Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The Houston Texans Are Terrible, But They Have a Plan

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive for all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Today’s Team: Houston Texans

Season Win Total: 4.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +1600; No -3500
Odds to Win AFC South: +3000
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +25000

Unbridled enthusiasm won’t be the right tact here, as well all know the Texans will struggle to roll out a competent outfit in 2022. They have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl in the NFL and are extreme longshots to simply make the playoffs.

Even so, there are reasons to be encouraged about the way they are trending. Sure, that may not come to fruition until 2023, or ‘24, or— gulp — ‘25, but it’s always better to have a clear plan rather than sit in NFL purgatory for years before going forward with a rebuild.

Three Reasons For Optimism

Davis Mills Could Possibly, Maybe, Hopefully Be a Franchise QB: Mills was drafted in the third round a season ago, and signal-callers this side of Russell Wilson rarely find success when taken that late. But Mills impressed in his rookie season, even with terrible personnel around him. Mills finished 9% below league average in yards per attempt and 5% below league average in quarterback rating.

He doesn’t have the pedigree of the two first picks in the draft, but Mills was demonstrably superior to Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson in their first years. Houston does not have great attachment to Mills because he wasn’t a first-round pick, but he will get the chance to show he is worthy of building around in 2022. The likelihood that he becomes the face of the franchise is pretty low, but it’s higher than at this point last year.

The Tank Is The Correct Path To Take: Houston had money to spend in free agency, but it signed a bunch of non-descript journeymen to fill out the roster. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Brandin Cooks are good players, but after that, yikes, this is a barren roster. But that’s OK! If Houston added expensive veterans in free agency, it would have raised the ceiling a bit but still resulted in a sub-.500 season. It’s smarter instead to tear all the way down, and if Mills doesn’t work out, have good odds to land Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud in next year’s quarterback-rich draft.

Welcome to the 2023 Texans, who are an utter blank slate.

-They will likely have more than $100 million in cap space.
-Laremy Tunsil's $35 million cap hit can be extended off of or moved.
-Brandin Cooks' void year carries one of the highest cap figures on the team. pic.twitter.com/iXHpr3qpCN

— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) March 19, 2022

The Deshaun Watson trade resulted in three first-round picks coming in from the Browns in future years, which will help build up the roster with potential stars on the cheap. The Texans correctly slow-played it this offseason, and will no doubt unleash the accelerant once a quarterback with clear-cut franchise upside is in place.

Football Outsiders Sees Sneaky Upside: When the respected analytics site dropped its preseason almanac, it was a surprise to see the Texans far from the bottom rung in projected wins. In fact, they checked in with a strikingly strong 7.9, which was No. 22 in the NFL. Some of the optimism comes from the schedule, as Houston gets the Jaguars twice, the vulnerable Titans twice and some fellow basement-dwellers. Additionally, there is a belief the defense won’t be awful. If FO is right and Houston reaches seven or eight wins this year, it could be enough to throw a downtown parade.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Texans

WR Brandin Cooks over 82.5 receptions (-115): Cooks is option A, B, C and D on offense, the one true game-breaking skill player. He had 90 catches on 134 targets a season ago, and despite being a vertical threat, should again get peppered with passes in 2022. Cooks has been around forever but he’s still only 28 years old and in the midst of his prime. Barring injury, Cooks seems like a great bet to reach 83-plus catches in 2022.

Texans over 4.5 wins (+100): The NFL has extreme parity, which we cannot forget heading into the season. Houston might have the least amount of talent of any club, but if Mills is competent, several games will still be close in the fourth quarter. There are 17 bites at the apple, and decent close-game luck would help the Texans surpass this total. Matchups with the Bears, Giants, Commanders and Jaguars are winnable, while unforeseen upsets are a fabric of the NFL, and Houston will likely shock at least one or two teams, making the ‘over’ at +100 the correct play.

CB Derek Stingley over 1.5 interceptions (+100): It’s going to be trial by fire for the No. 3 overall pick, as Stingley may chase around No. 1 receivers throughout the season. There are bound to be issues, as veteran pass-catchers will use their savvy to take advantage of the youngster. But Stingley is an athletic specimen with playmaking skills. The more targets that come his way, the better chance he has of securing some picks, so for this wager, it’s good that he’s likely to face elite foes. Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II seems like a good comp, and he had four interceptions as a rookie in 2021. Stingly needs only half that to hit on this bet.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

Brandin Cooks to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards (+5000): Cooks has a 1,200-yard season on his resume and once upon a time had a 98-yard touchdown catch. It would take a combination of elite instances like those in order to be in the mix for the highly-competitive yardage crown.

Chances are, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb and others will be in the forefront of this chase, but we’ve already talked about Cooks’ stature as the only real threat in Houston. If Mills takes a step forward and Cooks escapes the defense for some long scores, who knows? The Texans are going to be trailing plenty and there will be some garbage time yards. It’s a longshot, but at 50/1, a fun one to grab.

OK, Some Pessimism

This article can’t be all sunshine, and on a moral level, the Texans have some explaining to do. Houston settled lawsuits with 30 women who may have been preparing to accuse them of culpability in Watson’s alleged sexual misconducts. It’s infuriating that the organization may have enabled Watson’s troubling behavior, and this reeks of a decision made to lighten the P.R. hit.

On the field, the Texans are almost completely bereft of game-changing talent, and while the Football Outsiders projection was kind, reality is that Houston could really struggle to stay competitive in 2022. If things go wrong this year, the Texans could absolutely finish as the worst team in the NFL.

The Encouraging Conclusion

The Texans are going to be somewhere between terrible and subpar in 2022, but at least there is a cogent plan in place. It’s better to hit rock bottom than to be, say, the Panthers, who have little chance of being a contender this season but have poured resources into the quarterback position the past few years. All that will do is keep Carolina from landing a blue-chip quarterback prospect in the draft.

The Texans are taking the right path, even if it’s going to be bumpy for at least the next two seasons. But rebuilding teams can be fun to follow because the expectations are so low. And if Houston is more competitive than expected this season, it could be a downright exciting time as the fanbase undoubtedly yearns to usher in a new era.

The Best Texans Bet for 2022: Brandin Cooks ‘Over’ 82.5 Receptions