Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: The Atlanta Falcons Rip Off the Band-Aid

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: HOU

Today’s Team: Atlanta Falcons

Season Win Total: 5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +800; No -1200
Odds to Win NFC South: +2800
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +20000

The headline to this article may not sound like a good thing, but it is. There is nothing worse than a fraudulent seven- or eight-win team deluding itself into thinking the playoffs and Super Bowl are realistic with a few minor tweaks.

Atlanta went 7-10 last year but was outscored by 146 points and finished among the worst teams in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. In fact, the analytics site called the Falcons “the worst seven-win team in NFL history.” 

A team badly in need of a reboot is getting one.

Three Reasons For Optimism

Matt Ryan’s Departure Was Botched, But Needed: Atlanta messed up the Matt Ryan situation by publicly pursuing Deshaun Watson to replace him. Ryan was rightfully unhappy and requested a trade, ultimately landing in Indianapolis. The Falcons are going to be worse off in the short-term, but a normal offseason and the return of Ryan simply would have delayed the inevitable rebuild. Even though the trade compensation was small — just a third-round pick — and the dead hit was big — $40.5 million! — it was necessary so the Falcons can stop hoping their 2016 Super Bowl team magically reappears and start moving forward.

The Dynamic Duo of Kyle Pitts and Drake London: The Falcons don’t have a ton of young pieces to build around, but the pass-catching duo of Pitts and London is a great place to start. Pitts surpassed 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie and finished with the fifth-highest Pro Football Focus Grade of any tight end, behind established stars Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce. He is already a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and London, the No. 8 overall pick in the draft, will aim to follow suit with a promising rookie campaign. If London also lives up to the hype, the Falcons will have a pair of talented, cheap players at a premium position that can be building blocks for the future. Calvin Ridley, another young playmaker, is suspended for the season for sports betting, but he would make it a super intriguing trio if the standout receiver stays in Atlanta long-term.

Top-five tight end grades in 2021, via @PFF:

1. Mark Andrews, 91.5
2. George Kittle, 90.9
3. Dallas Goedert, 88.9
4. Travis Kelce, 81.9
5. Kyle Pitts, 80.3

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) July 21, 2022

Cornerback Upside: The name of the game in the NFL is passing. The Falcons have the aforementioned Pitts, London and maybe Ridley for whenever they find a quarterback. On defense, they have one of the most underrated stars in the game in elite cover man A.J. Terrell. He finished second in the NFL among cornerbacks in coverage grade last season, per Pro Football Focus — only Jalen Ramsey was better — and is an ascending talent at 23 years old. Across from him, the Falcons made an astute move by signing cornerback Casey Hayward to a reasonable two-year, $11 million contract in free agency. Rebuilds can happen quickly in the NFL, and if Atlanta pulls a Cincinnati and suddenly becomes competitive in 2023, Hayward could be a key piece. If Hayward starts to show his age, he can be cut at just a $2 million dead money hit next year. Atlanta has issues up front on both sides of the ball, but it has done a good job of addressing premium positions.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Falcons

TE Kyle Pitts over 900.5 receiving yards (-115): As a rookie, Pitts amassed 1,026 receiving yards, quickly ascending to Ryan’s top target in the passing game. Marcus Mariota is not the same traditional dropback passer, but Pitts is still going to be his go-to guy. Most players improve in Year 2, and this over/under gives some cushion in case Pitts does regress or miss games. 

Yards per route run leaders among rookie WR/TE in 2021:

1. J. Chase, 2.44
2. K. Toney, 2.14
3. K. Pitts, 2.02
T4. E. Moore, 1.75
T4. J. Waddle, 1.75
6. A. St. Brown, 1.74
7. D. Smith, 1.73
8. R. Moore, 1.65
T9. R. Bateman, 1.26
T9. P. Freiermuth, 1.26

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) July 21, 2022

TE Kyle Pitts over 68.5 receptions (-130): Sensing a theme? The bettors have already jumped on this number but it’s still a worthy play at -130 juice. Without Ridley and with London still learning the NFL game, Pitts is already the clear-cut first option. He will also be a great safety valve for Mariota, who has a track record of preferring easy throws to more-dangerous ones. Pitts had 68 catches last year and should only go up from there.

LB Deion Jones over 119.5 tackles (-115): There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Jones’ future with the Falcons, but in some respects that works in the bettor’s favor here. Whether he remains in Atlanta or heads elsewhere, Jones will be a full-time player in 2022, and the tackle total can be reached. He accumulated 137 tackles a season ago despite missing one game, and if Jones remains in Atlanta, the defensive line is weak enough that plenty of running backs will be flowing his way.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

Arthur Smith to Win NFL Coach of the Year (+5000): Smith is tied for the longest odds in the NFL to win Coach of the Year, but hear me out. Atlanta is only +800 to make the playoffs. It’s still a longshot, but if the Falcons manage to eke their way in, Smith could get some buzz for getting them there. Last year was almost the perfect blueprint. The Falcons were a terrible team but still won seven games. It’s not completely out of the realm that they combine close-game luck with better-than-expected play and grab a wild card. At 50/1, it’s a fun lottery ticket.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

I’ve tried extremely hard to avoid the quarterback situation as much as possible throughout this article, but now that we’ve reached the pessimism section, it must be said: Mariota will be the Falcons’ starting quarterback in 2022, which severely limits this team’s upside. Maybe third-round pick Desmond Ridder takes over at some point, and if he amounts to something, the Falcons will suddenly be on an encouraging track.

But Ridder likely isn’t the answer, and Atlanta is in the unenviable position of having no current plan at quarterback, nor a future one. There is a lot of movement in the NFL these days, as evidenced by Watson, Ryan, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and a host of others changing teams this offseason, so maybe the Falcons will fill the spot in due time.

Until then, the Falcons can build the roster up all they want, but competitiveness won’t come until a competent signal-caller takes the reins.

The Encouraging Conclusion

Now that we are back into sunshine mode, let’s play a fun game: Say the Falcons are terrible in 2022, and they land elite quarterback prospects Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud in the draft.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on the short-list of Super Bowl favorites and the New Orleans Saints look like a playoff team in 2022, but Tampa will need to rebuild when Tom Brady retires, and the Saints can’t keep avoiding their salary cap woes forever (though they act like they can).

If both of those teams hit the reset button soon, suddenly it is the Falcons who may be best-positioned to take over the captain seat in the NFC South. So, sure, Atlanta fans wish they could simulate this season, but settle in and watch Pitts and London progress.

In two years, you will — maybe! — be the new king of the hill in the division.

The Best Falcons Bet For 2022: TE Kyle Pitts ‘over’ 900.5 receiving yards