Week 1 NFL Betting Observations: Bills Now Favored Over Rams, No Love for the Cardinals and More

The Week 1 NFL regular season lines have been available for about three months now at Caesars Sportsbook, so let’s take stock of some notable trends.

Bills Go From Underdog to Favorite Against Rams

One of the most obvious changes has been the spread shift in the most marquee game of the first week. The Buffalo Bills opened as 1-point road underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams, but are now listed as 2.5-point favorites.

It’s an eye-opening line considering the Rams are coming off a Super Bowl championship and get this game at home. However, Buffalo heads into the season as this year’s favorite, and there is some early concern about Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s elbow after reports surfaced that Los Angeles is managing his workload in camp.

The Bills are the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl and Josh Allen is the preseason favorite to win MVP.

What a year this could be in Buffalo.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 9, 2022

This is the only game in which one team started as the underdog and is now the favorite. It also represents the biggest line shift among any Week 1 contests.

I’m on board with the movement. I liked the Bills by a score of 31-28 when the schedule first came out and am sticking to it.

The Cardinals Are Not Getting Much Love

The Arizona Cardinals are at home for their regular season opener, but get a really tough matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Arizona will be without DeAndre Hopkins due to a suspension, but the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, so when it comes to absent superstar receivers, that’s a wash.

But the oddsmakers still believe in the Chiefs, as they opened as three-point road favorites for this game. The betting public is even higher on Kansas City, as a whopping 88% of the money is coming in on the Chiefs to cover the spread. Only three teams — the Saints, 49ers and Broncos — have a higher percentage of total dollars wagered on them in Week 1.

The line remains at three points, and for the record, I’m on Kansas City to cover as well.

The Saints-Falcons Line Is Moving

New Orleans opened as a three-point road favorite for its opener in Atlanta, and the betting public loved that line. The Saints have been backed by an incredible 98% of the money at Caesars, which has resulted in an odds shift.

The Saints are now 5.5-point favorites, which is much closer to my prediction of a 27-20 New Orleans victory.

One caveat that is worth mentioning: Jameis Winston wasn’t at practice on Tuesday due to a foot or ankle injury, and while it’s reportedly minor, that is a situation to watch. Winston isn’t mobile, but if he’s further hampered in the opener, that could affect the spread.

The Falcons may have won seven games last season, but everyone knows this is a major rebuilding year for them, and the public does not have much faith they can get the job done in the opener.

Here are all the current Week 1 lines at Caesars:

• Bills (-2.5) at Rams
• Steelers (+6.5) at Bengals
• 49ers (-6.5) at Bears
• Ravens (-6) at Jets
• Saints (-5.5) at Falcons
• Eagles (-4) at Lions
• Colts (-8) at Texans
• Jaguars (+3.5) at Commanders
• Chiefs (-3) at Cardinals
• Raiders (+3.5) at Chargers
• Giants (+6.5) at Titans
• Buccaneers (-2) at Cowboys
• Broncos (-5) at Seahawks