Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade?
It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.
Past Previews: ATL I CAR I CHI I DET I HOU I JAX I LV I MIA I NE I NO I NYG I NYJ I PIT I SEA I TEN I WAS
Today’s Team: Arizona Cardinals
Season Win Total: 8.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +125; No -150
Odds to Win Division: +400
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4000
When the Arizona Cardinals hired Kliff Kingsbury in 2019, he was billed as the offensive whiz kid poised to take the NFL world by storm.
The team’s win trajectory — from three to five to eight to 11 — has lived up to the hype, but the promise of offensive electricity has thus far been unfulfilled.
The Cardinals have finished in the middle of the pack in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency in each of Kingsbury’s three seasons, including a No. 15 ranking in 2021.
Despite the lack of sustained success, the flashes have been there.
Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray immediately lifted Arizona out of laughingstock territory in their first year together, and Murray spearheaded a 10-2 start last season that had the Cardinals looking like serious Super Bowl contenders.
With a defense expected to regress in 2022, the Cardinals need their offense to reach that elite status for a championship opportunity to materialize.
The good news? This group seems primed for liftoff.
Three Reasons For Optimism
Kyler Murray: There is no person on the planet with Murray’s preternatural ability to juke a linebacker out of his shoes on one play and throw a dime 40 yards downfield the next. While the electric rushing ability garners many of the highlights, Murray was No. 2 in the NFL in Completion Percentage Over Expectation in 2021, a reminder of his potent accuracy. Murray led the NFL in myriad categories when the Cardinals started 7-0, but a sprained ankle caused him to miss three games and may have hindered him down the stretch. At only 25 years old, the possibility of true greatness awaits in 2022, as Murray has a ceiling only a handful of other quarterbacks in the NFL can attain.
Leaders in Completion Percentage Over Expectation in 2021:
1. Joe Burrow, +6.0
2. Kyler Murray, +3.9
3. Aaron Rodgers, +3.3
4. Kirk Cousins, +2.4
5. Derek Carr, +2.2— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 31, 2022
The Safeties: The pessimism section will outline the issues defensively, but the safety position is one of the strongest in the NFL. Budda Baker was recently labeled as one of the five most impactful defenders in football when it comes to expected wins added, while Jalen Thompson is the best safety in the NFL that no one outside of Arizona has heard about. Furthermore, Isaiah Simmons is set to play a hybrid safety/linebacker position in 2022. Wherever he technically lines up, it seems clear the Cardinals plan to use Simmons in coverage moreso than against the run, and he’s looked eminently more comfortable in space than in the box early in his career, so the move should pay dividends.
The Pass-Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six weeks after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. However, when he gets back, the Cardinals will have a terrific quartet of available passing-game options for Murray. Hopkins remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, while Hollywood Brown gives the offense a deep threat that has been missing the past few years. Rondale Moore is the jitterbug slot receiver Kingsbury has been searching for, while Zach Ertz is a serviceable veteran tight end that should also be productive. If the Cardinals can get all four of these weapons on the field for a considerable chunk of the season, the offense will be hard to stop.
Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Cardinals
QB Kyler Murray over 4,050.5 passing yards (-110): Murray has never cleared the 4,000-yard mark in a season, but that would have been a formality in 2021 if not for the sprained ankle that limited him to the 14 games. He averaged 270.5 passing yards per game, which was easily a career-high, and finished top-5 in the NFL with an average of 7.9 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals could be in several shootouts this season, which will boost Murray’s yardage production.
Kyler to Hollywood (video by @Tdrake4sports) pic.twitter.com/ARLmTuOoM8
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 31, 2022
Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz to combine for over 1,995.5 receiving yards (-115): With Hopkins out for six games, these three are going to be the primary targets for Murray early on. Running back James Conner had an unbelievable receiving season in 2021, but he should come back to earth in 2022, which allows for more opportunities for the aforementioned trio. Teams will game-plan differently from week to week, so it’s nice having all three in the same wager. Murray is good at spreading the ball around, so each will have their turn to shine. When it’s all combined, I’m confident in Brown, Moore and Ertz combining to hit 2,000 receiving yards provided one isn’t lost for a significant chunk of the season.
