UFC 279 Betting Preview – Chimaev vs Diaz

An intriguing tussle headlines a unique UFC card, with the young wolf Khamzat Chimaev facing the old dog Nate Diaz. Chimaev is coming off an enthralling win against Gilbert Burns, whereas Diaz’ last outing was a loss against the reigning champion Leon Edwards, who he rocked severely in the final round. Diaz is one of the biggest underdogs for a UFC main event at +850 against the UFC’s biggest hype train. Can Diaz shock the world again in his final octagon appearance? 

Chimaev vs Diaz – Chimaev by KO/TKO

The physical and mental edge clearly favours Chimaev due to the different stages each fighter is at in their careers. Every UFC fan knows Diaz has possessed a granite chin throughout his career. It was tested plenty of times against Jorge Masvidal and Leon Edwards in his last two fights. We also now know Chimaev has a granite chin due to the haymakers he took from Burns. Diaz’ game is more about volume compared to power, so you’d assume Chimaev is safe in that regard anyway. But what about cardio? This is Chimaev’s first five round fight, and he seemed understandably tired in his 3 round war with Burns. There is no such concern for Diaz, who has gone the championship distance 3 times in his UFC career, and runs triathlons for fun when he’s not lighting it up with USADA. There could be a similar turnout to UFC 196 where Conor McGregor went in guns blazing, only to gas himself out bouncing left hands off Diaz’ chin. The youthful ego and exuberance of Chimaev may be his undoing if he goes in too hard against the cardio king in the striking department.

Having said that, Chimaev has much better wrestling than McGregor, and his coach Andreas Michael will surely be looking for that wrestling game plan showcased in Chimaev’s previous UFC fights against McKee, Williams and Jingliang, after grilling him for standing up with Burns in his last fight. If Chimaev does decide to take it to the ground, I don’t see Diaz offering up too much resistance. Multiple rounds of top pressure may lead to severe ground and pound punishment. 

Furthermore, Diaz is not the same fighter who fought McGregor 6 years ago, having been inactive for long stretches and coming off two losses. Diaz’ body language and pre-fight talk is not filling me with much confidence either, giving off similar vibes to his brother Nick before his fight with Robbie Lawler. This is understandable, considering Diaz wanted out of the fight game, but had to honour his contract with the UFC, who have mercilessly put him up against their biggest prospect. These outside factors, coupled with the age disparity leaves me to believe Chimaev will dominate and end the fight within the distance. 

Getting Nick vs Robbie 2 flashbacks here pic.twitter.com/zwthrNltVI

— 231 Lb Crute🇦🇺🤝🇺🇦 (@Bendaman2001) September 8, 2022

Jingliang vs Ferguson – Li Jingliang by KO/TKO

Tony Ferguson faces a stiff test against Li Jingliang in the co-main event. In what looks to be a fun fight, I can’t see it going the distance. Ferguson is aiming for a career resurgence by moving back up to welterweight. Unfortunately, “El Cucuy” is also on the wane. He has lost his last 4 fights, with Michael Chandler sending him to the shadow realm last time out at 155 pounds. Li is a hard hitter at 170, and coming off a knockout win over Muslim Salikhov, a man who’d never been knocked out before. His knockout over the incredibly tough Santiago Ponzinibbio is also a real feather in his cap. This encounter will be a final indicator to see if Ferguson can still take punishment like he did during his incredible 12 fight win streak. Just think of those Cowboy and Edson Barboza wars and smile. The Barboza fight especially showed how Ferguson could get dropped but still be very dangerous on the ground. If that’s still the case, then Ferguson to win by submission is a fun outside bet. However, the more advisable bet after Ferguson’s recent results, and Jingliang’s brilliant performance in July, is to go for Li by knockout. 

Our perennial welterweight bruiser: "The Leech" Li Jingliang pic.twitter.com/hd1vchgtGW

— Miguel Class (@MigClass) September 9, 2022

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez – Holland by Decision

The real-life superhero Kevin Holland squares up against Daniel Rodriguez in a catchweight bout at 180 pounds. Rodriguez, who returns to the octagon after a year out recovering from a broken hand, is a crisp, technical boxer with notable wins over Kevin Lee and Mike Perry. Rodriguez is ranked 1st in the UFC for significant strikes per minute, having landed 8.24 on average at welterweight, but he gives up 7 inches in reach to Holland; the rangier, former middleweight. If he can clip Holland at that rate it will be mightily impressive. Holland is an eccentric, brilliant striker, and will be unlike anything Rodriguez has seen before. Holland has also fought at the top of the middleweight division, albeit losing to Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson because of their superior ground game. Holland’s perceived weaknesses against pressure wrestling is not likely to be exposed by Rodriguez however, who prefers to stand. It’s a close one to call, but Holland should just edge out a decision through his range and experience fighting high-level opponents. 

Batman Kevin Holland stops ANOTHER thief, this time right before fight night. you can’t make this up pic.twitter.com/MTLywbBcq8

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) June 18, 2022

Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson – Aldana by Decision

Irene Aldana returns after a 14 month layoff against Macy Chiasson in what could decide the next title challenger to Amanda Nunes. Aldana has fought the best of the UFC’s bantamweight division in Racquel Pennington and Holly Holm. She has a knockout win over the current no. 2 ranked fighter, Ketlen Vieira, showing she belongs at the top. Her boxing is beautiful to watch, with her rips to the body causing trouble for any opponent, and this may be a defining factor in the latter stages of the fight against Chiasson, who has stumbled against the top fighters. Aldana by decision

Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba – Cutelaba by KO/TKO

Two kooky characters open the main card, with both men coming off a loss. Walker, however, suffered a particularly brutal knockout to Jamahal Hill last time out, and has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. It’s a crossroads fight for both gentleman, but Cutelaba’s pressure against the fence will open up opportunities to hit Walker backing up, just like Hill did. I’m going for the Hulk by KO/TKO.