Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The Miami Dolphins Can Be This Year’s Bengals

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

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Today’s Team: Miami Dolphins

Season Win Total: 9
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +140; No -175
Odds to Win Division: +475
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4000

Ever since the NFL implemented the rookie wage scale, teams have found a tremendous competitive advantage: draft a solid quarterback on the cheap, load the roster around him, and then profit.

Teams like the Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Panthers, Chiefs and, most recently, the Bengals, have used the edge to make it to the Super Bowl.

The Bills, Bengals and Chargers are contenders that could fit that bill again in 2022, but there may be another overlooked one. Tua Tagovailoa is certainly not as decorated as Josh Allen, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, but there is still upside left, and a third-year ascension could put the Miami Dolphins on a rocket ship trajectory despite middling public expectations.

The roster has been loaded up around him, and now we see if Miami can follow the trail of Cincinnati by stunning the NFL with a rise to contention.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Playmakers: The Dolphins have an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions, as they added wide receiver Tyreek Hill, running back Chase Edmonds and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson this offseason to go along with holdover Jaylen Waddle. While Tagovailoa still has the upside to be good, there is also another way to find success, and we only need to look at coach Mike McDaniel’s former team, the 49ers, for evidence. San Francisco made the NFC Championship Game with a game manager (Jimmy Garoppolo) at quarterback because the parts around him were so talented. With Terron Armstead and Connor Williams added to the offensive line, Miami has the chance to be similarly explosive in 2022, star quarterback or not.

The System: McDaniel was the run-game coordinator for the 49ers, and it was one of the most impressive units in the NFL for the past several years. Kyle Shanahan deserves a lot of credit, but if McDaniel can duplicate its success in Miami, the Dolphins will be hitting on all cylinders. Edmonds was a prescient offseason pickup at an affordable price.

The Chase Edmonds buzz is growing in Miami. Clear RB1. Not a surprise to those of us who saw him in AZ.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 23, 2022

He has averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry the past three years and has the ability to run a wide receiver route tree. While many were initially expecting a committee backfield, it’s no surprise to see Edmonds take control as the clear lead back, as he was listed as one of the most explosive players in the NFL last season by NextGenStats and was No. 8 in the NFL in Rush Yards Over Expectation per attempt.

The Secondary: The Dolphins admittedly need some surprising seasons out of defenders up front in order to be an above average group. However, the defensive backs have a chance to be special. Xavien Howard is a ballhawk who remains one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and if Byron Jones can get healthy and ever reach the heights he found in Dallas, the coverage will be sticky. Jevon Holland has quickly made a name for himself as an up-and-coming safety, teaming with Brandon Jones as an effective duo. 

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Dolphins

Dolphins over nine wins (+100): Good value off the bat here, as the under is the favorite on Miami’s win total. It won’t be easy to get to double-digits, but knowing that nine results in a push, it’s a worthy play. The Dolphins have games against the Jets (twice), Steelers, Lions, Bears, Texans and a Deshaun Watson-less Browns team, all of which are winnable. There are tougher matchups on the slate and several downright scary opponents, but if the Dolphins’ offense clicks, 10 wins is attainable.

WR Tyreek Hill over 1,025.5 yards (-110): Hill no longer has Patrick Mahomes throwing him bombs down the field. This is true. However, this yardage total makes it seem like Tagovailoa will be incapable of getting him the ball downfield, which isn’t true. In fact, the offense could be set up well for big gainers, biding its time with horizontal stuff before play-action shots. Plus, Hill has the elite speed to take a short pass to the house at any time. Hill has gone over 1,180 receiving yards in four of the past five seasons, and has been very durable throughout his career. The over is the easy call.

WR Jaylen Waddle over 85.5 receptions (-115): Waddle was targeted a whopping 140 times as a rookie, and corraled 104 passes. The offense will be different this year and the presence of players like Hill, Wilson and Edmonds could bite into his target share. There is also the element of health, as Waddle is currently battling a leg injury. Despite those concerns, there is certainly some cushion, as Waddle’s receptions could drop by 18 and he’d still clear the total. The chemistry with Tua is good, and his game meshes well with the quick-game and RPO passes that the quarterback does well, so I expect Waddle’s receptions to remain steady in 2022.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

QB Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP (+5000): This one is a longshot, as Tua has yet to show that he is in the same tier as the league’s elite quarterbacks. But according to Football Outsiders, Tua was about league average a season ago, and now that the offense has added a ton of talent and the system is more conducive to success, he could hit a major groove. Players like Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones have similar odds, but it’s hard to envision those offenses becoming juggernauts. There are enough pieces in Miami to make it feel like this 50/1 wager is not akin to immediately lighting your money on fire.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

We all know an elite passing game starts with the quarterback. Tagovailoa is clearly behind Burrow and Herbert in his draft class, and there is a chance that he fails this season and finds himself as a backup in 2023. The offensive line is also a potential concern, as Armstead has been injury-prone in his career and the returning pieces were not particularly impressive last season.

Furthermore, the defense is projected to finish No. 27 in the NFL this season by Football Outsiders, which would make it tough to contend even if the offense does take a major step forward. Miami is one of those classic middle-of-the-road teams: if things go as planned, a surprise season is more than possible. If shortcomings come true, then an under .500 season could be on the docket.

The Encouraging Conclusion

Teams with Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady will always be confident that they can contend regardless of the pieces surrounding them. But there is the alternate way to build a roster, which is by stacking elsewhere and hoping the quarterback blossoms.

The Dolphins are in the second group, and even though they have better odds to miss the playoffs than to make them, the upside is intriguing. It’s easy to envision Tua throwing darts to Waddle and Hill, who break them off for big gains after the catch. And it’s easy to see a run game take off behind a great system and a talented back in Edmonds.

If the Dolphins hold up on defense, and if Tua finds his groove, Miami could be one of the NFL’s surprise teams in 2022.

The Best Dolphins Bet For 2022: Tyreek Hill over 1,025.5 receiving yards (-110)