The playoff field is set and the Super Bowl is right around the corner. Green Bay and Tennessee are the respective No. 1 seeds, but will they be taking the field in Los Angeles or will there be upsets along the way?
It’s unlikely the entire postseason is chalk so who is best positioned to exceed expectations?
Here’s a look at why the San Francisco 49ers are the Wild Card team with the best chance at making a Super Bowl run.
Quarterback
Is Jimmy Garoppolo the best quarterback in the league? No. Is he better than he’s often given credit for? Absolutely.
While many were critiquing his every throw or calling for Trey Lance to take over, Garoppolo put together a solid season, completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,810 yards and 20 touchdowns (12 interceptions). The 49ers will have to win on the road and Garoppolo did some of his best work away from the Bay Area this season, completing 69% of his passes with a 101.4 passer rating (95.4 at home) and, most importantly, a 6-2 record.
This might be Jimmy Garoppolo's most impactful play he's made all season long. Steps up in the pocket to avoid the rush, hits Deebo Samuel right in the honey hole.
Throw gets right over Jalen Ramsey's fingertips to jump-start this final drive. Legendary stuff from 10. pic.twitter.com/2SaMIPH1VS
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 11, 2022
Not only did Garoppolo produce for the bulk of the season — yes, he certainly had some struggles — he also has valuable playoff experience. Garoppolo is 3-1 in the postseason and is the only Wild Card quarterback, except for Ben Roethlisberger, who has played in the playoffs. Garoppolo knows the stakes are raised and has proven he’s capable of taking a team to the Super Bowl.
Playmakers
Although quarterbacks get the bulk of the credit (and blame), they need help, and San Francisco is well positioned here. Aside from the Cardinals, no Wild Card team has a 1-2 punch of playmakers as explosive and versatile as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
Samuel does it all for San Francisco, tallying 1,770 yards and 14 touchdowns (six receiving, eight rushing) this season. What’s more, Samuel also threw a 24-yard touchdown pass in Week 18 against the Rams. In the playoffs, when playing tight games against the best coaches and teams in the league, having a player who can score from anywhere on the field in a variety of ways is immensely valuable.
Deebo Samuel this season
💥 1,405 receiving yards
💥 6 receiving TDs
💥 8 rushing TDs
💥 4.7 rushing yards after contact per attempt (1st among all players)Elite offensive weapon 🚀 pic.twitter.com/uXkR1MRWZe
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 11, 2022
Kittle provides another big-play threat in the passing game and also serves as a safety net for Garoppolo. One of the best tight ends in football, Kittle racked up 910 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games this season. The Dallas defense has defended tight ends well this season, but Kittle is a special talent and could be a difference maker.
Defense
The 49ers finished third in total defense, giving up just 310 yards per game and held their opponents under 20 points in three of the final four games. In a league that is increasingly catering to offenses, strong defenses usually win in the playoffs, especially on the road. That, along with a rushing attack that averaged 127 yards per game on the ground, should help San Francisco control the clock and keep games close into the second half.
Experience/Momentum
Simply put, the playoffs are different. The atmosphere isn’t the same as the regular season and all teams respond differently. San Francisco has been in this environment before, playing its way to the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. That experience will be meaningful as the team navigates the pressure cooker that is the NFL’s postseason. San Francisco knows what it takes to win in January and is also riding a wave of momentum, having navigated its way through a tough NFC West and winning seven of its past nine games.
Other Wild Card Teams
Let’s also take a quick look at the other Wild Card teams and why they don’t appear to be as likely to get to the Super Bowl.
Raiders: Las Vegas’ negative-65 point-differential is the worst among playoff teams (Pittsburgh, at negative-55, is the next closest) and the Raiders’ defense, which gave up 25.8 points per game (26th in the league) is among the worst in the postseason in several categories.
Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger guiding his team to the playoffs in what is believed to be his final season is a nice story, but Pittsburgh went just 3-5 on the road and has struggled to score.
Patriots: New England’s defense has been impressive, but Mac Jones doesn’t scare defensive coordinators and the rest of the offense lacks playmakers.
Cardinals: Arizona is certainly capable of making a run and, to be candid, this article came down to the Cardinals and the 49ers. Arizona’s roster is loaded, but it’s time to produce. Since taking over as the head coach, Kliff Kingsbury is 6-10 in December and January. He had late-season collapses during his college coaching days too, so until he makes the necessary adjustments, doubters will persist.
Eagles: Philadelphia has exceeded expectations and won four of its final five games to clinch a spot in the playoffs. However, potential back-to-back road games against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers seems like it’ll be too much to overcome.
