Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: Las Vegas Raiders Have the Pieces to Compete in Vaunted AFC West

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

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Today’s Team: Las Vegas Raiders

Season Win Total: 8.5 (Over -130; Under +110)
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +150; No -195
Odds to Win Division: +650
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4000

The Las Vegas Raiders have the bad fortune of being in the same division as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs year after year. And then this offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers loaded up around star quarterback Justin Herbert and the Denver Broncos traded for Russell Freaking Wilson.

No one would have blamed Las Vegas for tearing it all down under new coach Josh McDaniels, choosing to bide its time instead of pushing for competitiveness in 2022.

But Las Vegas entered the arms race as well, adding star wideout Davante Adams, star edge rusher Chandler Jones and others. They are projected to finish last in the best division in football, but the Raiders are not built like others with fourth-place projections.

The mountain to contention is steep, but it’s scalable if everything goes right this season.

Three Reasons For Optimism

The Skill Player Trio: Darren Waller has already established himself as one of the NFL’s premier tight ends. Hunter Renfrow quietly racked up a 1,000-yard season with nine touchdowns in 2021. Now you add in Adams, and there are multiple ways for Las Vegas to move the ball offensively. A strong passing game is the best way to succeed in the NFL, and the Raiders have the pieces to do so.

Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones: If a passing game is the No. 1 priority in team-building, pressuring the opposing signal-caller is No. 2. The Raiders made a savvy move in free agency, inking Chandler Jones to a three-year, $51 million contract. Jones finished tied for ninth in pass-rush grade last season, per Pro Football Focus, and has been one of the NFL’s premier sack artists for years. Crosby finished No. 4 on the list, as the Raiders are the only team in the league that boast two in last year’s top-10.

The only team with two players who finished top-10 in PFF pass-rush grading last season? The Raiders.

Maxx Crosby was fourth and Chandler Jones was tied for ninth.

— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 29, 2022

Derek Carr’s Upside: Opinions diverge wildly about Carr, and honestly, I’m probably in the group that considers him good but not close to great. With that being said, Carr has a high enough ceiling to get the Raiders’ offense humming this year. His yards-per-attempt numbers the past three seasons have been about 15% better than league average, and if he can pump that up to somewhere between 20-25%, all of a sudden the Raiders’ offense will be scary. There are plenty of quarterbacks I’d choose before Carr, but he is good enough to get things rolling in Vegas if the other parts of the equation hold up.

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Raiders

Edge Maxx Crosby over 9.75 sacks (-130): I love this bet, and obviously plenty of others do, too, based on the juice. Crosby was one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL last season even though he only garnered eight sacks in total. That number should spike this year, as the myriad pressures turn into sacks. The addition of Jones is big, as some teams will focus their attention on stopping him, allowing Crosby more ideal matchups on his side. He reached double-digit sacks as a rookie and should again in 2022.

QB Derek Carr over 29.5 passing touchdowns (-115): The Raiders’ veteran gunslinger hasn’t reached the 30-touchdown plateau since 2015, his second year in the league. Carr threw for only 23 in 17 games last season, but there are a couple reasons why I like this bet. First is the addition of Adams, who had an NFL-best 18 touchdown grabs all by himself in 2020, and had 11 last year. Second is Waller, who only had two touchdown catches last season but is poised for positive regression there. And third is the schedule. The Raiders could be in plenty of shootouts this season, which means Carr will be throwing a lot, especially late in games, which will help push this total over the projected number.

WR Hunter Renfrow over 77.5 receptions (+110): Some plus money here, as the addition of Adams is going to pull a lot of targets away from Renfrow. He’s unlikely to finish with 128 targets or 103 catches like last year, but I still like the over. Renfrow had a catch percentage of 80.5 last season and is a very good route-runner. Adams will command a lot of attention, which means Renfrow should be open a lot on intermediate routes against one-on-one coverage, and Carr should be able to find him enough for this bet to hit.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

WR Davante Adams to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1800): I’m not convinced that Carr is going to be efficient enough to be in the MVP race. However, Adams should get gobs of targets and rack up a sizable number of receiving yards and scores. It could follow last year’s playbook, where Cooper Kupp won the award while playing with a talented but sometimes erratic quarterback in Matthew Stafford. This award may start to move toward the pass-catchers and running backs because quarterbacks now have a monopoly on the MVP. Adams could take advantage, at odds that seem very fair.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

We’ve made it this far without talking about the gauntlet of a schedule the Raiders must face in 2022. They get the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers two times apiece, and a .500 record in those games would be a minor miracle. There are also plenty of others that will be tough, namely: the Cardinals, Titans, Saints, Rams, 49ers, Colts, Patriots and Steelers.

Las Vegas is talented enough to be a viable contender in most divisions, but winning the AFC West would be a sizable upset.

Furthermore, while Las Vegas made the playoffs last season, it did so with a negative-65 point-differential, which implies that there will be some weaknesses that carry over from last year’s squad.

The Raiders have upside because they have stars at the right positions, but there is also the legitimate risk that the overall talent on the roster is not good enough, and that they miss the playoffs entirely in 2022.

The Encouraging Conclusion

The Raiders focused on the right positions this offseason, putting major emphasis in improving their passing game and pass-rush. If the high-profile additions of Adams and Jones work out, Las Vegas could certainly become a surprise contender in the AFC.

It will take a career year from Carr and a bounceback from Waller, but the ceiling is that high for this group. The Raiders did not back down when the AFC West quickly became the most dominant division in the NFL.

They will begin the season as the underdog, but have elite players in the right spots to make some noise.

The Best Raiders Bet For 2022: Maxx Crosby over 9.75 sacks (-130)