Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The Pittsburgh Steelers Know What They Are Doing

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I CAR I CHI I DET I HOU I JAX I NYG I NYJ I SEA

Today’s Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

Season Win Total: 7.5 (Over +100; Under -120)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +350; No -450
Odds to Win Division: +1000
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +9000

The New England Patriots are the gold standard for recent organizational success in the NFL, but there is one franchise that isn’t far behind.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have shown time and again that its coaching and scouting staffs are extraordinary, which has resulted in constant winning seasons in a league known for its parity.

The 2022 season will test them, because while the recipe for success is still there, the main ingredient is not. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger retired this offseason, leaving a gaping hole at the game’s most important position.

The Steelers have a defense that should be great, an offensive supporting cast with promise and a head coach in Mike Tomlin who will get the most out of his football players.

If Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can adequately throw the ball, a streak of 18 straight seasons without a losing record may not be coming to the screeching halt that so many are predicting.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Defense: T.J. Watt is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Cameron Heyward is similarly dominant up front. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a star safety and the additions of linebacker Myles Jack and cornerback Levi Wallace could make the defense even better. The Steelers are No. 2 in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA heading into the season, which means that group should be able to do the heavy lifting and allow for the offense to be conservative and avoid costly mistakes.

Kenny Pickett: It’ll be awhile until we know if Pickett is indeed a true franchise quarterback, but the preseason returns are certainly encouraging. He is 19-of-22 for 171 yards and three touchdowns in two games with a Pro Football Focus grade of 74.5. Pickett throws a really nice deep ball, but his ability to dissect NFL defenses will make or break him. Pittsburgh hit the jackpot with Ben Roethlisberger back in 2004 and if it has found another franchise signal-caller in the draft, another decade of success could be on the horizon.

The Pass-Catchers: Pittsburgh has one of the more electric wideouts in the NFL in Diontae Johnson, and another solid veteran in Chase Claypool. Tight end Pat Freiermuth was a solid option last season, and rookie George Pickens has already made waves in training camp. The Steelers relied on the quick game last season, and could do more of it whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Pickett under center. It can work because of the talent around them.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Steelers

S Minkah Fitzpatrick over 2.5 interceptions (-125): The star safety was asked to be a pseudo linebacker last season, as he finished with 124 combined tackles to lead the team but only two interceptions. The front seven should not be such a sieve in 2022, which will allow Fitzpatrick to get back to his ballhawking ways in center field. Fitzpatrick had nine interceptions in his first two seasons with the Steelers before last year’s role change. While picks can be finicky, three is an attainable number.

RB Najee Harris over 1,150.5 rushing yards (-115): It may have taken him 307 carries, but Harris did get to 1,200 rushing yards last season as a rookie. The Steelers spent a first-round pick on him and seem intent on force-feeding Harris the ball throughout his rookie contract. The yards-per-carry last season was a pedestrian 3.9, which was just 42nd in the NFL. There should be some positive regression there, and even though the passing game flaws and offensive line issues could put a ceiling on the efficiency, Harris should get here through sheer volume.

Most touches in the NFL last season:

1. Najee Harris, 381
2. Jonathan Taylor, 372
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3. Joe Mixon, 334
4. Antonio Gibson, 300
5. Alvin Kamara, 287

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 24, 2022

TE Pat Freiermuth over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-130): The tight end was impressive as a rookie, finishing with 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. Freiermuth should once again be a prime red zone target no matter who plays quarterback. He was on the field for about two-thirds of the snaps last season, but after registering an overall Pro Football Focus grade of 72.3, there is little reason for Pittsburgh to keep him on the sidelines in 2022. Look for Freiermuth to be a big part of the Pittsburgh offense, and expect him to regularly find the end zone.

If You’re Feeling Bullish

Kenny Pickett to win Rookie of the Year (+900): Pickens has zoomed up the list of favorites, as he is now tied for the third-best odds at +1000. It is much easier for the first-year wideout to get on the field, but I still prefer the odds of Pickett. Trubisky may start the season under center, but his track record suggests it could be a short stint. Pickett has impressed and if he plays 12 or 13 games, that could be plenty to make an impression. Quarterbacks get the outsized share of attention, and Pickett is the rookie signal-caller with the clearest path to playing time. Instead of throwing a dart at one of the numerous wide receiver options, Pickett is the better play. Quarterbacks have won seven of the past 14 Rookie of the Year awards. 

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

The Steelers had a point-differential of negative-55 last season, signaling that their 9-7-1 record and berth in the playoffs was more luck than anything. Roethlisberger’s struggles were a major reason for that, and there is the distinct possibility that more issues at quarterback could torpedo this season.

Pittsburgh can have a bunch of things going for it, but if the passing attack is not at least competent, there is a low ceiling to reach. The Steelers are also in a really tough division, playing six games against the Ravens, Bengals and Browns.

The betting odds reflect the pessimism, as the Steelers are projected to finish last in the AFC North and miss the playoffs.

The Encouraging Conclusion

The Steelers did a masterful job of reloading on the fly when they drafted Roethlisberger all those years ago, and actually went 15-1 his first year. That’s not going to happen in 2022, but this team has a similar setup: a great defense and an offense with enough playmakers to take the pressure off the quarterback.

Trubisky seems like a slight upgrade over end-of-career Roethlisberger, while Pickett is the real wild card with true upside at the position.

The Steelers have such a good organizational structure that they should be mostly competitive this year, and there is the outside chance that the transition from Big Ben to a new quarterback is smooth and results in another great run of success.

The Best Steelers Bet For 2022: S Minkah Fitzpatrick over 2.5 interceptions (-125)