Ranking the Rest of the Top Prospects for the Spurs at the Back End of the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery

San Antonio Spurs fans are only a couple of hours away from tuning into the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery to watch Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum unseal 14 oversized envelopes to declare the pecking order for the June 23rd NBA Draft. And while the Silver and Black only have a 4.5% chance of walking away with the first overall pick, the organization still has a shot to land a promising prospect even if they end up selecting ninth.

We analyzed Shaedon Sharpe, Johnny Davis, and Bennedict Mathurin, then Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown, and Tari Eason over the first two weeks. And now it’s time to break down the best of the rest who could be available for Pop and the front office when they are on the clock in the mid-to-late lottery. These gifted youngsters might not have much in common, but they each play a position of need for a franchise in need of frontcourt assistance.

3. Jalen Duren | Memphis | Freshman | Center | 6’ 11” | 250 lbs

Jalen Duren was the seventh-best high school recruit in the country and a probable top ten pick, and he held his draft stock despite a less than ideal context at Memphis. The 18-year-old reclassified to play NCAA basketball under head coach Penny Hardaway, and his professional-ready frame and explosive athleticism jumped off the screen as a freshman.

The six-eleven center elevates above the rim and runs the floor incredibly well for his size, and he should instantly flourish as a roll man, rim-runner, and lob target. He also flashed intriguing short-roll passing, leveraging his gravity going downhill to attract help defenders before finding teammates for open shots. His high-low playmaking was equally fascinating.

Joined SportsCenter LA last night to talk about some of the top NBA prospects set to take the floor in the NCAA Tournament. Which potential top-5 pick deserves more buzz with his play as of late? Memphis big man Jalen Duren. Video breakdown on the draft’s best finisher. pic.twitter.com/8THdfNJKDL

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) March 16, 2022

Although Duren is an imposing physical force, he doesn’t offer much as an isolation scorer. He lacks post moves and touch around the basket, makes questionable decisions when doubled, settles for contested jumpers, and struggles shooting. Perhaps that will change as he matures, but he is best suited to use his god-given tools as a play finisher and glass cleaner.

Defensive potential is what makes Duren a mouthwatering prospect at the next level. His combination of length, fluidity, mobility, and timing give him the makings of an elite rim protector, and his motor keeps him engaged at all times. While teams shouldn’t expect him to defend guards one-on-one, he possesses the footspeed to hold his own on the perimeter.

The towering teenager could become one of the best drop coverage bigs in the league, but he still has kinks to work out of his game elsewhere. He relies more on his athletic prowess than sound positioning, picks up fouls for being too handsy or leaving his feet on fakes, and is a bit overeager to help far away from the hoop, often leaving him in no man’s land.

2. AJ Griffin | Duke | Freshman | Forward | 6’ 6” | 222 lbs

AJ Griffin was a part of another highly-touted freshman recruiting class at Duke, headlined by Paolo Banchero and Trevor Keels. Although he started the year at the end of the rotation for head coach Mike Krzyzewski, Griffin cemented himself as an everyday starter and potential lottery pick after a breakout performance against Ohio State in mid-December.

Griffin became the fifth high-major freshman in NCAA history to hit better than 44% of his threes on at least four attempts per game. Fantastic shot prep, relocation ability, and efficiency above the break and in the corners make this his most translatable skill. He also displayed a knack for cutting to the basket, ranking in the 99th percentile on admittedly low volume.

Standstill sharpshooting is undeniably useful, though what set him apart were unique flashes of self-creation. Griffin ranked in the 95th percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers, scoring as a pick-and-roll ball handler and out of isolations using a variety of hesitations, crossovers, in-and-outs, step-backs, and misdirections to create space while flowing into his shots.

Have had this AJ Griffin bucket replaying over and over in my head since it happened last night pic.twitter.com/iLjbTDd065

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) March 25, 2022

The 18-year-old forward was an outstanding athlete before several lower extremity injuries sapped him of his burst and lift. But he developed into a crafty below-the-rim finisher in college, employing his wide frame to bully his way into deliberate drives to the hole. However, generating separation and creating advantages for himself and others was challenging.

On the other end, things were pretty bleak for Griffin. Heavy feet left him liable to getting blown by on the perimeter, and ball-watching was such a routine issue that the coaching staff asked him to face guard to lower the chances of him being beat backdoor. Griffin showed optimistic signs as a team defender, but he needs a franchise with stability and accountability.

1. Keegan Murray | Iowa | Sophomore | Forward | 6’ 8” | 225 lbs

Keegan Murray blossomed into a superstar for an Iowa team in desperate need of a scoring punch following the departures of Luka Garza and Joe Wieskamp. The 21-year-old combo forward averaged 23.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game while posting the most prolific and efficient transition numbers in the NCAA and earning top-five pick consideration.

The six-eight sophomore shot an unbelievable 63.5% on post-ups, which ranked in the 99th percentile. Murray also shot 73.1% inside the restricted area, getting to the rim on physical straight-line drives and often spinning to create space to finish with either hand. He embraced contact, tossed in a ton of and-ones, and got to the line 9.7 times per 100 possessions.

Murray was a dependable catch-and-shoot marksman who drained 41.1% of his non-corner threes. And that could bode well for his future as a pick-and-pop threat. Although that long-distance prowess should allow him to attack closeouts, his subpar first step keeps defenders in the play. Factor in an elementary handle, and his point production feels less translatable.

Checking in on potential top-five 2022 NBA Draft selection, Keegan Murray.

Got in a ton of shooting reps today throughout his pre-draft workout session.

Shot nearly 40% from deep this season.

Jumper is looking smooth + confident ahead of next week’s NBA Draft Combine. pic.twitter.com/lW4LSbSD1o

— Jon Chepkevich (@JonChep) May 11, 2022

Regardless, his two-way upside is too tangible to pass on inside the early parts of the lottery. Murray is a robust event creator, recording 3.2 steals and blocks while committing just 1.9 fouls per game. His six-eleven wingspan caused chaos in the passing lanes, and that length, along with a solid practice of verticality, helped him block shots when challenged at the rim.

The Cedar Rapids native was far from flawless as a defender. Murray is a bit of a tweener positionally, and he might not have as much switchability on the perimeter as you would hope. He had a tendency to stand upright, got caught ball-watching, and made some odd gambles that showed poor situational awareness. But his level of engagement was encouraging.