The Arizona Cardinals are a divisive team heading into 2022.
Some believe injuries were the main thing that derailed a potential Super Bowl campaign last year. Others saw a second-half collapse that exposed organizational flaws.
The decision-makers believe in the former, as owner Michael Bidwill and GM Steve Keim returned the core of the 2021 group and eschewed any major moves in free agency.
We will finally have some clarity on whether they made the right call, beginning Sunday when the Cardinals host the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here are my five big takeaways heading into the game:
Injuries are Already Affecting Arizona
The Cardinals are banking on players like defensive tackle J.J. Watt, tight end Zach Ertz, running back James Conner, wide receiver Rondale Moore and center Rodney Hudson to play key roles in a successful campaign.
All of them, though, are either injury-prone, old, or both. It feels like availability is a key to Arizona’s season, and already Watt, Ertz and Moore could miss the opener.
The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites in this game but that spread is now up to six. That hasn’t deterred bettors, as Kansas City is the most-bet side of an NFL game in Week 1, according to BetMGM.
The Defense Might Get Shredded
The Cardinals finished No. 6 in defensive efficiency last season, per Football Outsiders, but some outlier production already warned of regression ahead. Then the team let Chandler Jones, Jordan Hicks, Robert Alford, Jordan Phillips and others depart, which has led to a bottom-five projection in 2022.
Jordan Phillips sacks per season in AZ: 2.5
Jordan Phillips sacks in the first half: 2
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 9, 2022
Is that too drastic? Maybe. But if Watt and Markus Golden don’t play on Sunday, the starting defensive front could feature a quintet of below average producers: Dennis Gardeck and Devon Kennard at edge rusher, with Zach Allen, Rashard Lawrence and Michael Dogbe on the defensive line.
The cornerback issues are nearly as ominous. Byron Murphy is a potential star, but when he is playing in the slot, the Cardinals will line up Marco Wilson and (fill in a no-name backup here) on the outside.
The Chiefs don’t have Tyreek Hill any longer, but Patrick Mahomes could feast on Sunday. It’s understandable why the Kansas City scoring total has been listed at 30.5 points.
Mahomes’ passing yardage total sits at 292.5, which is the highest among any quarterback in the NFL heading into Week 1. Tight end Travis Kelce is expected to be his main weapon, but I actually don’t think he’s going to hit the over on his receiving projection.
The Cardinals were excellent against tight ends last season, and Isaiah Simmons has the athletic ability to stick with Kelce well enough in coverage. Bank on the receivers outperforming their projections this week for Kansas City.
Are there Enough Playmakers on Offense?
It’s easy to dream about this Arizona offense when DeAndre Hopkins gets back. He will team with Hollywood Brown as an elite outside receiver tandem, with the intriguing Moore taking over full-time duties in the slot and Ertz at tight end.
But for this game, at least, I wonder about Arizona’s offensive ceiling. Hopkins is suspended for the first six weeks, while Ertz and Moore are the aforementioned question marks.
Brown has elite speed and figures to get a deluge of targets, but there is noticeable drop-off after that. One player that does intrigue me? Speedy wide receiver Greg Dortch, who could fill in for Moore in the slot.
When the news of Moore’s hamstring injury broke, Dortch was still available at +1300 odds to score an anytime touchdown at DraftKings. Now those odds are all the way down to +250. It’s a reminder to stay on top of the news, and to also be signed up with multiple sportsbooks to compare odds.
The Kansas City defense is not good, so Arizona should be able to move the ball decently well, but it must score touchdowns consistently to keep up with the Chiefs, and I have my doubts about that in Week 1.
One way a bettor may benefit? By taking the over on Kyler Murray’s rushing yards. If the skill players are not separating consistently enough, he will need to make plays with his feet.
What’s with the Increasing Spread?
The Cardinals were favored in every home game last season, but it was understandable when Kansas City opened as three-point road favorites in this one.
However, the money poured in on the Chiefs at that figure, and now the line has ballooned all the way up to six points. Kansas City is a solid moneyline favorite despite being on the road, as most bettors believe it would be a decently sizable upset for Arizona to take this one.
NFL Week 1 betting at @BetMGM
Most bet games (tickets)
1. Chiefs-Cardinals
2. Ravens-Jets
3. Eagles-LionsMost bet teams (tickets)
1. Chiefs -6
2. Ravens -7
3. Broncos -6.5Most bet teams (handle)
1. Chiefs -6
2. Ravens -7
3. Broncos -6.5— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 9, 2022
There is a lot of optimism locally surrounding the Cardinals, as many expect them to find the groove that was present at the first half of last season. But the sharps don’t feel the same way, as the Cardinals are not getting much love on the betting market.
For Arizona fans who were going to bet on the Cardinals no matter what, it does mean some better odds both on the moneyline and the spread.
How Much Will This Game Tell Us?
The Cardinals are in the second-to-last year of Kyler Murray’s rookie contract, which has given them ample salary cap space to load up with star personnel around him.
The Bills are a great example of a team that took advantage, as Buffalo GM Brandon Beane did a masterful job of building that roster around Josh Allen heading into 2022 (which was on full display in the Thursday night blowout of the Rams).
The big names are certainly present in Arizona, as players like J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins, Rodney Hudson and Zach Ertz have had terrific careers.
The question, though: Is the group good enough to contend in 2022? Some of those players are past their prime, and the Cardinals’ Super Bowl odds steadily got longer this offseason due to curious inactivity in addressing weaknesses.
Even at +4000 odds, I don’t think the Cardinals are a good bet right now. But if Murray puts on a show and outduels Mahomes despite short-handedness on both sides of the ball, suddenly the tenor of the season is shaken up after only one game.
The NFL is so varied week-to-week that we can never take everything from one contest. However, Arizona’s road blowout of Tennessee in last year’s opener was indeed a harbinger of things to come.
This one may be just as telling.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Cardinals 24
Spread: Kansas City -6
Scoring total: Over
