Ranking the Top Contenders for NBA Rookie of the Year

The 2021-22 NBA season has been special and enjoyable for a myriad of reasons, but the exceptional 2021 draft class has been chief among them for me! 

It’s difficult to find a group of rookies in recent memory that have come in and had such an immediate impact. As the season is winding down, it’s as good a time as any to take stock and get a feel for how the Rookie of the Year race is piecing together with roughly a month left before the playoffs.

A few quick notes; There’s still time for these placements to change. These guys have been doing incredible things all year and one of them going on a 12-game stretch that changes our perspective is entirely possible! 

Where I place someone doesn’t mean I don’t value their potential, as this is strictly about what’s happening this season. Without further adieu, let’s dive in!

1. Evan Mobley

While I can certainly understand having a different player in first, I pretty comfortably would have Mobley atop the rankings. He’s played at a borderline All-Star level for much of the year and will most likely make my All-Defense team. The impact on both sides has been unreal.

Fantastic defensive possession from Evan Mobley pic.twitter.com/rwT0dE1WyJ

— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) October 23, 2021

What he’s brought in ground coverage has unlocked the ability for the Cavs to play extremely funky line-ups that have viable functionality. He’s excelled as a rim protector since day one, as opposition shoots 12.4% worse at the rim than expected when he roams the paint, according to Second Spectrum tracking.

That functional funk? Yeah, it carries over on offense. Cleveland utilizes a variety of sets that involve high-lows, big-to-big passing, and post-hub actions to hit cutters. Mobley’s 2.6 assists per game undersells how vital his ability to move the ball is for the Cavs to loosen the offense. 

Mobley has certainly benefited playing alongside Darius Garland, but he’s done more as a self-creator than he’s gotten credit for! Only 65% of his shots are assisted, per Cleaning the Glass. He’s run some pick and roll offense (more please), ran the break for the Cavs, and continues to flex his ability as a face-up scorer and facilitator.

2. Scottie Barnes

Barnes is just a joyous entity whether he’s on the court or waving at the camera before the All-Star game. He has certified himself a Hall of Fame All-Vibes member!

His game has absolutely blown me away. From day one, Barnes has tested the waters, something I love about his style of play and his tenacity.

Watching Scottie's intermediate game growth this season has been so fun pic.twitter.com/MCnud3P1Fh

— Mark Schindler (@MSchindlerNBA) November 28, 2021

At Florida State, Barnes wasn’t really a scorer outside of drives, putbacks, and transition. And just like that at Summer League, he starts facing up, hitting fadeaways, and attacking with more vigor and efficacy off the bounce.

You can’t really nail Scottie down into a role, he’s just been Scottie, making himself a flexible, moldable, extremely willing outlet scorer in Toronto’s offense. Everything is quick with him, either attacking gaps without hesitation or knifing into the middle of the floor to receive a pass, kick it to an open man, and relocate. He just flows.

He’s spent games running the point, he’s played games operating as a drop defender. I don’t have any idea what to think of Scottie Barnes moving forward, because he’s already obliterated what I envisioned for him when I scouted him.

His defense has picked up lately, as he’s again tested the waters, figuring out what he can and can’t get away with with respect to aggression as a defender. He’s had quality games defensively lately, but his inconsistency on that end brings him down from the top spot just slightly for me.

3. Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham’s craft and pacing are just nutty. What he’s able to do breaking down defenders and a set defense in the halfcourt routinely leaves me astounded.

His season has been about continual rapid development. After a pretty rough start shooting from three, 27.4% from deep through the end of November (worth noting he missed pre-season and camp due to injury), he found his NBA range, shooting well above league average from deep on a high volume of self-created attempts in December.

Cade's halfcourt pacing is just phenomenal pic.twitter.com/uBIxRKQCM5

— Mark Schindler (@MSchindlerNBA) March 7, 2022

In January, he started improving his craft in the paint. In February and March, excelling as a shot-creator in the mid-range.

Continual expansion of his game has also led to the improvement of the Pistons as they’ve benefitted from his improved play. They’re 5-6 since the All-Star break, nothing to scoff at considering their play earlier in the year. He’s played above average defense for much of the year, making solid off-ball rotations, ironing out coverages with his communication, and showing chops as a switch defender.

Nothing from this season has made me think he shouldn’t have been the number one pick. The creation ability, feel, and his budding scoring ability are what made him a deserving first overall pick.

However, when it comes to an award solely based on this season, his overall middling efficiency does matter, sitting at 49.7% true-shooting on the season, nearly 7% below league average. His surrounding offensive talent has done him no wonders, but he’s excelled in spite of that. I don’t want to be incredibly unfair, but when you’re splitting hairs amongst an elite class, it makes a difference.

Yet, he’s been torrid in his 10 games since the All-Star Break, averaging 22.3 points on 52.2% true-shooting. If he can continue at this pace or an even better one to close out the season, I wouldn’t rule out him rising up the rookie ladder.

Honorable Mentions

Franz Wagner: Wagner has excelled on the ball for the Magic, operating as a ball-handler and creator in a way that I didn’t expect coming out of Michigan. The Magic have initiated less of the offense through him of late, something I hope changes, but he’s been fantastic playing off the second side of actions as well and working in the flow. His defense is a plus already. His shooting has room to improve. We need to talk more about Franz Wagner and Orlando’s youth movement!

Herb Jones: Jones should make an All-Defense team this year. His impact has been significant for the Pelicans as they’ve risen from the ashes after a 3-16 start. He’s flexed on-ball ability, showcased intriguing interior passing, and is more capable as a driver than he was even in college last year. Not bad for a second round pick!