The All-Star Break has come and gone with a quickness, which leaves us with roughly 20 games for a few more desperate road trips, home stands to bolster home-court advantage, and the pursuit of the 10-seed in the West (Who ACTUALLY wants it? Please, someone secure it!)
The Phoenix Suns sit atop the league, 6.5 games ahead of the second-best Warriors, a boon of a cushion given Chris Paul’s injury. The top of the West is fairly firm; 15 games separate the one seed and the sixth seed.
The Eastern Conference is an absolute free for all (4.5 games separate the one seed and sixth seed) with even more uncertainty post-trade deadline.
Who do you believe will be the No. 1 seed in the @NBA Eastern Conference?@Ben_Wilson_1 | @jeffparles | @KelleyBydlon take a look at those odds on #PrimeTimeAction #WatchNow ⏬ pic.twitter.com/p8k570OvVN
— VSiN (@VSiNLive) February 23, 2022
Where do the contenders stand before the stretch run?
Note: These are all teams that I think have a semblance of a shot at making the Conference Finals, my definition of a contender. If you can get there, you’re just four games away from the Finals. Boom, contender.
Tier One
Miami Heat
NBA title odds: +1000
While I’m not sure I’d pick them to come out of the East at the moment, the Heat are the team I feel most comfortable with heading out of the break.
Erik Spoelstra and the Miami staff have really gotten the most out of this roster, putting the ball in the hands of PJ Tucker more than we’ve ever seen in the NBA, and it works! Max Strus and Gabe Vincent have burst onto the scene as positive rotation players contributing in their own ways, Strus through magnificent movement shooting and Vincent as a pick and roll playmaker and pull-up shooter. I can’t say enough positive things about those two, as they, along with Caleb Martin, have strengthened and synergized this team to the fullest around their stars.
Tyler Herro has taken another leap. His live-dribble playmaking has hit new heights and he’s testing the waters with eye manipulation. Kyle Lowry has brought a great dynamic as an organizer of the offense and fits like a glove in every way defensively.
Bam Adebayo continues to be aggressive in the offense and I want even more of it from him.
Don’t even get me started on the defense; Miami’s starting unit is the second-best defensive line-up in the NBA that’s played at least 300 possessions together, allowing a paltry 91.9 points per 100 possessions. They’re suffocating at their best, and stifling at their worst.
That’s without even mentioning that Victor Oladipo, currently rehabbing with Miami’s G-League team, who could add another layer to this team’s dynamic.
My biggest question remains in the halfcourt offensively, as they’re 15th in halfcourt efficiency in 2022 per Cleaning the Glass. Jimmy Butler has had some notable struggles in the clutch late in games this season.
Jimmy Butler's clutch stats over the past 3 years have been so up and down that it's tough to predict
20: 17/61, 3/20 3pt, 39/53 ft, 18ast
21: 16/46, 1/8, 30/35, 12
22: 13/44, 1/11, 14/16, 10But in the 20 playoffs, he flipped the switch
12/21, 2/6, 22/24
— John Jablonka (@JohnJablonka_) February 18, 2022
However, Butler’s always been a gamer when it matters most and if his most recent game against Charlotte is a signifier, some of the late-game worries can be shed.
They are one of the best-spaced teams in the league and make the most out of quick-hitter actions in early offense.
Miami is 18-8 since Christmas and on pace for their first 50-win season since 2013-14 in which they made the Finals. Is another chance at the championship in this Heat team’s future? I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t bet against it either.
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA title odds: +600
I started the year feeling as though I had Milwaukee all figured out and that has only slipped away each month.
They’re just 18th in defense in 2022, and head-scratchingly so. They routinely send two to the ball as an automatic on defense, and teams with proactive passers have been picking them apart. Anfernee Simons torched them prior to the All-Star Break, showing the blueprint to give the Bucks trouble with high level pick and roll play.
Brook Lopez’s absence has been a significant part of those defensive struggles. Giannis Antetokounmpo has played more at the five and while he’s still been among the elite defenders in the NBA, he’s not getting to strut his skills more naturally as a roamer.
Of course, I had defensive questions about Milwaukee all through last year, and they won a title, so maybe I’m overreacting, but with Lopez’s return time still uncertain, and what he’ll look like returning from back surgery even more uncertain, yeah, I’m a bit concerned.
The Bucks defensive rating on their 3-1 West Coast road trip was 115.8 but covered up by some scintillating offense. They just gave up 71 points in the first half to Portland at home.
In potentially related news. Bucks GM Jon Horst said Brook Lopez is expected back this season.
— Kane Pitman (@KanePitman) February 15, 2022
What is the actual playoff rotation? Outside of the top six, it’s a bit suspect with respect to a deep playoff run. Can Serge Ibaka provide some relief and another look at the five? Can an aged George Hill and Wesley Matthews along with a green Jordan Nwora provide enough depth in the right situations?
That being said, the top three on this team are remarkable and they make the biggest difference. Jrue Holiday is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. Khris Middleton has been fantastic (20/6/5.5 on 59% true-shooting in 2022) after early struggles. Giannis somehow keeps getting better and that’s a terrifying proposition for the league.
He’s shooting 41.2% on pull-up twos, a career high. Not earth-shattering, but the efficacy is there, he keeps getting more comfortable in-between and that is a massive part of his continued growth as a player.
The Bucks are a very good team that has been dealt a tough card with injuries throughout the year. When the big three play together, they dominate, outscoring opposition by nearly 14 points per 100 possessions (98th percentile among line-ups per Cleaning the Glass). I have gripes with their play, but they aren’t glaring holes, and they had many of the same issues last year and won the NBA Finals.
Philadelphia 76ers
NBA title odds: +700
Joel Embiid has been about the best player in the league since Christmas, just thrashing defenses in every which way while also playing the best defense he has since his rookie season. That alone is enough reason to have the Sixers sniffing the first tier.
The concerns over Harden and Embiid’s fit have been drastically overblown; Having two top 15-20 players is surprisingly much better than one!
Harden has been a tough player to gauge for me all season. The defense has been abysmal, his burst has been inconsistent, and he just hasn’t felt like James Harden much of the year. That’s what’s so absurd. In spite of a very clear subpar year for Harden, he’s averaging 22.5 points and 10 assists on above league average true-shooting. He’s simply the best player that Joel Embiid has played with.
Losing Seth Curry and Andre Drummond hurts, but Harden adds a player who helps push the chips all-in on Embiid’s MVP-caliber season.
Tobias Harris should be scaled down into a more suitable offensive role. I’m extremely interested to see how Tyrese Maxey and Harden fit together, as Maxey has excelled as a lead guard.
It’s fair to poke around at the depth behind Embiid as well as back-up ball-handling, but there’s enough here around two of the very best players in the league to have confidence in the Sixers as a legitimate title threat.