RB James Conner over 9.5 rushing touchdowns (-110): There are reasons to be wary of another Pro Bowl season from Conner. He had a subpar yards-per-carry mark in 2021 and has a long history of injuries. But if he can stay healthy for most of the season, there’s no doubt he is going to be a big player around the goal-line. The Cardinals have four other running backs on the roster but no one who is going to threaten his role as the lead back and the goal-line go-to. Conner had 15 rushing touchdowns a year ago, and while regression should be coming, another double-digit campaign seems on the way.
If You’re Feeling Very Bullish
QB Kyler Murray to win MVP (+2000): In early December of last year, I polled several ex-NFL players and media members about Murray’s MVP candidacy despite missing the three games. It was nearly unanimous that he could still win the award, which is a reminder of just how good he was for most of 2022. It all came crashing down late, but Murray’s ankle injury, the absence of Hopkins and injury/health issues for center Rodney Hudson and left tackle D.J. Humphries severely affected the offense. What’s to say that early stretch wasn’t the real Arizona offense? Murray is near his athletic peak and now has three seasons worth of experience dissecting NFL defenses. The Cardinals are going to need to score to keep up with their opponents this season, and I’m confident Murray will register the best statistical season of his career. That may be enough to put him in the MVP conversation.
NFL MVP odds, via BetMGM:
Josh Allen +700
Patrick Mahomes +800
Tom Brady +800
Justin Herbert +850
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Joe Burrow +1200
Dak Prescott +1200
Matthew Stafford +1400
Russell Wilson +1400
Lamar Jackson +2000
Kyler Murray +2200
Jalen Hurts +2500
Derek Carr +2500— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 9, 2022
OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism
First and foremost, the schedule is tough. Like, toughest in the league tough, per Football Outsiders. The Cardinals face their NFC West foes twice, the AFC West gauntlet of the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos and Raiders, plus the Buccaneers, Eagles, Saints and Patriots for good measure.
And there are some roster issues. The Cardinals finished No. 10 and No. 6 in defensive efficiency the past two seasons, as defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s group was the biggest reason for the team success.
However, Arizona is projected to be a bottom-five defense this year by Football Outsiders. It was lucky in short-yardage in 2021, which tends to regress to the mean quickly, while the personnel shortcomings cannot be overlooked.
The Cardinals are projected to win fewer games than the Texans and Lions this season by Football Outsiders.
Here are the reasons why:https://t.co/4VxOJAHVmo
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 2, 2022
Chandler Jones left in free agency and was not replaced. Linebacker Jordan Hicks, defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, outside linebacker Devon Kennard and cornerback Robert Alford are other veterans who have also departed.
A trade for Trayvon Mullen helped shore up the cornerback group this week, but it’s still one of the weakest in the NFL on paper. The edge rushers are an even bigger concern. The best of the bunch, Markus Golden, may be holding in right now, unhappy with his salary, and he is flanked by myriad unproven pieces.
A lot of concern about the cornerbacks but this Cardinals edge-rushing group is just as suspect.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 29, 2022
If the defense can’t finish league average, it could be hard for Arizona to have a legitimate Super Bowl ceiling. The good news is that Joseph has been an absolute maestro when it comes to schematics and play-calling, and he may be able to scheme up success this year despite the obvious personnel deficiencies.
On offense, the offensive line is old, which heightens the injury risk. The group had issues late last season, and if teams get consistent interior pressure on Murray again in 2022, it will be hard for him to find a rhythm and make plays.
Despite the presence of the dual-threat Murray, the Cardinals finished just No. 22 in rushing efficiency last season, and this year doesn’t promise to be much better. Chase Edmonds is gone after finishing No. 8 in rushing DVOA a season ago, and there is no one on the roster that has similar burst or receiving ability.
The Encouraging Conclusion
The Cardinals have weaknesses on defense and in the running game, but luckily, those can be overcome with an elite passing attack.
It’s easier said than done for an offense to explode in the NFL, but the weapons are there in 2022. Murray is poised to join the list of the best quarterbacks in the league, and the receiving trio of Hopkins, Brown and Moore gives him a lot to work with down the field.
The clock is ticking on the Cardinals, who have two more years of Murray at an extreme discount before his cap hit surges to $51.9 million in 2024.
We’ve reached the championship-or-bust part of the Arizona rebuild, and in order to make a Super Bowl run, these birds must take flight on offense.
The Best Cardinals Bet For 2022: Kyler Murray to Win MVP (+2000)
