The Arizona Cardinals’ offseason plan has been befuddling, to say the least.
They looked like Super Bowl contenders for a large portion of 2021, but instead of aggressively patching holes in free agency, they sat still and got worse.
Gone are key cogs Chandler Jones, Christian Kirk, Jordan Hicks and Chase Edmonds. And one of the main contracts they did dole out — to running back James Conner — was widely panned by analysts.
I think the Cardinals have three major roster holes as the draft approaches:
No. 1 Edge
No. 2 WR
No. 1 Outside CB— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) April 12, 2022
The saving grace for Arizona is the presence of quarterback Kyler Murray, who has the type of game-changing talent that can keep a team competitive despite personnel deficiencies on a roster.
Earlier this offseason, Murray’s camp approached the Cardinals about a contract extension, interested in a long-term marriage between the two sides.
After a Rookie of the Year and a pair of Pro Bowl selections, it seemed like a no-brainer for Arizona to jump on the chance at extending a 24-year-old star at the game’s most integral position.
Instead, the Cardinals never responded to the contract extension proposal, choosing to focus on free agency and the draft.
Well, it’s going to cost them.
In addition to any potential damage it caused between Murray and the Cardinals’ brass, quarterback contracts have spiked this offseason.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers signed a three-year deal at an average annual value of $50.3 million. Deshaun Watson, who had 22 women accuse him of sexual misconduct, signed a fully guaranteed five-year deal with the Browns worth an average of $46 million per year.
On Wednesday, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr signed a three-year extension with an average annual value of $40.5 million.
Raiders, QB Derek Carr agree to terms on a 3-year, $121.5M contract extension. The deal also includes a no-trade clause. (via @RapSheet + @MikeGarafolo) pic.twitter.com/u54w0Pe5oK
— NFL (@NFL) April 13, 2022
Carr is a solid player who can keep a team competitive, but he’s not seen as someone with elite ability like Murray.
Carr is 31 years old and coming off a season in which he finished No. 7 in the league in yards per attempt and No. 14 in Total QBR. Murray, who won’t turn 25 until August, finished No. 4 in yards per attempt and No. 7 in Total QBR in 2021.
By using those three contracts as a guide, it seems clear that Murray should be able to command at least $45 million per year on an extension.
Before these contracts were signed, the Cardinals could have argued that Murray should come in behind Patrick Mahomes ($45M AAV) and Josh Allen ($43M AAV).
Kyler Murray is worth $45M per year based on these new QB contracts.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) April 13, 2022
Team owner Michael Bidwill has said that the Cardinals want to negotiate Murray’s contract extension in the summer, when the front office no longer has to concentrate on free agency and the draft.
If the deal does get done then, the Cardinals have no one but themselves to blame for a higher price tag, as Murray’s original offer is no longer on the table.
If the Cardinals’ main ambition in all of this was to not extend Murray this offseason, it could turn out even worse. If he goes out and has a top-5 season in 2022, the asking price could easily zoom to $50 million per year.
Or, Murray could always consider a holdout if his request is not met. And who would have the leverage in that scenario? Certainly not a team that would be among the worst in the NFL without Murray.
The Cardinals should have considered it a gift when Murray broached the idea of an extension back in February.
Instead, they will pay for putting off that negotiation.
