Hope springs eternal for every fanbase this time of year, and who am I to rain on that parade?
It’s time for Optimist Alley, which focuses on the positive of all 32 NFL teams heading into the 2022 season — because there’s always a silver lining if you look closely enough.
Past Previews: ATL I CAR I CHI I DET I HOU I JAX I LV I MIA I NE I NYG I NYJ I PIT I SEA I WAS
Today’s Team: New Orleans Saints
Season Win Total: 8.5
Odds to Make Playoffs: Yes +125; No -155
Odds to Win Division: +300
Odds to Win Super Bowl: +4000
Sean Payton followed Drew Brees into retirement after last season, which officially signalled the start of a long-awaited rebuild in New Orleans.
Oh, wait. No it didn’t. Despite having one of the worst cap situations in football for the past few years, the Saints continue to soldier on, trying to win while absorbing some talent losses along the way.
The wild part? It’s easy to understand the rationale. Even though Brees, one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and Payton, a whiz of a coach, are gone, this is still a group teeming with potential.
The Saints are not the same as yesteryear, when a high-flying offense would run you out of the building. These days, they will shut you down.
Three Reasons For Optimism
The Defense: The Saints are projected to have the top-ranked defense in the NFL this season by Football Outsiders, and it’s easy to see why. Edge rushers Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, linebacker Demario Davis and cornerback Marshon Lattimore highlight the group of returners, while safety Tyrann Mathieu brings his ballhawking ways from Kansas City. The Saints traded safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to the Eagles on Tuesday but still have plenty of talent on that side of the ball.
Michael Thomas: The star wide receiver has been slowed by an ankle injury for the past two years, but looked good in training camp. He is currently dealing with a hamstring issue, but it doesn’t seem too serious. Thomas doesn’t have Brees any longer, but he is averaging 85 receiving yards per game in his career and is a dynamic weapon when healthy. New Orleans’ offense is not likely to be great this year, but a healthy Thomas is crucial for it to reach its ceiling. He will again be penciled in as the No. 1 receiver, while offseason additions Chris Olave and Jarvis Landy round out a much more potent receiving corps.
Jameis Winston: The veteran quarterback is never going to live up to his status as a former No. 1 overall pick, but there were some things to build on during his seven-game stint with the Saints last season. Winston’s yards-per-attempt figure of 7.3 was only slightly below his average in Tampa Bay, but his interception rate went way down and his touchdown rate way up. It seems unlikely Winston will be used as the same gunslinger as with the Bucs, but New Orleans was 5-2 with him as the starter before a torn ACL ended his season. Winston had a Total QBR of 64.4 last season, and duplicating that would put New Orleans in a good spot.
Three ‘Over’ Bets For The Saints
Saints over 8.5 wins (-110): New Orleans gets four games against the Panthers and Falcons, which will certainly help the over. The other games are pretty tough, but the Saints have the type of team that should be competitive against most foes on the schedule. The Saints have a playoff-caliber group and could reach double-digit wins this year when all is said and done. While Tampa Bay is the class of the division, the Saints are primed to make a wild card push in 2022, as the over is a good bet here.
S Tyrann Mathieu over 2.5 interceptions (-125): The Honey Badger is on to his fourth NFL team, but wherever he’s been, he makes plays. Mathieu has a preternatural ability to diagnose plays before they happen, giving him an early jump on getting to the right spot. He also has great hands, which is a must for this prop bet. Mathieu had 13 interceptions in his three seasons with the Chiefs and will now join a New Orleans defense that will give him ample ability to grab at least three in 2022.
Saints over 395.5 regular season points (+100): This comes out to 23.3 points per game through a 17-game schedule. New Orleans only scored 364 points last season, but much of that was due to erratic quarterback play once Winston went down. When he was in the lineup, the Saints averaged 25.1 points per contest. This season, Thomas looks healthy while New Orleans has also added Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to the receiving corps. At +100 these are nice odds.
If You’re Feeling Very, Very Bullish
Dennis Allen for Coach of the Year (+3000): The Saints are a talented group that is capable of winning 11 games if all goes well. The narrative is set for Allen, as he takes over for Payton in New Orleans. These are among the longest odds to win Coach of the Year, which I don’t understand. New Orleans is not favored to overtake the Buccaneers for the NFC South crown, but it’s not impossible. If Allen can direct his team to something like that, he will be in the conversation. The 30/1 odds are well worth a flier.
OK, A Small Dose Of Pessimism
Winston has been erratic throughout his career, with an interception rate of 3.3 that is way too high for a starting quarterback. He’s also coming off a major knee injury, and it’s hard to know how it will affect him physically or mentally.
Thomas is also an unknown after such a long layoff due to injury, and star running back Alvin Kamara is in some legal trouble that could result in a suspension at some point.
The Saints’ offense is projected to be slightly below average by Football Outsiders, but there is more downside than that if Winston turns the ball over at a high rate. He has a career passer rating of 87.8, and a similar output this year will eat into New Orleans’ shot at being a true contender.
The trade of Gardner-Johnson is also the latest reminder that New Orleans is perennially tight against the cap, which takes away flexibility.
The Encouraging Conclusion
Even though Winston has been a turnover machine throughout his career, that has not been the case in New Orleans. It is a different brand of football being asked of him, and if Winston can manage to combine his ability to push the ball downfield without making back-breaking turnovers, the Saints could really be on to something.
New Orleans has the luxury of playing in the weaker conference and in a weak division. Look for the Saints to take advantage of that and make a playoff push. The defense is going to be stout, and if the passing game clicks, New Orleans has the capability to be a darkhorse contender in the NFC.
The Best Saints Bet For 2022: Saints to make playoffs (+125)
