Orlando’s Stingy Defense, Keldon Johnson’s 3-Point Launching and Other Post-All-Star Break Trends

As the NBA season reaches the remaining three weeks of the regular season, some wild stuff is going on. This happens every season after the All-Star Break, but this year has had a great deal of funk in it.

My two favorite segments of the season are the last month and the first month, indulging in the newness of each team, shifting identities of players, and the exponential glacial shift. In the last month though, man it’s so fun to try and sift through what on earth is happening. 

Trends are popping up that can make sense, but like, what are you supposed to take from it? To what extent does it matter? Take for instance the Portland Trail Blazers, as Brandon Williams and Trendon Watford have played well and flashed upside for a blatantly tanking team. That’s the issue though, what do you take from a team that’s getting absolutely mollywhopped to the tune of a -23.2 point differential after the Break?

However, I’m more bullish on what we can and can’t take away. It’s important to acknowledge that the numbers could be juiced for one reason or another, but a trend is still a trend. The seeds for the future are being sowed in the waning moments of this year. 

Without further adieu, a few trends that have stuck out to me on both team and individual levels as the season hits its eleventh hour.

Orlando’s Foundation

The Orlando Magic, yes, the second worst team by record in the NBA, are first in defensive efficiency (109.5 pp/100 possessions allowed) since the All-Star Break, along with a 7-7 record in that time frame. 

They’ve beaten up on some bad teams. They’ve been beaten up on by some good teams and seemingly have had a 50-ball dropped on them every other game. But, they’ve also beaten some solid competition (Toronto, Minnesota, New Orleans) and played tight against contenders (Golden State, Phoenix, Philadelphia). Yes, not every team has been fully healthy and it’s late in the season. Not everyone is getting up to play the Magic. 

However, the Magic are getting up to play YOU. If you haven’t kept up with the team much all year, I think you’d be surprised in watching them. There’s real intrigue throughout the roster and a defensive infrastructure is there and flexing. Wendell Carter Jr. has been a central figure in bolstering that defense, putting together some remarkable stretches as a mobile big with coverage versatility and legit rim protection chops despite tweener size.

Biggest differential between expected and actual FG% within 6 feet of the rim (5 or more FGA defended per game)
Jarrett Allen -14.7%
Jaren Jackson Jr -14.5%
Rudy Gobert -12.2%
Wendell Carter Jr -11.4%
Isaiah Hartenstein -11.3%
Evan Mobley -11%
Isaiah Stewart -10.8%
Giannis -10.8%

— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) March 23, 2022

Cole Anthony is small in stature, but competes defensively. When healthy, Jalen Suggs has been very solid as a rookie defender, especially off the ball, with room for improvement at the point of attack and navigating screens. Franz Wagner and Chuma Okeke bring meaningful versatility and tools on the wing. Mo Bamba has had an up and down season, but he’s been better of late and his weak side rim protection continues to be a strength.

Per Cleaning the Glass, Orlando’s starting lineup (Anthony/Suggs/Wagner/Carter/Bamba) has the fourth stingiest defense amongst units that have played 500 possessions or more together this season. 

Jamahl Mosley has really impressed me in how he gets his young players looks in the flow. Young players have taken meaningful strides and the way rookie Franz Wagner has immediately impacted and shifted his upward trajectory is a boon to this roster. They’re doing things that make me very excited for the coming year. Keep the Magic on your radar.

Keldon Johnson Launching

Up through December 7th, the first 23 games of the San Antonio Spurs’ season, Keldon Johnson was taking 2.8 threes per game, roughly the same attempt rate as last year, his second in the NBA. I wrote that day about “frustration of wanting more from him,” largely due to holding himself back as a shooter. Since then, Johnson hasn’t disappointed.

The rest of December, he took 4.8 attempts from deep, shooting an absurd 52.1%.

In January he ratcheted up yet another level, taking 6.1 per game hitting 41.2%, and then 6.6 attempts per game in February at 37.9%.

In March he’s somehow upped the volume yet again, taking 7.8 attempts per game and hitting 35.9% of them. 

It’s not just about the volume, but rather the consistency. Constant willingness to take an open shot is essential to making a defense care if you are open. The starkness in the change from Keldon’s hesitancy early in the season to launching with conviction in March is astounding. This kind of volume increase just doesn’t happen very regularly and I welcome it.

Johnson is an extremely impactful driver, arguably his most useful offensive skill. Firing away from deep and making the defense care about his shooting makes it more realistic for him to draw closeouts at the highest levels of play, opening up more lanes to the rim. He’s still not a plus passer, but he’s making small strides as a live-dribble playmaker and that’s directly tied with how the court is warped by uncorking his shot.

Next step, operating more pick and rolls, whether they be initial actions or secondary, and testing the waters as a pull-up shooter. A pretty negligible amount of his attempts are supplemented by his handle. I don’t intend to be greedy! The development this year has been huge, but as San Antonio continues to search for more creation, I’m intrigued to see how & if Keldon’s game can continue to grow to accommodate for creation outside of play finishing.

Trey Murphy III Finding His Footing

The New Orleans Pelicans have simply been a joy to watch this season. Their record belittles what they’ve endured this season and the level they’ve reached as a team in spite of a really difficult start to the year. 

They’re still performing really well defensively even with CJ McCollum, seventh in defensive efficiency since the All-Star Break and first in turnovers forced per Cleaning the Glass. The offense has dipped to average, and understandably given Brandon Ingram’s injury, but the Pelicans just keep playing solid basketball. Shoutout Willie Green.

