I’ve got good news and bad news.
The good? I’ve done three betting prediction articles about the Suns this season and Phoenix is undefeated in that span.
The bad? After a 3-0 start on picks, I’ve gone 1-2 and then, gulp, 0-3, dropping to below .500 on the predictions.
So it’s time to secure a crucial Game 6 win over the Nuggets by writing another one of these bad boys, while switching up the format so we can cash in as well.
I’m going the underdog route tonight, choosing a Same Game Parlay from DraftKings that has longshot odds to hit. Are parlays technically a smart way to wager? No! But I’m throwing caution to the wind after losing on all three straight bets last time, anyway.
The Same Game Parlay pick for Game 6 of Suns-Nuggets:
Phoenix Suns -1.5; Devin Booker 30+ points; Devin Booker 5+ assists; Devin Booker 5+ rebounds (+300 at DraftKings)
The Suns are 2-point favorites, so this alternate spread gives us a little boost just in case the game comes down to the wire and Phoenix wins by a bucket. The absence of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton hurts, but honestly, this outcome was always going to come down to the play of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.
If they play well, the Suns can still win, and I’m taking Phoenix at home. Plus, Jamal Murray and some other players on the Nuggets are dealing with a flu bug that could affect their availability.
Now, let’s dig into the Booker stats. One of the most important things to me is minutes played. Booker has played between 40 and 45 minutes per game in the series, and I’d expect him to be on the higher side in this matchup.
It’s do-or-die for the Suns, and we don’t have to worry about him sitting late in a blowout loss because there would be no reason to preserve Booker in that scenario. If he plays 43-plus minutes, it feels like the assists will definitely be there, as he’s averaged 7.8 per game against Denver and even more than that when Paul has been sidelined.
I also feel comfortable with the points. Ayton is not around to gobble up some of the shots, and with such a weak supporting cast, Booker and Durant are going to force the action on offense, with the ball in one of their hands much of the time. Booker is averaging 34.6 points per game in this series and has failed to reach 30 in only two of the five so far. I’m comfortable with 30 as I think Booker will get there.
The big question, alongside the spread, is if Booker can get to five rebounds. He has averaged 5.4 per game in this series and has hit five or more in all but one game, finishing with four in Game 1. The duo of Jock Landale and Bismack Biyombo may actually be superior to Landale/Ayton when it comes to rebounding, but the Suns may also choose to go small in this game at times. Booker will be on the court a bunch, and the pace will be fast enough that he should get to five boards.
So, yes, a lot of things need to go our way for this to hit, and a couple of the categories could be borderline. But if the Suns are to force a Game 7, it will be on the shoulders of their two best players.
Devin Booker will be ready, and I am riding with him.
Prediction: Devin Booker to register 30+ points, 5+ reboounds and 5+ assists, Suns cover -1.5 points
