The 2021-22 NBA season has been anything but what was expected for the Portland Trail Blazers. After an off-season centered around a flurry of win-now moves, a coaching change for the first time in nearly a decade, and a shifting change in temperament from franchise star Damian Lillard, the pressure was on before media day even started.
Fast forward: The Blazers have fired longtime general manager Neil Olshey. Lillard has struggled with an abdominal injury much of the year, hasn’t played in 2022, and may not play the rest of the season. Two weeks ago, Portland put another significant notch in a teardown, shipping out CJ McCollum to the Pelicans a few days after trading off Norman Powell and Robert Covington to the Clippers.
The Blazers are unrecognizable compared to the recent era outside of starting center Jusuf Nurkic, yet somehow, that’s been a boon for the team. They’ve gone 4-0 since the trade deadline, including victories over the Lakers, Bucks, and Grizzlies headed into the All-Star Break.
While this run certainly doesn’t signify the future of the organization or impending winning play, there’s real reason to be intrigued by the on-court product we’ve seen.
Since the turn of the calendar, fourth-year guard Anfernee Simons is averaging 23.6 points per game on 61% true-shooting (5% above league average). I’m not ready to say he’s a better player than CJ McCollum, but that’s coming in due time.
OH it's like THAT?
My word, Anfernee Simons pic.twitter.com/kI0srB5jUf
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) February 18, 2022
He’s absolutely canning his jumpers; 41.8% on nearly 11 per game, hitting 39.2% of his pull-up threes in February (6.4 per game). Along with his tightened handle, he’s opened the court for himself, allowing for more interior probing on drives, and opportunities to flex his budding playmaking chops.
I used to get frustrated with the organization and their unwillingness to part with Simons in a trade; I get it now. You can quibble over whether or not moving him in years prior moved the needle for Portland, but it’s hard to argue now his ability and value as a player.
But, it’s not just Simons. The entire rotation and roster has made more sense. While the talent is inarguably worse, the fit and play style are finally right. Chauncey Billups has spent much of the year at odds with his roster, coaching a system that the roster wasn’t really built for.
The offense was stagnant and devolved into isolation often, the ball movement he preached was absent. But now, the ball is popping. There’s motion off-ball that hadn’t been all season. Nurkic is flowing as a high-post and dribble handoff operator, buffering offensive actions and flexing his court vision and screening prowess.
Josh Hart, acquired in the McCollum trade, has been a delight.
The Josh Hart Blazer Experience continues to be awesome pic.twitter.com/sS6B6bM0JB
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) February 18, 2022
He’s averaging 24 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists while shooting 60% from the field. Hart’s been on fire. It’s not sustainable in the slightest, but his play style is, and that’s what’s been most important.
He’s operated more as a ball-handler and with screens, using his ability as a driver to put pressure on the rim (he made strides earlier this season), something the Blazers sorely lack without Lillard.
Hart and Justise Winslow (brought back in the trade with Los Angeles), have brought their playmaking guile and movement to the offense, but also have helped form the shell of Portland’s revamped defense. The Blazers are fifth in defensive efficiency since the trade deadline per Cleaning the Glass; they were 28th prior to it.
The activity has ramped up. Rotations that haven’t been there consistently much of the season are there. Deflections are happening. There’s better communication. Nurkic has more leeway when playing closer to the level, with some margin for error as there are sturdier wings playing backline and at the nail.
Young players down the rotation have popped as well, providing intriguing flashes and showcasing potential future production in coming seasons at Moda Center.
Greg Brown III is one of the more absurd vertical athletes I’ve watched, with a remarkable second-jump. His explosiveness has watermarked this four-game stretch.
Greg Brown III's current offensive package includes a lot of jumping pic.twitter.com/ZcDU3hnsIv
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) February 9, 2022
I am not sure there is anyone in the league who jumps more on a per possession basis than Brown. He’s still very raw on both ends and needs to fill out, but with more developmental minutes and consistency in his jumper… he’s a player.
Trendon Watford’s shown intriguing dynamics as a back-up big, showing off his vision as a short roll playmaker and screener. He’s cutting to supplement when defenses sag off of him. Glimpses have shown through some situational switchability and potential to guard on the perimeter.
Again, the consistency hasn’t been there for Watford or Brown, but the flashes are routine. That’s what the teardown is about, finding flashes, and developing them into the norm.
Portland has opened up some flexibility with the amount of cap space they’ve finagled moving forwards in the off-season. They have a shot at a lottery pick in the upcoming draft (they traded their own 2022 first to Chicago with a lottery protection) and a second if New Orleans’ pick conveys (top-4 protected and protected 15-30).
They’ve opened up options in the directions they can go as a team, but cap space is only as valuable as the players who want to sign in your market. Threading the needle to build the next great Blazers team around Lillard without making the same team-building mistakes of the last regime is much harder than it sounds.
While the shift to the next era hasn’t been perfect, there are bright indicators, and this significant change has been required for multiple seasons. That any glimmers of a hopeful future have shown through are a win considering how they got here. The moves they do and don’t make will be extremely interesting to track in the coming months as they paint a more concrete direction.
