The major moves of the offseason have wrapped up, as NFL teams are now focusing on offseason talent evaluation of their rosters.
Super Bowl futures odds have been out for months, and now I’ll take a stab at ranking the teams from 1 to 32.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under Win Total: 11.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +1200 at DraftKings
The Bengals walloped the Bills in the playoffs, then were a late hit away from forcing overtime against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. This is still an ascending team that brings back nearly everyone of consequence from 2022 and added standout left tackle Orlando Brown to protect Joe Burrow. Cincy was No. 5 in Team DVOA last season and I think there is another gear that can be reached in 2023.
2. Buffalo Bills
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +900 at FanDuel
The Bills are in a tough division alongside the Dolphins and Jets, which may suppress the regular season win total. But this team finished No. 1 in DVOA a season ago and still has the core returning in 2023. Quarterback Josh Allen is a star, and if Von Miller can get back to form by the postseason, the Bills should be right in the mix to claim a championship.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under Win Total: 11.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +650 at BetMGM
The Chiefs head into the season as favorites to repeat, and it’s hard to argue based on Patrick Mahomes’ track record. The things that give me pause: the loss of Brown and Travis Kelce entering his age-34 season. Mahomes wasn’t fazed by the departure of Tyreek Hill, but if Kelce begins to show his age this season, the offense will still be good, but maybe not quite as dominant.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under Win Total: 10.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +1000 at BetRivers
We don’t know who will be the quarterback to start the season in San Francisco. That’s normally a humongous problem, but the roster is so deep and talented that it won’t matter. The 49ers are almost certainly going to win the NFC West, and the key is having Brock Purdy (or Trey Lance or Sam Darnold or a back-from-retirement Tom Brady) optimized for the playoffs. The addition of Christian McCaffrey supercharged the offense, and San Francisco should be able to pile up the wins in 2023.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under Win Total: 11
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +850 at FanDuel
There is no questioning the talent on this roster. The Eagles have an abundance of it everywhere and will be a very good team. Can they win the Super Bowl? It all comes down to Jalen Hurts and his ability to duplicate last year’s campaign. The supporting cast will give him every chance to do so, but the leap in production was so vast that I can’t help but wonder if some regression is coming in 2023.
6. Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under Win Total: 10
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +2500 at Caesars
Lamar Jackson is back, and any time he’s healthy this team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The division and the conference are tough, but Baltimore’s addition of Odell Beckham, Jr. could be a big help on offense. I’m buying the Ravens’ stock.
7. Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +3000 at BetMGM
This is my favorite value currently on the board. Justin Herbert’s yards per attempt and touchdown percentage took a dive in Year 3, but that was in large part due to some major injuries on offense. The defense also missed some key players for stretches. Herbert is just as talented as some of the other top signal-callers in the AFC and may benefit from having Kellen Moore as his new offensive coordinator.
8. Miami Dolphins
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +3000 at Caesars
The Dolphins finished No. 7 in offensive DVOA a season ago despite the concussions that Tua Tagovailoa dealt with. Miami might not be as deep as other teams in the conference, but the elite star power of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on offense, along with Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey on defense, could equate to a serious run this fall.
9. Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under Win Total: 10
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +1600 at BetMGM
The Cowboys are going to be a good team again in 2023. Can they make the leap to greatness? The defense finished No. 2 in efficiency last season and I have a hard time seeing that duplicated, so much of this will be on the shoulders of Dak Prescott. He needs to have an elite season to put Dallas into the 49ers/Eagles tier in the NFC.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under Win Total: 10
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +2800 at BetMGM
Trevor Lawrence made a big-time leap in his second season, and Year 3 with a star rookie QB is often fruitful for teams. The Jaguars certainly look like the best team in the woeful AFC South but it’s a large leap to become a legitimate contender. I think Jacksonville could sparkle in the regular season but don’t see it as a bonafide title aspirant this year.
11. New York Jets
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +1800 at DraftKings
This is a team I am fading in 2023. The defense is legit but I’m not sold that a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers can step in and find greatness immediately. There is a lot of hype around this team but I have them as the third-best in the AFC East until Rodgers can prove 2022 was an aberration.
12. Cleveland Browns
Over/Under Win Total: 9
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +4000 at DraftKings
The Browns have a good roster and really need to make a big move this season. Deshaun Watson was dreadful last season in his six-game stint with Cleveland, but has a strong track record previously. If he struggles moving forward, this will go down as one of the worst acquisitions in NFL history.
13. Detroit Lions
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +2500 at Caesars
There is a lot to like about Detroit’s trajectory, and it does look like the team to beat in the NFC North heading into the season. Why aren’t they higher in my rankings? Jared Goff is a solid quarterback, but I don’t think he’s a star, and some regression could await in 2023.
14. Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under Win Total: 9
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +5000 at Caesars
The Seahawks shocked the NFL by making the playoffs a season ago. The roster has been upgraded this offseason, and if Geno Smith can duplicate his success from 2022, this team could be a sneaky contender in the NFC.
