Fifty-one weeks ago today, we wrote the 1982 Atlanta Braves and 1987 Milwaukee Brewers — co-authors of the best starts in baseball history — had no challengers in sight.
With apologies to the Braves’ world-class in-game sprinter, it turns out the Tampa Bay Rays are The Freeze.
And Tampa Bay could finish surging past the ’82 Braves and ’87 Brewers tonight, when the Rays will look to leave everyone that’s ever begun a Major League Baseball season well in the rearview mirror by extending their season-opening winning streak to a record-breaking 14 games when they visit the Toronto Blue Jays.
No matter how they fare tonight, the Rays — whose season-opening winning streak is the first of longer than nine games since the ’87 Brewers — have already grabbed the attention of futures-minded bettors.
- Tampa Bay’s odds to win the World Series, per DraftKings, have dropped from +1900 on Opening Day (10th-lowest odds on the board) to +1000, seventh-best behind the Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and New York Mets.
- The Rays now have the third-best betting odds to win the AL pennant at +475 (down from +900 on Opening Day), behind only the Astros and Yankees.
- They are the favorite to win the AL East at +140 after beginning the season at +340, behind the Yankees and Blue Jays.
- Only the Braves (-1100) have shorter odds of making the playoffs than Tampa Bay (-550).
The bullishness is understandable given a case could easily be made that the Rays’ 13-0 start is already the best start in baseball history.
Tampa Bay has outscored its opponents — the Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Oakland Athletics and the Boston Red Sox — by a whopping 71 runs (101-30), which is not only the largest run differential ever over the first 13 games but 15 runs more than the previous best, set by the New York Giants during a 12-1 start in 1918.
The 1982 Braves outscored their opposition by 32 runs (66-34) while the 1987 Brewers had a run differential of plus-38 (91-53).
All but two of the Rays’ wins have been by at least four runs and they’ve recorded just three saves. Closer Pete Fairbanks, who posted saves in the two games decided by three runs or fewer, has thrown four innings thus far, which ties him for 369th in the majors.
The 1982 Braves and 1987 Brewers each recorded seven saves in their first 13 games. Ten of Atlanta’s wins were by three runs or fewer while Milwaukee opened its historic surge with 11 wins by three runs or fewer.
As a team, the Rays lead the majors in homers (32), RBIs (99), batting average (.287), on-base percentage (.364) and slugging percentage (.576), which we suppose is the quintuple crown.
No team has led the majors in all three Triple Crown categories since Cleveland did so in the strike-shortened 1995 season, when it made the World Series.
The last three teams to lead the majors in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage — the 2017 Astros, the 2018 Red Sox and 2019 Astros — all reached the World Series, with only the ’19 Astros falling short of the title.
For good measure, Tampa Bay also leads the majors in ERA (2.23) and ranks second in WHIP (0.94).
Some caution is to be understood when it comes to projecting how the Rays might fare in October. The sprint of the postseason is often cruel to those who have thrived in the marathon that is the regular season, so even approaching or matching baseball’s winningest regular season teams — neither the 116-win Chicago Cubs in 1906 nor the 116-win Seattle Mariners in 2001 won the World Series — assures Tampa Bay nothing in the fall.
While they can’t be penalized for who they have played, the Rays have yet to oppose anyone expected to compete for a playoff spot. The Tigers, Nationals and Athletics, all of whom are candidates to lose at least 100 games, are a combined 10-19 in their non-Tampa games, while the Red Sox remain in their ever-mystifying cycle of mediocrity.
History also suggests the Rays will battle a cold stretch that approaches or matches the length of their hot streak. The 1982 Braves fell four games out of first place in late August following a 2-19 stretch and trailed the Dodgers by three games with 10 to play before finishing on a 7-3 kick to edge Los Angeles by a game.
The 1987 Brewers were even more extreme. Milwaukee lost 12 straight in May, fell under .500 by the All-Star Break and missed the playoffs after finishing third in the AL East despite having 91 wins, six more than the eventual World Series champion Minnesota Twins.
Of course, the 1982 Braves and 1987 Brewers played in the era in which only division winners advanced to the playoffs. Today’s 12-team playoff field means finishing second or third in a division isn’t a one-way ticket to the golf course — and all but ensures the Rays will get an opportunity to bookend their scorching start with a championship finish.