Trey Murphy III, the 17th overall pick by the Pels, was phenomenal at Summer League and appeared ripe for early production in New Orleans. That didn’t really work out. He played double-digit minutes for the first month of the season as NOLA crawled out to a 1-12 start. He struggled to score inside the arc, struggled with the physicality of the league, and very much looked the part of a rookie who needed G-League time rather than an early contributor.

Fast forward to March; after dealing with a stint in health and safety protocols, ramping back up, and DNP’s, Murphy has found some footing. Across his last seven games Murphy has played 21.1 minutes per game and looks the part much more than he did earlier this season. His numbers are a bit juiced by a 32-point performance in a blowout loss, but his efficiency is up, his decision-making, while still dicey, has been more palatable. He’s been better attacking off the bounce and around the rim in general. 

He can overhelp, but his defensive aggression and some of his rotations have turned my head a bit. He has really intriguing screen navigation tools for someone of his size. Improving his strength and ability to play through contact will be huge for his development on either end, but particularly as a defender.

The shooting is absurd. His release is so quick and he’s shown some movement shooting chops. Finding more feel for his place in an offense and how to be an outlet as an off-ball mover will be something to look for as the season winds down.

Kevin Durant’s Passing

Kevin Durant is averaging 31.2 points/7 rebounds/7.4 assists on 65.7% true-shooting since returning to the court in early March (10 games). The man is on an absolute tear and is just in one of those ratcheted up stages where a defense could try to stop him with a tank and he’d still score. It’s absurd.

The scoring has been prolific, but this is also one of the more memorable passing stretches of his career. Not just due to the assist averages, which are up, but he’s seeing the floor like Neo seeing the Matrix at the moment.

Kevin Durant's passing since returning from injury early in March has been really fun to watch

Always has the skill, but it's felt more prescient and highlighted lately as a lot of teams have thrown two to the ball against Brooklyn pic.twitter.com/b1hHEXPRxm

— Mark Schindler (@MSchindlerNBA) March 24, 2022

If he draws a double (he has often in this stretch), the pocket pass or an overhead pass to the roller is fairly quick and timely. It’s so hard to even contest his passes due to his release point. He’s mixing in skip passes and post-ups to draw two and kick defenses into rotation. Durant always has this in his bag, but it’s felt more on display and highlighted this past month and it’s been a joy to watch.

The ball placement isn’t always perfect and he’s not as adept as his numbers might imply, but that’s nitpicking. He’s been picking apart coverages at a high degree.

Every day is another one to be thankful that you don’t have to guard Kevin Durant or find a way to guard him. I sometimes forget how good the great players are. I know the stats, I know the impact, but every now and again, I have to pause and rewind and watch and go “Oh, yeah, this guy is IT,” and reinforce just how dominant great play can be.

Bones Hyland

We’ve talked heavily about rookies in this space, and while Denver Nuggets guard Nah’Shon ‘Bones’ Hyland won’t end up in the ROTY race, he’s making a real case to make an All-Rookie team.

Hyland has played a part of Denver’s guard rotation all year, but he’s really found his footing after the All-Star Break and even earlier into February. He’s been on a heater after the break (14 games), averaging 12.1 points in 19.5 minutes on 66.7% true-shooting, and canning 47.1% of his threes. He’s shooting 53.1% on pull-up 3’s (2.3 per game) after the break according to Second Spectrum Tracking.

His two-man game with DeMarcus Cousins has rejuvenated a bench that was wayward for much of the season, turning it into a strength of Denver’s. His playmaking and game off the bounce intertwined with Cousins’ connective screening and playmaking stir the drink for that unit.

I’m interested to see how his minutes change, if at all, when/if Jamal Murray returns this year. Regardless, it’s been great to see his impact for Denver, providing a legitimate need and earning his place after a rocky early stretch. He has just about the best name in basketball, maybe ever (?), and incredible vibes: He hopped on a postgame podcast like 30 minutes after an overtime win against the Pelicans!?! Such a fun player to watch and keep tabs on.

SGA & Poku

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot is back!!!

One of the larger bumps in SGA’s play during his wonderful, albeit short season in 2020-21 was his prolific shooting. He nailed 41.8% of his threes, with many off the bounce and he just felt relatively unstoppable when he snatched back into a pull-up or lurched into an elbow jumper off a ball-screen.

He fell back down to earth earlier this year, shooting just 27.8% from deep on a diet almost strictly made of self-created attempts. I didn’t question whether or not he was a shooter, there was enough of a track record to know that wasn’t the case, but falling off to that level as a pull-up shooter was a bit of a red flag.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander post-ASB (13 games)

30.4 ppg on 63.4% TS
5.8 rpg
7.3 apg

8.3 FTA per
39.3% from deep on 4.3 attempts per

— Mark Schindler (@MSchindlerNBA) March 24, 2022

Being back to hitting 37.2% of his pull-ups threes post-ASB and cutting out some of the more inadvertent attempts (He was THROWING stuff at the wall), has been beneficial.

As an OKC subscript; Aleksej Pokusevski is kind of figuring things out! 

He’s only shooting 25% from deep after the break and 26.4% on the year, which needs to come along (I’m bullish it will), but everything else is trending upwards. He’s reined in some of his eraticism as a playmaker and is operating more as a connective forward with most of his creation coming in transition now. He’s been pretty solid playing as the low-man in the Thunder defense, helping at the rim, and stepping up in the paint. 

Again, the shot is essential, but Poku is making real strides and he seems closer to becoming a real rotation player than another G-League stint.