It is officially put-up-or-shut-up time for Tua Tagovailoa.
The Miami Dolphins have gone on a tremendous shopping spree this offseason, revamping their offense and giving the third-year quarterback everything he needs to succeed.
- An improved offensive line: With Terron Armstead and Connor Williams on the way, the group should be much better.
- Skill weapons: How about Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Cedrick Wilson to go along with holdovers Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki?
- A head coach focused on offense: Brian Flores unquestionably received a raw deal in Miami, but Tua should nonetheless benefit from the hire of 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel.
Tagovailoa was the No. 5 overall pick of the 2020 draft, and no one will soon forget he went one choice before Justin Herbert. It’s a near-guarantee that Herbert finishes with a better career, as the Chargers’ signal-caller is already among the best young gunslingers in the NFL, and we’ve now reached a crossroads for Tagovailoa.
Dolphins skill group for Tua:
WR Tyreek Hill
WR Jaylen Waddle
WR Cedrick Wilson
WR DeVante Parker
RB Chase Edmonds
RB Raheem Mostert
TE Mike Gesicki— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) March 23, 2022
The 24-year-old was No. 20 in expected points added per play and No. 18 in Total QBR in 2021. While not great rankings, those were at least an improvement from his rookie season.
If Tua can continue his progression and get a boost from a more talented squad around him, there is still hope he can live up to his draft status. However, there are definite concerns, as Tagovailoa has a career yards per attempt figure of 6.6, which is solidly below average and needs to inflate this season.
The Dolphins are undoubtedly going to stress teams horizontally in 2022, as Waddle and Hill are dynamic players that can turn simple bubble screens or jet sweeps into big plays.
🐆 checking in. #FinsUp x @cheetah pic.twitter.com/wTehGKeqUI
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) March 24, 2022
But in order for Miami to go from an average team to a great one — the Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds are still only +5000, per BetMGM — Tagovailoa will need to scare teams vertically, which he hasn’t done often enough early in his career.
If not, defenses can press up and use strength in numbers to corral Hill and Waddle. In college football, players like those two wreak havoc no matter the quarterback because their extreme talent wins out.
But in the NFL, defenses are too fast and coordinated for even the most dynamic individual players to dominate without the proper offensive balance.
This is a pivotal season for Tagovailoa, because if he cannot succeed with so much talent around him, the Dolphins will undoubtedly be in the quarterback market next offseason.
And even after their aggressive push this offseason, they have some interesting resources to dangle. The Dolphins have two first-round picks next season, their own and San Francisco’s from the Trey Lance trade.
