With his next hit, Miguel Cabrera will become the 33rd player in history to reach the 3,000-hit milestone and the 17th to do so in the last 30 seasons.
But with only one other player at 2,500 hits and just two others at 2,000 hits, the doors to the 3,000-hit club will remain closed for a long time once Cabrera enters — perhaps longer than any time in the last half-century, since 12 years elapsed between Stan Musial (1958) being joined in 1970 by Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.
So who — if anyone — will be the 34th baseball player to reach 3,000 hits? Here’s a look at 10 candidates, including a couple young stars on whom we’ll hope the very best is still to come, again and again and again.
Robinson Cano, New York Mets (2,629 hits)
With a bit better fortune and much better decision-making, Cano would already be on the doorstep of 3,000 hits. Cano was just 530 hits shy of 3,000 and had five years remaining on his contract when the Mets acquired him following the 2018 season.
Even accounting for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, typical injury-free seasons for Cano — who averaged 180 hits per year for the Seattle Mariners from 2015-17 before missing half the season due to a broken hand injury and a PED suspension in 2018 — in 2019 and 2021 would have had him just over 2,800 hits entering this season, the penultimate year of the deal. But Cano was limited to 107 games due to injuries in 2019 before being suspended the entire 2021 season after again testing positive for PEDs. His Hall of Fame hopes are gone and it’s hard to see him getting 371 more hits.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds (2,033 hits)
The 38-year-old Votto almost surely isn’t getting almost another 1,000 hits, but we’re including him here for the 2% chance this generation’s greatest hitting savant decides to spend six more seasons flicking singles down the third base line, a la Ichiro Suzuki.
Gonna be a while until we see our next member of the 3,000-hit club after Miggy.
-Cano at 2,629, but he’s 39
-Yadi’s not getting there
-Votto’s nearly 1000 away and 38
-Nelly Cruz, Andrus, Cutch, Long not getting there
-Altuve, Freeman both 32, need 1200-1300. Next best options— Ali Thanawalla (@Ali_Thanawalla) April 21, 2022
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros (1,783 hits)
Altuve has already led the league in hits four times and won three batting championships and won’t turn 32 until May 6. But his pace is already slowing a bit: After averaging 198 hits per season from 2012 through 2017, Altuve has averaged 162 hits over the last three 162-game seasons. He’d need to do that through the 2032 season to get to 3,000 hits. And Altuve hitting the injured list this week with a strained hamstring is a reminder the injuries can begin piling up at any time.
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (1,720 hits)
Freeman is 16 months older than Altuve but might be a better bet to get to 3,000 hits. Freeman reached the halfway mark at a younger age than Craig Biggio, Paul Molitor and Dave Winfield, all of whom finished with more than 3,000 hits. He’s averaged 163 hits over the last 10 full seasons, has been remarkably durable (let’s not forget he won the 2020 NL MVP while feeling the effects of a COVID-19 battle) and plays a less demanding position, so projecting another six seasons of standard production — which would leave him just over 300 hits shy of 3,000 at the end of the 2027 season, when he’d be 38 years old — with his new team isn’t outlandish.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (1,444 hits)
Machado’s got all the ingredients for a run at 3,000: Youth, consistency and *knock on wood* a history of good health. If he collects another 56 hits before turning 30 on July 6, he’ll be halfway to 3,000 hits faster than Tony Gwynn, Paul Molitor and Rafael Palmeiro.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (1,427 hits)
Everything we wrote about Machado applies to Trout, except he’s coming off a season in which he played 36 games due to a calf injury and just dodged disaster when he was hit on the hand by a pitch last weekend. Of course, Trout is so absurdly good that even averaging 162 hits a season through the end of his contract in 2030 will have him just shy of 2,900 hits anyway.
If Jose Altuve doesn't get to 3,000 hits, the next likeliest player is probably … Trout or Machado? Who are both below 1,420 right now and would need like 11 more seasons to get there.
Getting 3,000 hits is really hard.
— Chris Towers …Is A Real Boy (@CTowersCBS) September 23, 2021
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (1,374 hits)
Teammate Paul Goldschmidt has 204 more hits but is three years older than the 31-year-old Arenado, who has averaged 164 hits per full season since 2013 and is off to a roaring start (.405 average) this year. Maintaining his average hit pace through the end of his contract in 2027 would still leave him 400-something hits away from 3,000, but he’ll be just 36 when the deal expires. George Brett and Adrian Beltre, third basemen in the 3,000-hit club, each had more than 500 hits after turning 36.
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (1,284 hits)
Like Barry Bonds before him, Harper — who has four 100-walk seasons at age 29 — may be too selective to reach 3,000 hits. He’ll also have to minimize the wear and tear of his reckless style after missing more than 200 games in his first nine full seasons. And yet even just average production through 2031 will have him at more than 2,600 hits upon turning 39 at the end of his contract.
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals (498 hits)
If you thought Harper was a unicorn…Soto, 22, already has TWO 100-walk seasons and is almost a fifth of the way to another one. But who doesn’t want to daydream of Soto playing into his 40s and getting to 3,000 hits anyway a la a Rickey Henderson, who was the all-time walks leader upon reaching 3,000 hits in 2001?
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (101 hits)
Speaking of daydreaming: Averaging 180 hits a season for the duration of his 12-year contract will get Franco to 2,200-plus hits after the 2033 season…at which point he’ll still only be 32 years old. Let’s hope we’re all mounting a Pete Rose watch by the 2040s.
