The Week 1 slate wraps up on Monday night as Russell Wilson returns to Seattle with his new team, the Broncos. There is one Wilson prop bet I fancy, along with a pair centered on Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny.
You can also check out my pick against the spread:
I'm 11-4 against the spread heading into Monday Night Football.
Check out if I like the Seahawks (+6.5) or Broncos to cover:https://t.co/L6RkMZ5IhP
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 12, 2022
Let’s dig in.
Rashaad Penny over 15.5 carries (-125)
The NFL has morphed to a quarterback-dependent passing league, and teams often rely on two running backs to split carries. Neither seems to be true in Seattle, where Pete Carroll’s dreams of a run-first attack can now be fully realized with Russell Wilson on the other sideline.
Penny’s had an injury-plagued career but was phenomenal down the stretch of 2021, carrying the ball 92 times for 671 yards and six touchdowns in the Seahawks’ final five games. With rookie Kenneth Walker questionable due to a hernia injury, this could be the Penny show.
The Broncos will be able to stack the box with Geno Smith at quarterback, so I don’t know if he will surpass 68.5 rushing yards, but I believe Carroll will happily give Penny the ball throughout the contest, resulting in 16 or more rushing attempts.
Russell Wilson under 22.5 pass completions (-104)
Will Russ cook with Denver? He was never able to in Seattle, and it will be interesting to see what kind of game-plan the Broncos unveil in Wilson’s revenge game against the Seahawks.
There are clearly some ruffled feathers between the two sides, and Wilson wants nothing more than to stick it to his former team.
However, Denver has a solid rushing attack and I think the Broncos will stay pretty balanced in this contest. And Wilson has always been a guy who is willing to take deep downfield shots, which keeps his completions down.
Last season, Wilson surpassed 22.5 completions in only two of 14 starts. This is a new team with a new philosophy, but he’s also facing an opponent that is going to run the ball a lot and shorten the game.
It feels like this total is too high due to the narrative of Wilson returning to Seattle. I like the under on completions.
Rashaad Penny anytime touchdown scorer (+170)
While the over on 15.5 rushing attempts has become the solid favorite, here is an underdog Penny play that I like. The Seahawks are expected to struggle on offense this season, and two touchdowns in this one seems like the most likely total.
Will Penny get one of those? At +170, I’m wagering he does.
Penny could get almost all of the carries in this contest, and has the pure ability to break a long score. And if the football is inside the 5, he is a big back with the ability to push defenders into the end zone.
Penny and DK Metcalf have similar anytime touchdown odds, but I prefer going with the running back who will get a heavier volume of touches.
