Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The Detroit Lions Are Building Something Exciting

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I HOU

Today’s Team: Detroit Lions

Season Win Total: 6.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: No -550
Odds to Win Division: +1000
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +15000

The Detroit Lions finished with the second-worst record in the NFL a season ago at 3-13-1, but it wasn’t an utter disaster. They beat the Arizona Cardinals, tied the Pittsburgh Steelers and lost close games to the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons.

While the postseason is still a longshot in 2022, there is an air of competency surrounding the Lions and coach Dan Campbell that has been in short supply for much of their existence as a franchise. The Lions should improve incrementally this season, which could put them on a real path to competitiveness by 2023.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Young Core: Detroit is sneakily building something solid. Check out the skill talent, all of which is 25 and younger: running back D’Andre Swift, tight end T.J. Hockenson and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams. The offensive line, headlined by Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow, has an easy argument as a top-10 unit. The defensive line also has intriguing young pieces, led by No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson. Quarterback Jared Goff has a limited ceiling and the Lions aren’t going to be great this season, but there are some definite building blocks.

The Lions' skill group is more intriguing than I first thought.

RB: D'Andre Swift
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR: D.J. Chark
WR: Jameson Williams
TE: T.J. Hockenson

A lot of talent 25 & younger.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) July 28, 2022

The Draft: Hutchinson was projected to be the No. 1 overall pick for a long time, and the Lions had to be excited about getting him with the second choice. They traded up for Williams at No. 12 overall, who tore his ACL in the national championship game but is an intriguing young talent who they won’t need to rush back onto the field. Defensive end Josh Pascal was taken in the second round and could help rev up the pass rush. Detroit didn’t splash with a young quarterback, but found players that should add to the puzzle.

The Coach: Campbell made headlines for the “biting kneecaps” quote early in his tenure, reinforcing the idea that Detroit hired an old-school coach who might not be a fit for an evolving game. But he was a delightful surprise throughout the season, continually using aggressiveness on fourth downs and elsewhere in an attempt to steal games against more-talented foes. Between his game management and a clear ability to connect with players, the Lions likely hit a home run with the hire.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Lions

Lions over 6.5 wins (-115): I’ve expounded on why Detroit has the ability to be improved, and I’ll put my money where my mouth is. Football Outsiders projects Detroit to win eight games this year between offensive improvement and a relatively easy schedule. The Lions need to capture more close games than a year ago for this to hit, but with Campbell at the helm, I’m confident positive regression is coming.

Amon-Ra St. Brown over 850.5 receiving yards (-115): The fourth-rounder looked the part from the start of his rookie season, and then absolutely took off down the stretch when T.J. Hockenson went out. St. Brown ended 2021 with 90 catches for 912 yards, including 560 yards in the final six games. If Hockenson, Swift and Chark are healthy, there won’t be as many targets to go around, but considering Williams might not be a major factor as a rookie, St. Brown should still command plenty of passes. I think the fine rookie season was an appetizer of what’s to come.

Aidan Hutchinson over 7.25 sacks (-125): There is a segment of draft analysts that don’t love Hutchinson’s ceiling, but even if he never becomes a monster edge-rusher, the blend of athleticism and polish should make him a contributor from Day One. Hutchinson will get plenty of playing time and opportunity to get after quarterbacks. The defensive front should be solid enough to help him out, and while this sack total is pretty high for a rookie, I think Hutchinson gets there.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

D’Andre Swift Most Rushing Yards in the NFL (+6000): There was an intriguing two-game stretch last season, after Dan Campbell assumed play-calling duties, when Swift averaged 23.5 carries and 133 rushing yards per game. Swift hurt his shoulder the next week and missed four games before seeing irregular handoffs in the final two weeks.

Injuries have been a problem and Swift is only 5-foot-9, so it seems more likely than not his carries cap out at around 15 per game in 2022, which would keep him away from the rushing yardage leaders.

But Swift is healthy again now, and reportedly bulked up. If Campbell believed in him as a bellcow when he became the play-caller, maybe he still does. The Lions have an offensive line that can maul, and Swift is a dynamic athlete.

A lot of things would need to come together for this to hit, but I like the lottery ticket at +6000.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

There is  well-deserved optimism about the long-term outlook of Detroit, but there is still a lack of elite game-changers on the roster. Goff is a below average quarterback and his skill guys will still need to progress in order to be considered legitimate stars.

Even if the Lions improve in 2022, there doesn’t seem to be a Bengals-like ascension waiting because the team doesn’t have a Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase duo. Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1992, and it would be a minor miracle if that happened this year. 

When eight wins is considered a good season, expectations are too low for the fans in the great state of Michigan.

The Encouraging Conclusion

So, yeah, another losing season likely awaits. But even if this series wasn’t called ‘Optimist Alley’ I’d still be bullish on the Lions. They are drafting well and filling some premium positions with talented players.

The quarterback position must be upgraded for Detroit to flip the script and become a true contender, but the draft has some good options, and it seems like upper-tier signal-callers are changing teams every offseason these days (the Lions would know!) 

The Lions tore everything down last offseason, firing Matt Patricia and dealing Matthew Stafford. After only one season among the dregs of the league, the outlook seems bright, and progress in 2022 would really give this franchise some juice at the same time as Aaron Rodgers’ career should finally be winding down.

The Best Lions Bet For 2022: Detroit ‘over’ 6.5 wins (-115)