15. New Orleans Saints
Over/Under Win Total: 9.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +4000 at BetMGM
The Saints have a good defense and play in a terrible division. That gives them an early leg up, but the ceiling will be determined by the play of new quarterback Derek Carr. New Orleans doesn’t have Super Bowl upside but a postseason win is possible.
16. Denver Broncos
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +4500 at FanDuel
Huge year for Russell Wilson, who will either return to the form he showed all those years in Seattle or become a contract albatross in Denver. The hiring of Sean Payton was huge, and the owners have deep pockets, so this is a team that can ascend if Wilson figures it out.
17. Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +5000 at BetMGM
The Vikings overachieved throughout 2022 but were exposed in the playoffs. Kirk Cousins is back as the quarterback and it feels like Minnesota is destined for NFL mediocrity this year.
18. Chicago Bears
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6000 at BetRivers
The Bears finished with the worst record in the NFL in 2022, but some of that was by design. They sold off defensive parts to add draft capital, then traded down from the No. 1 pick to add more (plus D.J. Moore). This is a big season for Justin Fields to prove he’s a no-doubt franchise guy, and Chicago now has the pieces around him to help him succeed.
19. New York Giants
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6500 at DraftKings
The Giants won a playoff game last season and then made sure to bring back quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley. Darren Waller was a major offseason addition, and if the young offensive line makes more strides in 2023, there is reason for optimism. But I’m still wary of last year’s Team DVOA of No. 21 in the NFL. If the close-game luck doesn’t appear this season, the Giants may take a frustrating step back.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6000 at BetMGM
The Steelers will have a ferocious pass-rush once again, and if Kenny Pickett turns the corner in Year 2, Pittsburgh could surprise. But the Steelers are in a tough division and the offensive question marks are too large.
21. Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under Win Total: 8.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +7000 at DraftKings
Can the Falcons be 49ers-lite over in Atlanta? Desmond Ridder doesn’t look like he will even be average in 2023, but the Falcons sure made strides in upgrading a lot of areas around him. The division is bad, but I don’t think Atlanta will be able to overcome quarterback woes.
22. Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +10000 at Caesars
I’m higher on Indianapolis than most. Despite the disastrous showing last year, there are still some good pieces, and Anthony Richardson’s rushing ability could give him a decent floor as he learns the NFL game. I could see a run-heavy offense finding some success in 2023.
23. Green Bay Packers
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6600 at BetRivers
The Aaron Rodgers era has ended. Is Jordan Love up to the challenge? I’m skeptical until he proves it, although the overall roster is better than this ranking suggests.
24. Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6600 at BetMGM
The Rams stripped away a bunch of useful parts this offseason, but they still have one of the best coaches in the NFL and the trio of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. That might be enough to grab seven or so victories.
25. New England Patriots
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6500 at DraftKings
They will be well-coached and the defense is solid, but where is the upside on offense? Mac Jones seems to have regressed.
26. Las Vegas Raiders
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +6600 at BetMGM
The Raiders tried to keep up with the Joneses last offseason by adding expensive pieces like Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. It didn’t work, and now the future looks bleak.
27. Carolina Panthers
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +7500 at DraftKings
The Panthers got their man in the draft, and play in a terrible division. Bryce Young seems like the most pro-ready among the quarterbacks and may have some solid games, but it’s still an uphill battle for every rookie.
28. Washington Commanders
Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +8000 at Caesars
The Commanders could win seven or eight games because Jacoby Brissett is a decent veteran quarterback, but there’s no real Super Bowl upside with this group.
29. Tennessee Titans
Over/Under Win Total: 7.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +12500 at Caesars
The presence of Ryan Tannehill boosts the short-term ability of Tennessee, but there is a shocking lack of weapons on offense outside of Derrick Henry, and the defense isn’t good enough to carry the team. Things could get ugly late if the Titans switch to Will Levis at quarterback.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under Win Total: 6.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +10000 at BetMGM
The Bucs still have quite a few good players on their roster, so there is definitely a way for them to finish near .500 in 2023. But Baker Mayfield is a below average quarterback that must play better than he’s shown of late, and that’s a reach.
31. Houston Texans
Over/Under Win Total: 5.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +20000 at DraftKings
The roster is better than last year but that’s not saying a whole lot. Best-case scenario is an improved defense and a run-first offense that succeeds behind a good offensive line, but there is a major lack of upside. C.J. Stroud will need time to acclimate to the NFL, which will keep the wins to a minimum.
32. Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under Win Total: 4.5
Best Value Super Bowl Odds: +20000 at BetMGM
I agree with the oddsmakers on this one. Arizona is expected to roll out Colt McCoy, or David Blough, or Clayton Tune for the first portion of the season until Kyler Murray returns from a torn ACL. The defense, meanwhile, only has two starters that are comfortably above average in talent level — Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson — and Baker wants to be traded. The only way to see this with a glass-half-full perspective is to look past 2023 and on to 2024, because Arizona owns the first-round picks of the bottom-two teams in these power rankings.
