UFC 309 Betting Preview

Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic headline a massive card as UFC 309 takes place at New York’s iconic Madison Square Garden this weekend. 

Jones defends his Heavyweight title for the first time against Miocic, who is widely regarded as the UFC’s greatest ever in the division of giants.

As well as breakout stars like Bo Nickal and Mauricio Ruffy on the card, there is an intriguing co-main event in store as Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler go head-to-head in a rematch of their 2021 thriller.

Main Card

• Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic – UFC Heavyweight title
• Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
• Bo Nickal  vs.  Paul Craig
• Karine Silva  vs.  Viviane Araujo
• Mauricio Ruffy  vs.  James Llontop

Jon Jones to Win & Under 3.5 Rounds – 8/15 – Bet365

Jon Jones remains at the top of most people’s list when it comes to the greatest of all time in the UFC, with Stipe Miocic usually considered the greatest heavyweight. Both have the stats to back up their claims, with Jones, in particular, having set records for most title defences, most wins and longest win streak at Light Heavyweight.

Becoming the UFC’s youngest-ever champion aged 23, the American has beaten every style possible, more often than not at their own game with his elite striking, grappling and high fight IQ. Vacating his 205 lb title in 2020 to pursue a move to Heavyweight, Jones won the title in 2023, submitting Ciryl Gane in the first round.

Miocic has the most Heavyweight title defences with three in his first reign as champion, which included a win over a surging Francis Ngannou. A loss to Daniel Cormier was the start of a trilogy Miocic eventually won 2-1, regaining and defending his belt before losing it again when being knocked out viciously by Ngannou in their 2021 rematch.

That was the last time Miocic stepped into the Octagon and now, at 42, will have to roll back the clock one last time if he is to dethrone Jones. However, Jones looked on point in his Heavyweight debut and is expected to continue to be more ruthless in his new division.

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler – Under 2.5 rounds – 2/5 BetMGM

This rematch of Oliveira and Chandler’s shot at the Vacant Lightweight title in 2021 is expected to be another shootout.

In the wake of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s retirement, Oliveira got his hand raised by a second-round TKO in what was a wild fight where Chandler had some big moments in the first round. Ultimately neither fighter’s style is lent to the longevity of the 25 minute championship distance that this is booked for. 

Oliveira has only seen the final bell in four of his 33 UFC contests, with 20 of his 22 UFC wins ending inside the distance, with 16 wins by submission. Chandler is 2-3 in the UFC so far with only one fight going the distance, a three-round war with Justin Gaethje. 

The 38-year-old was last seen being submitted by Dustin Poirier in 2022, but has been out of action since as he waited on being Conor McGregor’s opponent on the Irishman’s yet-to-materialise return.

Win or lose, both of these two are here to entertain and another finish looks to be on the cards, with this one expected to play out in the first half of the fight.

Mauricio Ruffy to Win by KO, TKO or DQ – 4/6 Betano

Mauricio Ruffy can continue his five-win streak against fellow Contender Series alumni James Llontop.

Ruffy is 1-0 in the UFC, putting on a performance of the night display against Jamie Mullarkey in May, knocking his opponent out following a flying knee in the first round.

The 28-year-old, who hails from the emerging Fighting Nerds team, brings an explosive karate style and superb distance management.

Meanwhile, Llontop has yet to win in the UFC from two attempts, losing a split decision against Viacheslav Borshchev in August and being submitted in the first round on his UFC debut by Chris Padilla in April.

The 25-year-old throws high volume but the Brazilian’s defence is likely to more than stand up to this test. Ruffy has won all 10 of his pro fights by TKO and could well earn another one here.