Ferrari got what they wanted, and needed, at both the British and Austrian Grand Prix. A streak of five victories in six races saw Max Verstappen stretch his advantage at the top of the drivers’ championship standings with the Scuderia seemingly unable to find the reliability to stick with Red Bull. Since then, though, the dynamic has shifted once more.
Carlos Sainz’s victory at Silverstone and Charles Leclerc’s much-needed win at the Red Bull Ring have Ferrari in resurgent form ahead of this weekend’s French Grand Prix. The problem for the Scuderia, however, is that their two drivers are tripping over each other to be the one to challenge Verstappen. The consequence of this could be that neither do.
Red Bull have a clear team hierarchy where Sergio Perez plays second fiddle to Verstappen (11/8 favourite to win the French Grand Prix). The Mexican driver is still expected to contribute his fair share of points, but there is no ambiguity over who in the garage receives the favourable treatment when it comes to strategy and race vision. Verstappen is the number one at Red Bull.
R A C E 🇫🇷 W E E K #FrenchGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/qFTETSPM5v
— Formula 1 (@F1) July 18, 2022
Leclerc (17/10 to win this weekend) has cut Verstappen’s lead at the top of the drivers’ standings to just 11 points, so one might presume he is seen as Ferrari’s best hope. However, Sainz has also demonstrated his race-winning capacity and might feel he deserves just as much of an opportunity to prove he can win a world championship.
The upgrades made to Ferrari’s car since the Canadian Grand Prix in June have made a big difference. “We worked a lot on it. We introduced a new rear wing, only on one car to start [for Leclerc in Canada] and then on both cars since the UK,” explained Ferrari boss, Mattia Binotto. “We have closed the gap we had in terms of speed. I think they still have got a slight advantage, but very little or negligible.”
It’s not just Ferrari that have closed the performance gap on Red Bull in recent weeks. Mercedes have also been more competitive with a Silver Arrow finishing on the podium in each of the last four races. Circuit Paul Ricard has similar characteristics to Silverstone where Lewis Hamilton (9/1 to win his first race of the season in France) looked faster and stronger than he has at any other point this season. That bodes well for the seven-time world champion.
“We’ll expect them [Mercedes] to be quick in Ricard,” Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said. ‘They are showing flashes of being there or thereabouts. The last two races have been pretty decent for them and there’s been no sign I think of any porpoising at all, so they seem to be slowly bringing themselves back into the game.
“I think they will be a contender. They keep consistently scoring points. I’m not sure how far off they are in the constructors’ or drivers’ [championships] at the moment but sometimes having more cars in play is a good thing, sometimes it might be a bad thing. But I think for the fans it’s great to have six cars competing for victories.”
Get in there Lewis! ❤️ Throwback to 2018 and a #FrenchGP to remember when @LewisHamilton took his 44th win for the Team 🙌 pic.twitter.com/9G3mg8hIRz
— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) July 19, 2022
This is what F1 envisaged when they introduced new regulations for the 2022 season. Cars have been able to follow much more effectively this year and that has produced more sustained racing. With Ferrari and Mercedes finally getting to grips with the porpoising that dogged them in the first phase of the season, we could witness some memorable racing between now and the end of the season.
There are, of course, other storylines to follow. Alpine produced a strong double-points finish at the Austrian Grand Prix and will be hopeful of carrying that form into their home race where they will have the backing of the French crowd. Fernando Alonso and Esteban Ocon have built significant momentum and have given Alpine the edge in the battle to finish as the best of the midfield.
Mick Schumacher is in good form, claiming points in each of his last two races. The young German finished in the top six at the Austrian Grand Prix and can be hopeful of another strong showing at the French Grand Prix where he made his first ever Q2 appearance last year. The track should suit him.
Another simmering storyline concerns the driver market. It’s at this time of year that teams start to look ahead to the following season and some in the paddock might be considering a shakeup of their lineup. Among those could be McLaren who have a difficult decision to make on the future of Daniel Ricciardo.
Ricciardo is under contract until the end of 2023, but this season has been so underwhelming for the Australian that it would come as no surprise if McLaren are currently assessing different options. There is also seats available at six of the 10 teams on the grid, so there could be some movement over the coming months.
Circuit Paul Ricard is a well-rounded track in that it offers something of everything. It has flat-out straights and fast corners as well as slower, technical sections. It’s original status as a testing facility means it is designed to push the boundaries in a number of different ways, making it somewhat difficult to predict who might come out on top of any single race. The raft of upgrades expected will also make it tricky to plot the grid.
However, it would be surprising if the winner of this weekend’s French Grand Prix came from outside the big three teams. Mercedes are too far back to make a charge for either the drivers’ or constructors’ championship titles, but a strong second half of the season could hint at even better times to come in 2023. Red Bull should still have a slight advantage, but 2022 might not be the year of dominance for Verstappen, Perez, Horner et al that it looked like becoming only a few weeks ago.
