It’s a three-way race to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, and a slight favorite has emerged.
Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud has odds of +190 to be the first player chosen, per FanDuel on November 16. Those odds outpace Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson, who are listed at +250 apiece.
Stroud is the current front-runner to win the Heisman Trophy and has been side-by-side with Young atop this class for several months. While much will be decided once the two quarterbacks work out and talk with teams, Stroud has gained traction as the projected top selection.
Anderson is seen as a generational pass-rusher, and he almost certainly would have gone No. 1 in the 2022 draft. However, it’s a quarterback league and it would be a pretty big surprise if Anderson went ahead of the two signal-callers.
Much of it could depend on the draft order. Here is a look at the teams currently projected to finish with a top-5 selection, with a prediction on which player they would take.
1. Houston Texans (1-7-1)
Odds to land No. 1 pick, via Football Outsiders: 42.3%
The No. 1 overall selection is Houston’s to lose. The Texans have the worst record in the NFL and the second-worst point-differential. They have a gaping hole at quarterback, as Davis Mills does not look like the answer. If this holds, it would be a shock if the Texans didn’t choose a quarterback.
Projected decision: Draft C.J. Stroud
2. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 16.3%
The Raiders have been among the biggest disappointments in the NFL. They have lost a lot of close games and are nowhere near the playoff hunt despite aggressively adding Davante Adams and Chandler Jones this offseason.
This roster is built to compete right now, so if Las Vegas finished with the No. 1 overall pick, it would be full of intrigue. The Raiders could decide to move Derek Carr and take one of the quarterbacks, choose Will Anderson to bolster the pass-rush or trade down and accumulate extra assets.
Projected decision: Trade down
3. Carolina Panthers (3-7)
Odds to land No. 1 pick: 15.6%
The Panthers have fired their coach and offloaded key players this year, making it clear they are in the midst of another large-scale rebuild. The best way to accelerate the timeline is by finding a quarterback in the draft.
Carolina desperately needs to finish with a top-2 selection, and if that happens, there is little doubt it chooses one of the quarterbacks. If the Panthers end up with the first overall pick, they will have their choice.
Projected decision: Draft C.J. Stroud
4. Philadelphia Eagles via New Orleans Saints (3-7)
Odds to land the No. 1 pick: 3.5%
The Saints aren’t likely to finish with the first pick, but if it happens, this would be unfair. Philadelphia already has a roster so loaded that it is on the short-list of Super Bowl favorites.
New Orleans traded this pick before the draft, and considering Jalen Hurts looks like an MVP candidate, the Eagles could trade down and try to set up a dynasty over the next few years.
Projected decision: Trade down
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Odds to land the No. 1 pick: 5.5%
If there is one team that could realistically stay at No. 1 and not take a quarterback, it could be the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s record is not very good this season, but the team has a point-differential of plus-11, which could portend brighter days ahead.
Jacksonville has its quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, and Year 3 of a signal-caller’s rookie deal is often the time when an organization will push hard to contend. The Jaguars drafted Travon Walker No. 1 overall last season and also have Josh Allen, but if they think Anderson is a game-changer, he could be the choice.
They could also trade down and add an offensive piece while also accumulating more draft capital.
Projected decision: Draft Will Anderson
Here are the full odds to go No. 1 overall in the draft, courtesy of FanDuel:
- C.J. Stroud +190
- Bryce Young +250
- Will Anderson +250
- Will Levis +1400
- Hendon Hooker +1800
- Jalen Carter +2500
- Paris Johnson +2500
- Peter Skoronski +3000
- Bryan Bresee +4000
- Justin Flowe +4000
- Eli Ricks +4100
- Myles Murphy +5000
- Nolan Smith +6000
- Kelee Ringo +8000
- Josh Downs +8000
- Jaren Hall +8000
- Phil Jurkovec +8000
- Tanner McKee +8000
- Anthony Richardson +8000
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba +10000
- Bijan Robinson +10000
- Ryan Hayes +10000
- Michael Mayer +10000
- Brandon Joseph +10000
- Malik Cunningham +10000
- Devin Leary +10000
- Tyler Van Dyke +13000
- Kayshoun Boutte +13000
- Kedon Slovis +13000
- Spencer Rattler +15000
