I’m in a predictions rut, which means only one thing: dominance should come due in Week 8.
Here are my NFL picks against the spread for each game this week. Odds via BetMGM on October 26th.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills
Thursday, October 26th, 2023
The Bills have been a pain to forecast this season, but despite underwhelming showings the past two weeks, the oddsmakers still have faith.
As do I. Baker Mayfield could be in for a tough night against a defense that should bounce back in an advantageous matchup.
Score prediction: Bills 23, Buccaneers 13
Pick: Bills -9.5
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Rams are No. 7 in offensive efficiency this season and their passing game could give Dallas trouble.
The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team and they are playing at home, but this spread is too big for my liking.
In fact, I think Los Angeles will be very competitive, making the +220 moneyline worth a look.
Score prediction: Rams 27, Cowboys 24
Pick: Rams +6.5
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Vikings are back from the dead, while the Packers are slinking into irrelevance.
Jordan Love does not look like a franchise quarterback thus far, and even on the road I think Minnesota’s offensive firepower will win out.
The Vikings are legitimate wild card hunters after an abysmal start.
Score prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 19
Pick: Vikings -1.5
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
It’s Will Levis time for the Titans (and maybe Malik Willis, too!). While Ryan Tannehill is no longer a strong starting quarterback, he’s still much better than the youngsters who will be taking the field on Sunday.
I think the Falcons’ defense is going to feast.
Score prediction: Falcons 24, Titans 13
Pick: Falcons -3
New Orleans Saints (-1) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
I initially felt like this was a bit of an overreaction to New Orleans’ struggles last week on national television, but indeed the Colts have been pretty damn good from an advanced metrics perspective.
These are definitely two middle-of-the-pack teams so I’ll go with the home underdog.
Score prediction: Colts 21, Saints 20
Pick: Colts +1
New England Patriots (+9.5) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Dolphins need to prove they can beat upper-tier opponents but New England is not that. Tyreek Hill seems to be on track to play, which is crucial.
Miami is the pick to get back on track by running the Patriots out of the stadium.
Score prediction: Dolphins 31, Patriots 17
Pick: Dolphins -9.5
New York Jets (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
Tyrod Taylor has looked solid in Daniel Jones’ stead but I think the Jets’ pass-rush is going to get after him in this one. Taylor is mobile but has a tendency to hold onto the ball at times, and that will be exacerbated by the Jets’ strong cornerback group.
The Jets are the pick to win and cover behind a strong defensive effort.
Score prediction: Jets 20, Bills 16
Pick: Jets -3
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Steelers are now 4-2 but I refuse to believe in them. The Jaguars are the superior group, and yes, Pittsburgh has a very good defense, but the Jaguars should be well-rested and ready to continue their hot run of late.
Kenny Pickett has been good the past couple of weeks but I believe the Pittsburgh quarterback will take a step back against the Jaguars.
Score prediction: Jaguars 21, Steelers 14
Pick: Jaguars -3
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Eagles are top-10 in DVOA on offense, defense and special teams. The Commanders are bottom-20 in all three categories.
Don’t think this one remains close, and I love having a touchdown margin result in a cover.
Score prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 16
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Houston Texans (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has been really good this year, and may give an in-person performance that reminds the Panthers that they made a mistake by taking Bryce Young No. 1 overall in the draft.
Stroud has a yards per attempt of 7.8 this season with nine touchdowns and only one interception. Young, meanwhile, has struggled badly, and faces a defense that has looked really good lately.
A Carolina win would be very, very good for the Cardinals’ draft positioning, but I don’t see it happening.
Score prediction: Texans 24, Panthers 17
Pick: Texans -3.5
Cleveland Browns (+4) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
Deshaun Watson is out again this week, and while the Cleveland defense is great, the Seahawks are good enough on offense to move the ball and get some points.
Seattle is a well-rounded team that doesn’t get mentioned much among the NFC contenders but probably should be. I think the Seahawks are on par with the Lions and Cowboys and just a small notch below the Eagles and 49ers.
Score prediction: Seahawks 23, Browns 16
Pick: Seahawks -4
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Chiefs are up to No. 5 in defensive efficiency, which is getting quite overlooked. They are a very well-balanced team and I don’t think the Broncos will be able to slow down the Kansas City offense again.
Chiefs are the pick to run away with this one.
Score prediction: Chiefs 28, Broncos 17
Pick: Chiefs -7
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The Ravens are dominating on both sides of the ball, up to No. 1 in Team DVOA and top-five in offense and defense. Lamar Jackson is going to be an absolute handful for the defense, but it may actually be a good thing that the Cardinals aren’t facing a traditional dropback passer, because those guys have eaten them up lately.
On the other side, even though Joshua Dobbs has struggled lately, I think he performs better in this one despite Baltimore’s talent on defense.
This spread feels too large considering Arizona is at home.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Cardinals 20
Pick: Cardinals +9.5
Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
The 49ers are likely to go with Sam Darnold against the Bengals. And while everyone has been quick to devalue Brock Purdy’s contributions to the San Francisco offense, I don’t think Darnold will be as productive.
The Bengals are finally finding their rhythm and an upset would not surprise me at +145 moneyline odds.
Score prediction: Bengals 24, 49ers 21
Pick: Bengals +3.5
Chicago Bears (+8.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 29th, 2023
Tyson Bagent played well last week but I’m always ready for backup quarterbacks to drop a stinker. Plus, Justin Herbert should be salivating to go against a weak Bears defense.
I feel like I’ve been wrong about the Chargers every week but I’m not going to abandon them now.
Score prediction: Chargers 33, Bears 17
Pick: Chargers -8.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) at Detroit Lions
Monday, October 30th, 2023
The Lions are a good team but I’m just not sure they have crossed over to great. The Raiders are certainly in shambles, per usual, but Jimmy Garoppolo is practicing again, and I like Las Vegas to stay close enough to cover this one provided he plays.
Score prediction: Lions 27, Raiders 21
Pick: Raiders +8.5
Last Week’s Record: 6-7
Overall: 56-47-2
