Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: Trevor Lawrence Can Lift the Jacksonville Jaguars to Relevancy

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I CHI I DET I HOU I NYJ I SEA

Today’s Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Season Win Total: 6.5 (Under -130; Over +110)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +450; No -650
Odds to Win Division: +800
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +13000

Let’s take a look at Year 2 of the recent quarterbacks who went No. 1 overall: Kyler Murray got the Cardinals to 8-8 and within a game of the playoffs. Joe Burrow got the Bengals to 10-6 and all the way to the Super Bowl.

Et tu, Trevor Lawrence?

Sure, the road feels steeper for the Jacksonville Jaguars and their talented quarterback following a disastrous rookie campaign, but don’t rule out a leap just yet.

Lawrence undoubtedly learned a lot in his first year, and now that Jacksonville has an actual NFL head coach in place, the returns could come quicker than expected.

The Jaguars have often been the laughingstock of the NFL in recent years, but they could be the ones smiling if some of their major offseason moves pan out.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Division: It’s entirely possible the AFC South doesn’t boast a single above average team in 2022. Football Outsiders thinks that way, as the Jaguars, Colts, Titans and Texans all have a Total DVOA of 19th or below heading into the season. Jacksonville is not generally seen as a team with enough talent to compete with Indy and Tennessee, but without a star quarterback in the division, it should be enough of a crapshoot to give them hope.

Arrivederci, Urban Meyer: The former Ohio State coach was supposed to come in and blend his college coaching chops with some NFL style and turn around the organization. Instead, Meyer’s tenure was an absolute trainwreck from the start, and Jacksonville gave him the heave-ho. It’s definite addition by subtraction this year, as Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson is taking over. Pederson is a good coach and has a strong analytical bent, which should pay dividends quickly for the Jaguars.

Trevor Lawrence: It was a rough rookie season for Lawrence. He finished 28th in the NFL in Total QBR, tossed a league-high 17 interceptions, averaged a meager 6.0 yards per pass attempt and had  a quarterback rating of 71.9. But it was a terrible situation for any signal-caller, let alone one on his maiden NFL voyage, and we have to remember that the scouting community considered Lawrence the slam-dunk No. 1 overall pick in 2021. Lawrence has a lot to prove this season, but the reports from training camp have been positive, and more importantly, he has the requisite ability to take a big leap.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Jaguars

WR Christian Kirk over 825.5 receiving yards (-115): This looks awfully low to me. Kirk had a receiving DVOA of 23.9% from the slot last season, making him one of the best inside guys in the NFL. The Jaguars gave him $18 million per year in free agency, and teams don’t spend that type of money on a guy they don’t plan to use extensively on offense. Jacksonville’s passing game needs to take a step forward this season, but it should, and this receiving total is eminently reachable for Kirk, who is just now entering his prime.

Travis Etienne over 1,025.5 rushing and receiving yards (-130): The first-round pick in 2021 missed his debut season because of a Lisfranc injury. Etienne is back now and expected to have a major role on offense, especially with running back James Robinson recovering from a torn Achilles suffered in December. Etienne has a rushing over/under of 705.5 but I’m not sure about that one. I feel better when the receiving yards are added in because Etienne should have a major role in the passing game, even if Robinson gets back to full health and cuts into his carries.

OLB Travon Walker over 6.25 sacks (-125): The sack numbers in college will not wow you — Walker had 9.5 sacks in 29 games — but he went No. 1 overall in the draft for a reason. Walker has eye-popping athleticism and Jacksonville is going to use him differently than Georgia did. This total is one sack below both Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, so take advantage.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

Doug Pederson to win Coach of the Year (+1800): There is going to be a lot of emphasis on Pederson’s coaching based on the way Meyer flamed out in such spectacular fashion in Jacksonville. This one is a bit tricky since the expectations are so low, but in a stacked AFC, a Jaguars playoff berth would definitely put Pederson on the short list of contenders. The Jaguars have +450 odds to make the postseason, so it’s not impossible at all. There will undoubtedly be other great candidates, but the narrative of Pederson turning around a sinking ship is one that could resonate with voters. At 18/1, it’s a fun wager to root for throughout 2022.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

It’s not like we can just snap our fingers and expect Lawrence to become a good NFL quarterback. Here is a list of recent top-3 draft picks who never became star quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Mitchell Trubisky.

There are also a lot of new pieces coming in, and it’s hard to know how everything will mesh. In a worst-case scenario this season, Lawrence has another poor campaign and Jacksonville finishes with the worst record in the NFL. At that point, they’d still probably stick with Lawrence, thereby passing on C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young in the draft.

Could you imagine if that happened, and then Lawrence subsequently flopped while one of the others became a superstar? Not a fun exercise for a Jaguars fanbase used to futility.

The Encouraging Conclusion

I truly do believe Jacksonville is headed in the right direction. The roster looks better this season, Lawrence has the tutelage of a smart head coach and the division is weak enough that a little bit of luck could keep Jacksonville in playoff contention for much of the year.

There are some bad teams that don’t have much of a road map to climb out of their hole. But the Jaguars boast a quarterback that can still be great, which allows Jacksonville fans to dream about better days ahead — possibly as soon as this season.

The Best Jaguars Bet For 2022: WR Christian Kirk over 825.5 receiving yards (-115)