The Los Angeles Chargers seem set to keep Brandon Staley in 2023, so the number of coaching openings for this cycle should stick at five.
Interviews are ongoing and it may not be long before teams start tabbing someone to re-energize their club.
Which is the most desirable destination? Which is the least?
Here are my rankings, based on both short-term and long-term outlooks:
5. Houston Texans
Betting favorites to become head coach: Jonathan Gannon +200; Shane Steichen +350; DeMeco Ryans +650; Sean Payton +800; Josh McCown +1200.
The Texans have been a wasteland for the past few years and while they’ve been smart to rebuild slowly, there still aren’t a bunch of talented young pieces on the roster.
Quarterback remains a huge hole, and while Houston has the No. 2 overall pick, I’d feel a lot better if it lost the finale to the Colts and finished with No. 1. Now the Texans will either need to trade up for the pick, giving away draft capital, or possibly settle for the second-best quarterback in the class.
If Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Will Levis goes to Houston and becomes a star, the outlook will change considerably, but it’s not a guarantee. Furthermore, the Nick Easterby fiasco and general missteps from the ownership and front office makes this a less-than-desirable situation for a head coach.
4. Denver Broncos
Betting favorites to become head coach: Dan Quinn +150; Sean Payton +225; David Shaw +1000; Jim Caldwell +1400; Ejiro Evero +1500; DeMeco Ryans +1500.
The Broncos have an ownership group ready and willing to spend and a football team that has historically been successful. Heading into the 2022 season, they had the look of Super Bowl contenders, but the campaign went off the rails quickly as Russell Wilson looked nothing like the player he was in Seattle.
If Wilson rebounds, this is actually a really good job. The defense is above average and a bounceback by the offense could have the Broncos competing for the playoffs as soon as next season.
But if Wilson is cooked? Oh, boy. The contract is immovable for the foreseeable future and the Broncos gave up critical draft assets and players to acquire him, thus thinning out the roster. Denver has to do battle with divisional foes Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for years to come, so the degree of difficulty is high.
The coach who takes this job is betting on a return to form by Wilson, but it’s a major gamble.
3. Carolina Panthers
Betting favorites to become head coach: Shane Steichen +260; Steve Wilks +350; Sean Payton +400; Mike Kafka +600; Frank Reich +900.
The Panthers have some good pieces on defense and really got the running game going under interim coach Steve Wilks in the second half of the season. The big question is quarterback, as Carolina still does not have a clear answer there despite cycling through myriad options the past few years.
The Panthers draft No. 9 in April, and maybe they make a move for Levis or Stroud, but it’s a risk and would cost draft capital.
Carolina is in a very easy division, as the Buccaneers, Saints and Falcons could all be bad in 2023. But are the Panthers much better? Division titles are fine, but the real goal is a Super Bowl push.
I believe owner David Tepper wants to win and will spend money, but the lack of a cogent plan at quarterback still has me uneasy.
2. Arizona Cardinals
Betting favorites to become head coach: Sean Payton +350; Brian Flores +350; Vance Joseph +450; Shane Bowen +500; DeMeco Ryans +700; Frank Reich +1000.
The Cardinals have one more season with quarterback Kyler Murray on a below market contract, but it feels like they are going to spend 2023 hitting the reset button.
The short-term outlook is not good, as Murray will miss some time next season as he recuperates from a torn ACL, while the roster needs a complete overhaul because of all its holes. However, the No. 3 overall pick is a great place to start, as the Cardinals will get Will Anderson, Jalen Carter or more picks via a trade down.
There are Patriot Way vibes emanating from new GM Monti Ossenfort, and maybe that’s the way to get back to competitiveness. It worked in New England for a long time, although that coincided with Tom Brady’s brilliance, and it has not been nearly as effective in other places.
The main reason why this vacancy is ranked high is Murray. He was ineffective for much of 2022 and then got hurt, so it remains to be seen what he looks like moving forward. But there were sustained stretches of greatness previously, and the quarterback situation in Arizona is unquestionably better than any other opening.
1. Indianapolis Colts
Betting favorites to become head coach: Eric Bieniemy +300; Leslie Frazier +450; DeMeco Ryans +600; Dan Quinn +600; Raheem Morris +800; Jeff Saturday +1000.
The Colts were the preseason favorites to win the AFC South but fell on their face. However, they dropped so precipitously that it actually might work out really well.
Indy has the No. 4 overall pick in the draft, which is close enough to the top that it can be aggressive and make a move for a quarterback. If the Colts find a gem in the draft, their fortunes will turn around quickly.
There are still good pieces on this Colts team and the cap is in good shape. And while the Jaguars are clearly ascending, the division is among the weakest in the NFL.
With a good offseason, Indy can be back in the race for the AFC South crown next year, and finding a talented rookie quarterback would put them on an exciting trajectory over the next few seasons.
