After the Bills-Rams appetizer on Thursday night, the full smorgasbord of Week 1 football games are on tap Sunday.
I made my spread predictions and chose my anytime touchdown scorers already.
I'm going to pick every game against the spread this season. Here are my Week 1 predictions. Fully expecting a 16-0 start.https://t.co/L6RkMZ5IhP
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 8, 2022
Lastly, here are three prop bets I like as the 2022 regular season gets underway
Dolphins RB Chase Edmonds over 16.5 receiving yards (-114)
The former Cardinals running back has joined a new team in 2022. It’s a bit of an unknown how Edmonds will be used by new coach Mike McDaniel, but there is every indication that he will have a significant role on offense.
Edmonds’ rushing total is listed at 38.5 yards in this one, but I’m much more comfortable jumping on the receiving yardage figure.
Edmonds runs some of the crispest routes among running backs in the NFL, and ex-teammates have raved about his football IQ when plays go off-schedule. If Tua Tagovailoa is looking for a dump-off, expect Edmonds to find a soft spot in the defense to grab some yardage.
Edmonds averaged more than 25 receiving yards per game in each of his past two seasons. New offense and new quarterback, yes, but his receiving skills make this an easy call.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow over 22.5 completions (-114)
The Bengals’ star quarterback was unreal down the stretch of the 2021 regular season. He averaged 369 passing yards per game in his final four, with 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions, 10.5 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 135.9. For an encore, Burrow led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl.
Now the $64,000 question: Can he keep it up to start 2022?
The Steelers have the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL entering the season, according to Football Outsiders, so it won’t be an easy game for the Bengals to dominate. And that’s why my favorite bet is centered on Burrow’s completions.
He led the NFL in both completion percentage and Completion Percentage Over Expectation in 2021. So Burrow is a well-established pinpoint passer, and I believe the Steelers will choose to rush four or five most of the time while playing two-high safeties on the back end. Even without blitzing, the duo of T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward can get pressure, which means a lot of short stuff might be coming.
Add it all up, and 23 or more completions is the play.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce under 76.5 receiving yards
Kansas City heads to Arizona with everyone expecting offensive fireworks. Without Tyreek Hill around to gobble up targets, no one would bat an eye if one of the game’s pre-eminent tight ends finished with 80-plus receiving yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
However, I like the under. The Cardinals gave up the second-fewest yards in the NFL to tight ends last season, per Football Outsiders, and the main reason for that was the presence of linebacker Isaiah Simmons, safety Budda Baker and safety Jalen Thompson.
The Cardinals have serious cornerback questions heading into this matchup, but that trio should once again be tasked with slowing down Kelce. The Chiefs could have such an advantage at receiver that Patrick Mahomes will be looking out there the most.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is a guy I like to hit the over on receiving yards in this one, but I feel most confident about Kelce going under his total.
