Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The Seattle Seahawks Have Embraced the Tank

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I CHI I DET I HOU I NYJ 

Today’s Team: Seattle Seahawks

Season Win Total: 5.5 (Over -140; Under +120)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +500; No -650
Odds to Win Division: +1800
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +15000

In an age of tremendous NFL parity, the Seattle Seahawks pulled off quite the accomplishment, spending the past decade as a clear-cut Super Bowl contender. 

It was kickstarted by an unbelievable trio of drafts from 2010 through 2012 that brought in Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor, Russell Okung, Bruce Irvin, Golden Tate, and K.J. Wright, among others.

But all things must come to an end, and all of those players are finally gone following the trade of Wilson and the release of Wagner this offseason. 

It’s going to be weird to see Seattle sitting last in the NFC West this season, which seems like a mere formality. But I’ll give coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider credit: they are decisive.

They broke up the Legion of Boom earlier than expected and were able to adjust on the fly and remain a playoff team. Now they have torn the whole team down in hopes of building it back up.

Once the decision was made to trade Wilson — skip to the pessimism section for my thoughts on that — this was the only logical course of action.

What would the point have been to trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo? To win seven games instead of five?

The Seahawks will be bad this season with either Drew Lock or Geno Smith under center, but let’s zoom out. Seattle exploded into relevancy in 2012, and they will have a chance to do it again moving forward, with a bounty of Denver’s picks and its own.

So, yes, this year will be ugly, but Seattle fans should be happy the decision-makers have embraced the tank.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Future: The Seahawks have the fourth-best odds to finish with the worst record in the NFL this season. They are projected to win the third-fewest games by Football Outsiders. If they end up with the first or second pick in the draft, it would guarantee them a chance at top-tier quarterback prospects C.J. Stroud and/or Bryce Young. Nothing kickstarts a rebuild faster than the addition of a talented quarterback on a rookie contract — ask the Bengals, Cardinals and Bills, among others — and Seattle could very well be on a rocket-ship trajectory as soon as next season.

The Offensive Line: Wilson had very little protection during his stint in Seattle, but it was understandable to a degree. The defense was dominant, which meant Sherman, Thomas, Wagner, Chancellor, etc. eventually had to get paid, and there weren’t many resources to devote to the line. But the slate has been wiped clean and Seattle is now doing a smart job of building up the trenches in preparation for its next star signal-caller. Charles Cross was drafted with the No. 9 overall pick while right tackle Abraham Lucas was taken in the third round. If both pan out, that’s a great start to a revamped offensive line.

Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf: The Seahawks have a pair of extremely talented wide receivers who are both under contract through 2025. Lockett quietly had the best season of his career in 2021, finishing with 73 catches for 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns. He has played in at least 15 games in every year of his career, which makes his advancing age (Lockett will be 30 this season) less of a concern compared to receivers who have broken down physically. Metcalf is just 24 and entering the prime of his career. While 2022 may not be super conducive to a huge statistical season, he will be around for the next franchise quarterback after recently inking a three-year extension.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Seahawks

RB Rashaad Penny and RB Kenneth Walker II over a combined 11.5 rushing touchdowns (+150): Penny was a revelation down the stretch of 2021, carrying the ball 92 times for 671 yards and six touchdowns over the final five games. After Chris Carson’s career was cut short due to a neck injury, Penny should be the lead back in Seattle. Walker, the team’s second-round pick in the draft, should get work as well. Both are bigger running backs who will be relied on in the red zone. The Seahawks need to get there enough for this wager to hit, but I like the odds.

WR DK Metcalf over 66.5 receptions (-120): I’m not touching Metcalf’s receiving total of 900.5 this year because I have little faith that Smith or Lock can consistently get him the ball downfield. However, I do believe that Seattle is going to make it a priority to put the ball in Metcalf’s hands so he can try to make big plays for an offense that may be short on them. Metcalf has averaged 72 catches per season through three years and is entering the prime of his career. Even without Wilson, he should reach 67 receptions.

Seahawks over 4.5 wins (-250): This is an alternate win total and you’d be paying to drop it from 5.5, but I’d still do it to feel very good about the over hitting. The Seahawks won’t be a good team in 2022, obviously, but Carroll is a very good coach and a ball-control approach should keep many games competitive. It’s hard to imagine Seattle losing 13 games or more in 2022, and while the over would be the heavy favorite on this bet, it’s worth the juice to lock it in.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

Rashaad Penny most rushing yards in the NFL (+3000): Penny is a former first-round pick who didn’t find his footing with the Seahawks until the final five games of his fourth season. There is reason to be dubious that he can put it all together in 2022, but the talent is obvious, and the setup could be promising. While Walker lurks, it’s hard to know how much a player will contribute as a rookie. Seattle is undoubtedly going to run the ball, and if Penny gets the vast majority of those carries, he may be in the running for the rushing crown. While Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry are the deserved favorites, injuries are a part of life at running back, which makes this Penny wager pretty intriguing.

Rashaad Penny was ridiculous in the final five games of last season:

92 carries for 671 yards and 6 TD with an average of 7.3 yards per carry.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 5, 2022

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

This preview is looking at the Seahawks through the prism of a post-Russell-Wilson landscape, but I’m still shocked they dealt the franchise quarterback. Wilson is getting older but should still be capable of standout play for at least another half-decade. There was obviously some strife between Wilson and Carroll, and the organization made the wrong decision by choosing its coach over its quarterback.

If the Seahawks land a franchise signal-caller in next year’s draft, everything will be all well and good. If not, this rebuild could be ugly for an extended period. Lock or Smith, whoever wins the starting job, could very well be the worst quarterback in the NFL this season, and the defense has fallen off greatly since the Legion of Boom days.

The Encouraging Conclusion

Schneider and Carroll built a juggernaut once, so maybe they can do it again. Seattle was smart not to trade for Baker Mayfield and should stay away from Jimmy Garropolo.

There is so much parity in the NFL that teams can turn around quickly. But a quarterback is needed to get there, and the best way to find a new one is at the top of the draft. Seahawks fans should absolutely be rooting for losses from the get-go this season.

An “encouraging” 7-10 season would be the worst possible outcome because it would keep the quarterback situation in flux. Embrace the tank, Seattle, and then hold out hope that Schneider can again work the draft magic that has eluded him in recent years.

The Best Seahawks Bet For 2022: Penny and Walker over a combined 11.5 rushing touchdowns (+150)