The Cincinnati Masters means more than most events of its size. Its proximity to the US Open, the final Grand Slam of the year, gives it additional prominence. For those targeting a good run at Flushing Meadows, the Cincinnati Masters presents an opportunity to build form and momentum. This is a crucial part of the season.
Of course, being a Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event it carries significant prestige of its own, but almost everything that unfolds at the Lindner Family Tennis Center next week will be seen through the prism of the US Open, and the race to finish as the year-end world number one in the ATP rankings.
Rafael Nadal announced his intention to compete at the Cincinnati Masters following a period sidelined through injury. The Spaniard hasn’t played since his withdrawal from the Wimbledon semi-finals due to an abdominal tear and so there are concerns over his match sharpness as he joins the North American hard court swing.
Such a good news!
Rafa Nadal will be in Cincinnati next week 🤠 pic.twitter.com/YFMPEXUgCG
— We Are Tennis (@WeAreTennis) August 10, 2022
Nadal is surely motivated by the chance to finish 2022 as the world number one. Novak Djokovic’s vaccination status means he is expected to miss both the Cincinnati Masters and US Open, presenting his Spanish rival with the opportunity to rise from number three to number one. That is almost certainly in Nadal’s mind.
Cincinnati hasn’t always been Nadal’s favourite hunting ground, but he has a 22-11 record at the Ohio event and won the title back in 2013. On top of this, Nadal has reached the quarter-finals or better seven times at the Cincinnati Masters, although he hasn’t played the tournament since 2017 when he lost to Nick Kyrgios in the final eight.
Kyrgios himself could be a threat in Ohio next week. The Australian is currently playing the best tennis of his career, backing up his run to the Wimbledon final with a title at the Citi Open and another run at the Montreal Masters. Kyrgios has always had the weapons to beat the best, but he now appears to be in a better mental condition too. At 10/1, he could be a good pick.
Technically, Daniil Medvedev (6/1 to win the Western & Southern Open) will be the man to beat at this year’s Cincinnati Masters. The Russian is the reigning world number one, but has struggled for form of late, most recently losing to Kyrgios in the round of 32 at the Montreal Masters. The North American hard courts normally bring the best out of Medvedev, but there are a lot of questions around the 26-year-old’s level right now.
Carlos Alcaraz (8/1 to win the title) shares the record with Nadal for the most titles won in 2022, but the young Spaniard suffered a disappointing defeat to Tommy Paul in Montreal. Interestingly, Alcaraz admitted feeling the pressure and so it’s possible the teenager will need to learn how to better handle the hefty expectations on his shoulders.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has looked strong at the Montreal Masters, where he was particularly impressive in a straight sets dismissal of Cameron Norrie, but he won’t have the support of a home crowd behind him in Cincinnati. Nonetheless, the hard courts are Auger-Aliassime’s best surface and he could be a threat over the next month or so heading into the US Open.
Taylor Fritz could be another relative outsider to go all the way in Cincinnati. The American is more confident in his own game than at any other point of his career. He won his first Masters 1000 title at Indian Wells earlier this year and pushed Nadal all the way in an epic Wimbledon quarter final. Fritz might have lost to Dan Evans in Montreal, but he now has the forehand to trouble most opponents – this is an area he has worked on. 20/1 represents good value here.
Serena Williams is expected to play in Cincinnati for the final time before retirement. The 40-year-old is on a farewell tour of North America as she prepares to bow out at the US Open. Williams has spoken about her desire to finish with one last Grand Slam title at Flushing Meadows, but her recent performance against Belinda Bencic in Toronto suggests that might be beyond her.
In Vogue’s September issue, @serenawilliams prepares to say farewell to tennis on her own terms and in her own words. “It’s the hardest thing that I could ever imagine,” she says. “I don’t want it to be over, but at the same time I’m ready for what’s next” https://t.co/6Zr0UXVTH1 pic.twitter.com/YtGtcc18a9
— Vogue Magazine (@voguemagazine) August 9, 2022
After stringing together a 37-match winning run over the spring and early summer, Iga Swiatek has struggled to find her best form of late. The world number one only made it as far as the third round at Wimbledon and suffered a shock loss to Beatriz Haddad Maia in Toronto. She could do with a deep run in Cincinnati to prepare for the US Open.
Ons Jabeur also suffered a disappointing loss in Toronto, losing in straight sets to unseeded Qinwen Zheng. The Tunisian made the Wimbledon final and was strong throughout the clay court season, but she has so far struggled to find her feet on the North American hard courts. That is a concern ahead of the US Open.
Looking beyond Williams, there will be a strong contingent of American women in Cincinnati. Coco Gauff continues to improve having made the quarter-finals of the Silicon Valley Classic, and a deep run in Toronto. Jessica Pegula is also a threat on hard courts, while Shelby Rogers is fresh from making the final at the Silicon Valley Classic.
Paula Badosa is another player with a record of playing her best tennis on the North American hard courts, and there have been signs that the Spaniard is building momentum in preparation for the US Open, making the semi-finals at the Silicon Valley Classic. The world number three certainly shouldn’t be discounted in Cincinnati.
Sascha Zverev and Ashleigh Barty won the men’s and women’s titles at last year’s Western & Southern Open, but nether player will be at this year’s tournament – Zverev is still recovering from a serious injury while Barty has retired from the sport. This has certainly served to further open the field for potential winners.
