We’ve got a good one on tap for Thursday Night Football, as the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals host the undefeated Miami Dolphins.
Miami is dealing with some key injuries, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle seem primed to play. The Bengals are the favorites to even their record at 2-2 on the year.
There are plenty more wagers beyond the spread, moneyline and scoring total. Here are my three favorite prop bets:
Tyreek Hill under 75.5 receiving yards (-104)
The Dolphins have not been shy about chirping at Eli Apple this week, basically telling him that Tyreek Hill is going to eat him for lunch on Thursday night. There is no doubting Hill’s talent, but I think that has actually played into a bunch of over bets and this total continuing to elevate.
It’s gotten too high for me. Even though Apple won’t be able to stop Hill on his own, the Bengals’ defense has been the sixth-best group in the NFL at slowing No. 1 wide receivers, per DVOA.
Hill is averaging career-highs in catches per game and yardage early in his Miami tenure, but I think they will regress some. Plus, the Dolphins have enough other weapons to choose if Hill is given major attention by the Cincinnati defense.
I’m well aware of the downside of this bet, because Cheetah can peace sign me to oblivion with one long run. But this number seems high, so I take the under and hold my breath.
Joe Burrow over 35.5 pass attempts (-121)
Burrow has gone over this figure in all three games this season, and with the run-game struggles in the earlygoing, I think Cincinnati will just double down on attacking through the air.
The star quarterback wants to take his downfield shots, but the Dolphins may choose to limit that with two high safeties, forcing him into more underneath throws.
The Bengals may try a decent amount of short stuff to players like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in place of a traditional run game, which would be a boon for the passing attempts.
The Bengals are the favorites in this one, and if they lead late, an aerial attack won’t be needed, so that is a concern. However, Cincy dominated the Jets last time out and Burrow still threw the ball 36 times, which is why the over is the easy call for me.
Chase Edmonds over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)
We went with Edmonds in Week 1 and it paid off easily. The receiving yardage total was inflated in recent weeks so we wisely stayed away, but it’s time to go back to the well.
While Raheem Mostert is now splitting carries in the backfield, their track records suggest that Edmonds is going to get the lion’s share of the work in the receiving game.
He only had one target last week, but Miami was only on the field for 43 offensive snaps. That number should be back up near the normal 60 or 70 in this one, and the Dolphins are underdogs, which means they could be throwing late.
Edmonds only needs a couple of catches to surpass this receiving total.
Overall prop bets record: 16-12
