Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade?
It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.
Past Previews: ARZ I ATL I CAR I CHI I DET I HOU I JAX I LV I MIA I NE I NO I NYG I NYJ I PIT I SEA I TEN I WAS
Today’s Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Season Win Total: 9.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes -130; No +110
Odds to Win Division: +170
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +2200
The Cincinnati Bengals stunned the football world in 2021, skipping the baby steps part of their rebuild by vaulting from also-ran to Super Bowl participant in just one season.
Joe Burrow announced himself as one of the league’s best quarterbacks, while wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase emerged as one of the most lethal playmakers in the league as a rookie.
There is an element of regression expected in certain areas this season, as the passing game was so hyper-efficient that there may be nowhere to go but down, but there are also plenty of reasons to believe this team is just getting started.
While Cincinnati was a wonderful Cinderella story in 2021, the Bengals feel like far from a flash in the pan. In 2022 and beyond, they have all the ingredients to become a perennial contender in the AFC.
Three Reasons For Optimism
Joe Burrow: The former No. 1 overall pick had an up-and-down rookie season that ended prematurely due to a torn ACL. But Year 2 was absolutely fantastic. Burrow led the NFL in yards per attempt (8.9), Completion Percentage Over Expectation (+6.0) and completion percentage (70.4) as Cincinnati vastly outplayed expectations. Burrow showed everything you’d want to see from a franchise quarterback, and it is his presence that gives credence to the idea of Super Bowl contention for the foreseeable future in Cincinnati.
Ja’Marr Chase: The Bengals were criticized for taking Chase over tackle Penei Sewell in the draft. But, umm, yeah, they made the right call. Chase finished his rookie season with 81 catches for an astounding 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. He is still just 22 years old and figures to team with Burrow as one of the most explosive quarterback-wide receiver tandems for years to come. The Bengals could have chosen for need in last year’s draft but deftly chose the most talented player, and will be reaping the rewards for years.
A Revamped Offensive Line: Burrow led the NFL in one other category last season: Sacks taken. He was sacked 51 times for 370 yards, as the offensive line had plenty of struggles. But with Burrow and Chase still on their rookie contracts, there was ample salary cap space to remake the group. Veterans Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins were all added and should bring stability to the group. A huge leap forward in protection is reason to believe in the continued dominance by the Cincinnati passing game.
Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Bengals
Trey Hendrickson over 11.75 sacks (+100): Even though his name is not always spoken alongside the elite sack artists in the NFL, Hendrickson is among them. He registered 13.5 for the Saints in 2020 and put up 14 last season for the Bengals, which is third-most in the NFL over that span behind T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett. Hendrickson was named the most impactful pass-rusher in the NFL in 2021 by NextGenStats and is in line for another productive campaign in 2022. If the Bengals are regularly ahead late in games, Hendrickson will be able to pin his ears back and get after the passer. This sack total is high, but he can get there.
NFL sack leaders over the past two years:
1. T.J. Watt, 37.5
2. Myles Garrett, 28
3. Trey Hendrickson, 27.5
4. Aaron Donald, 26
5. Haason Reddick, 23.5— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 2, 2022
RB Joe Mixon over 1,050.5 rushing yards (-115): Mixon has gone over this number in three of the past four years, including a career-high 1,205 rushing yards in 2021. There is going to be a ton of focus on stopping Cincinnati’s aerial attack in 2022, which should give Mixon plenty of light boxes to run against. He is a talented back who is assured of getting a lion’s share of the carries when healthy, so I feel like injuries are the only legitimate way he finishes under 1,050.5 yards. The improved offensive line is also reason to be optimistic about a big season for Mixon.
QB Joe Burrow over 4,450.5 passing yards (+100): Burrow sat for a game last season and still sailed past this figure, finishing with 4,611 passing yards in 2021. The yards-per-attempt figure is unlikely to approach 8.9 again, but Burrow’s attempts are also likely to solidly increase this year after he only threw 520 passes last season. Between a healthy knee, total confidence in the offense and fewer sacks (and thus more attempts), Burrow is a good bet to get to at least 4,500 passing yards in 2022, even if he does miss a game due to injury.
If You’re Feeling Very Bullish
WR Ja’Marr Chase to win Offensive Player of the Year (+3000): These odds are longer than for many of the other elite receivers in the NFL. The issue is that if Chase has a huge year, so too will Burrow, and they could cancel each other out by splitting votes. That seems less likely for some of the favorites like Justin Jefferson and Deebo Samuel. Even so, Chase has such exquisite talent that he could easily lead the NFL in receiving yards this season. He is one of only four players with a touchdown reception over/under in double digits, and we could be seeing the start of a Hall of Fame career begin to materialize with another standout campaign. This is a very intriguing play at 30/1 because Chase has the type of talent to put up obscene stats in his second NFL campaign.
OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism
The Bengals were so hyper efficient through the air last season that the law of averages says they will come back to earth in 2022. Can progress by Burrow, his elite group of wideouts and the offensive line mitigate that potential regression? Possibly, but it’s a legitimate concern to have.
The defense is projected to be middle of the pack by Football Outsiders, which is OK, but a team with Super Bowl aspirations would be better-served if that group can sneak its way into the top-10. Hendrickson and safety Jessie Bates are stars, but a pass defense that ranked No. 24 in the NFL last season in DVOA must be better.
And even though the Deshaun Watson suspension has made the path to a division title much clearer, the Bengals will still have to deal with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, and a first-place schedule that includes games against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Bills and others will be challenging.
The Encouraging Conclusion
Even though the Bengals shocked the NFL by making it to the Super Bowl last season, they finished the season with a point-differential of plus-84 and showed week in and week out that they could compete with the league’s top teams.
The offense is again teeming with talent and could easily be among the best in the NFL this season. Cincinnati filled some holes this offseason and has everything needed to be among the top contenders in a stacked AFC.
Now it’s time for Joe Brr, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and Co. to do it again, proving that 2021 was no fluke.
The Best Bengals Bet For 2022: Bengals to make the playoffs (-130)
