Optimist Alley 2022 NFL Season Preview: Carolina Panthers Hope the Quarterback Carousel Stops at Baker Mayfield

Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade? 

It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.

Past Previews: ATL I CHI I DET I HOU I JAX I NYJ I SEA

Today’s Team: Carolina Panthers

Season Win Total: 6.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +350; No -450
Odds to Win Division: +900
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +13000

The Carolina Panthers have some fun pieces on offense. 

Running back Christian McCaffrey might be the best player in the NFL at his position. D.J. Moore is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league. First-round pick Ikem Ekwonu has the potential to be a franchise left tackle.

But the position where it all starts? That has been a dead-end throughout coach Matt Rhule’s tenure.

The Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield this offseason, continuing the quarterback carousel that has included Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater and P.J. Walker since 2020.

The good news: Mayfield has considerably more upside than the others, and at least has one above-average season on his resume. The former No. 1 overall pick undoubtedly struggled in Cleveland last season, and he is prone to throwing picks and taking sacks.

However, Mayfield can move the ball downfield. He’s proven that. Carolina probably would’ve been better off tanking this season in hopes of landing a top-flight quarterback prospect, but what’s done is done.

At least there is a scintilla of intrigue still remaining with Mayfield, who has alternated good and bad seasons since entering the league. If that random pattern continues, this will be a good one!

Three Reasons For Optimism

Baker Mayfield’s Upside: The Panthers dealt a fifth-round pick to the Browns for Mayfield, a buy-low deal if there ever was one. The risk was negligible, so it’s easy to understand why a coach like Rhule, who could be on the hot seat, endorsed the move. Mayfield has already whizzed past Sam Darnold in the quarterback ‘competition,’ although that doesn’t tell us much. The real proof will come on game days, when Mayfield will aim to duplicate his 2020 success rather than last year’s implosion. The arm talent is there, and maybe Carolina can scheme well enough to put Mayfield in position to succeed. If the Panthers can accentuate his positives and decrease his tendency to make bad decisions, offensive improvement should be on the horizon.

The Return of Christian McCaffrey: The uber-talented running back has been besieged by injuries the past two seasons. The good news? It may have just been a string of bad luck, not predictive of more injuries. If McCaffrey can stay on the field, it changes the dynamic of the offense. A resurgent McCaffrey, a better quarterback situation, a pass-catching duo of Moore and Robbie Anderson, a revamped offensive line… there are reasons Panthers fans can be moderately excited for 2022.

The Defense: And on the other side of the ball there is similar intrigue. The Panthers have one of the youngest defenses in the NFL, and it’s a group that allowed the third-fewest yards per play in the league last year. The offense was so bad in 2021 that Carolina’s defense couldn’t hold up, but the talent is there. Brian Burns is an upper-tier pass-rusher while Derrick Brown has shown some flashes on the interior of the defensive line. Linebacker Shaq Thompson, cornerback Jaycee Horn and safety Jeremy Chinn are also playmakers. The loss of Hasson Reddick hurts, but Carolina has the personnel to be above average defensively. 

Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Panthers

Christian McCaffrey over 1,595.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115): McCaffrey has a tremendous offensive ceiling, as evidenced by his 2,392 yards from scrimmage in 2019, his last full season. Obviously this is a bet on health, and considering there has been some soft tissue stuff, it’s far from a guarantee. But we are at a buy-low point with McCaffrey, who certainly wouldn’t need to play all 17 games to reach this total. By all accounts, the Panthers are being very careful with McCaffrey this offseason and will do the same during in-season practices. But there is little doubt in my mind Carolina will still unleash its most dynamic player during games. And considering his elite ability in both the run and pass game, I think a big season awaits.

Brian Burns over 9.75 sacks (+100): The Burns breakout campaign is about to commence. He has quietly become one of the league’s best up-and-coming pass-rushers, but has yet to reach double digit sacks. Burns came close in each of the past two years, notching nine in each campaign. He is only 24 years old and has improved each year, and 10-plus seems on the docket this year. Hopefully for his and the bettors’ sake, Carolina is leading a fair number of games in the fourth quarter so he can pin the ears back and go quarterback hunting.

Baker Mayfield over 3,700.5 passing yards (-110): This is a pretty easy decision in my eyes. The oddsmakers seem to be hedging based on potential injuries and/or replacement during the season. Matt Corral was taken in the third round, but Carolina should be competitive enough to keep him on the sidelines, and a full-year Mayfield evaluation is just as important as getting Corral game reps. Mayfield surpassed this total in each of his first two seasons before falling short the past two years. However, Cleveland ran the ball a ton and was a good team in recent years. I think the Panthers will throw more, especially late when they are trailing in games, allowing Mayfield to rack up the yards. A 4,000-yard season wouldn’t surprise me, which gives this bet a lot of cushion.

If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish

Christian McCaffrey to win Comeback Player of the Year (+750): These odds actually aren’t super long, as McCaffrey has the third-best odds to claim the award. Titans running back Derrick Henry is the +400 favorite, while Saints quarterback Jameis Winston checks in at +550 odds.

This is good value for McCaffrey, as I’d wager on him over Henry at those prices. McCaffrey’s injuries have been big news, and he’s the type of player that is going to put up big numbers when healthy. Last year’s Comeback Player of the Year came down to Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott, but without an elite quarterback among this year’s contenders, McCaffrey is a solid choice.

OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism

The addition of Mayfield raises this team’s ceiling, but how high? The Panthers aren’t better than the Buccaneers, and they probably aren’t going to be better than the Saints, who have an elite defense.

Even though Carolina didn’t pay much for its new quarterback, it’s hard to figure out the long-term strategy beyond keeping Rhule employed. Even if the Panthers show incremental progress, they will have another quarterback decision to make next year because Mayfield is on an expiring contract.

Rhule showed promise his first season and Carolina seemed to be building slowly and smartly, but the Sam Darnold trade was terrible and it continues to feel like the Panthers are trying to convince themselves that a reclamation project can work under center when that is rarely the case.

The Encouraging Conclusion

The Panthers do have a sliver of hope this season, which was not the case before Mayfield arrived. Both sides of the ball have some playmakers, and a wild card berth is not inconceivable.

Ryan Tannehill is a quarterback who was written off by his first team before excelling in a new destination. While that is the exception rather than the norm, this is not a Darnold situation, where Carolina is bending reality in hopes of success. Mayfield can play above-average ball if everything is clicking.

If that happens in 2022, the trade will look prescient. If not, Rhule could be fired by midseason.

The Best Panthers Bet For 2022: Christian McCaffrey over 1,595.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)