It turns out you can predict at least one thing about baseball in 2023: Larger bases, a pitch clock and a limitation on how often pitchers can throw to first base will in fact lead to a giant increase in stolen bases.
There have been 1,711 stolen bases in 2,378 games through Tuesday, an average of 0.72 steals per game — up from 2,486 steals over 4,860 games, or an average of 0.51 thefts per game, last season.
The current pace pro-rates to 3,500 steals — a nice, round number — over a full season, which would be the fourth-most all-time and the second-most since World War I behind only 1987 (3,585 steals).
Oakland Athletics speedster Esteury Ruiz leads the majors with 40 steals, just one shy of Jon Berti’s major league-leading total a year ago for the Miami Marlins and as many as Whit Merrifield had when he led the bigs in steals for the Kansas City Royals in 2021.
But Ruiz is no sure thing to finish the season as the big league leader. Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., who may be putting his five tools to use like no one in history, entered Wednesday with 35 steals and on pace to become the first player to finish with 30 homers and 60 steals in the same season.
And deep in the pack lies a freakishly talented rookie who could sprint his way into contention by the end of the summer. Here’s a look at Ruiz, Acuna and the surprise candidate, along with their odds of winning the stolen base crown and our prediction. All odds from FanDuel as of June 28.
Esteury Ruiz (-165)
It’s sort of ironic that Ruiz is a throwback to when there were fewer reminders of the limitations of a player whose one tool is his speed.
Omar Moreno stole 487 bases and batted out of the leadoff spot 3,631 times over 12 seasons while compiling an OPS+ of 79. Vince Coleman stole 752 bases and batted out of the leadoff spot 5,831 times while finishing with an OPS+ of 83.
Ruiz, who has batted ninth in two of the last three games, might not even finish the season as the leadoff batter for the Athletics, who are chasing the 1962 Mets for the most losses in the modern era.
While he is stealing bases at the same clip he did in the first two months — he has 12 steals in 15 attempts in June after swiping 28 bases in 32 attempts through May 31 — Ruiz’s peripheral numbers have all sunk this month. He is batting .247 with a .273 on-base percentage and a .306 slugging percentage, down from his season triple slash of .263/.318/.338.
Of course, Ruiz’s pursuit of the stolen base crown is already the only non-nihilistic reason to watch the Athletics, so it won’t be a surprise if he’s vaulted back into the leadoff spot and given the green light to run for a team that plays its games at Rickey Henderson Field.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+125)
Acuna’s problem might be hitting the ball out of the yard too much. The 25-year-old superstar has 19 homers among his 43 extra-base hits, or 18 more homers and 23 more extra-base hits than Ruiz.
Acuna has homered leading off a game three times this season and has eight homers leading off an inning. Simply put, there are fewer bases for Acuna to steal than Ruiz.
And it might not matter. As the entrenched leadoff batter for a team on pace to win 100-plus games, Acuna is going to get more chances to get on base than run than Ruiz as he bounces between the top and bottom of the order for the 100-something loss Athletics.
Acuna is also chasing history. Only two players — Eric Davis (37 homers, 50 steals) in 1987 and Barry Bonds (33 homers, 52 steals) in 1990 — have ever finished with at least 30 homers and 50 steals.
Acuna is on pace to get there at some point in August, after which he can begin pursing the most rarefied of air: A 40/40 season (achieved only by Bonds, Jose Canseco, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) and whatever comes thereafter. A 40/50 season? A 40/60 season? A 40/70 season? A 50/50 season? It’s mind-boggling to think of what he can achieve.
Elly De La Cruz (+10000)
Speaking of mind-boggling potential! De La Cruz, the heir to Davis as a do-everything talent wearing no. 44 for the Cincinnati Reds, has three homers and eight RBIs in his first 19 games since being promoted to the majors on June 6. That’s 24 homers and 63 steals pro-rated over 150 games, which seems like the floor for a 21-year-old who already looks like he can do things no one’s ever done on a diamond.
De La Cruz isn’t going to make a run at 30/30 this year, but his current stolen base clip puts him on pace to finish with 43 steals, assuming he plays everyday the rest of the way for the Reds.
It’s also fair to assume De La Cruz will increase his pace as he gets more comfortable and established. Let’s say that translates to an extra one-third of a stolen base per game. That would be 62 more steals, giving him 70 for the year.
Suddenly, the margin for error — via injury, ineffectiveness or just fewer opportunities — is thinner for Ruiz and Acuna. De La Cruz believes he is the fastest man on Earth. Who are we to argue that he can’t display that by making up
THE PICK: Acuna is putting together the type of season that may never be seen again. The Braves are going to win the NL East going away, which will provide them an opportunity to let Acuna run wild in September…at least when he’s not hitting the ball out of the yard.
