Super Bowl berths are on the line when the AFC and NFC Championship Games take place on Sunday. While there will be plenty of NFL betting on the Chiefs-Bengals and 49ers-Rams spreads, there are also a plethora of prop bets to consider.
Here are my favorite three of the week. Odds courtesy of DraftKings on Friday, January 28.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow (-130) over 24.5 completions
The over is the favorite in this one but even at -130, it’s too hard to stay away. The Bengals are seven-point underdogs in the game and are facing off against Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs offense. Cincinnati will need to throw the ball effectively to keep pace, so Burrow is going to be front and center in this one.
In the regular season meeting between these teams, he completed 30-of-39 passes for 446 yards and four touchdowns. Even if the yards per attempt isn’t as prolific this time around, he should still be able to cruise past 24 completions. Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage at 70.4 in the regular season, and if he comes anywhere close to that, the over should hit on this prop relatively easily.
Joe Burrow led all NFL starters in completion percentage (70%) during the regular season.
Road gets tougher in the playoffs, but his completion percentages so far:
Wild Card vs Raiders: 71%
Divisional vs Titans: 76%Chiefs up next. He had a 77% day vs. KC earlier this month.
— Shea Dixon (@Sheadixon) January 25, 2022
Burrow will take his shots down the field, but he will also need to throw underneath regularly if the Chiefs try to take away the big play. With Cincinnati projected to throw often in this one, Burrow should have no trouble reaching 25 completions.
49ers WR Deebo Samuel (-115) over 39.5 rushing yards
It’s not every day that a wide receiver has a rushing yardage total such as this, but coach Kyle Shanahan has used Samuel in the backfield consistently since mid-November. Even though Elijah Mitchell is expected to get the majority of the carries, Samuel will likely see regular rushing attempts in this matchup.
He is one of the most explosive players in the NFL, so a yards-per-carry average of 5.0 is doable, which means eight or so carries would be needed to hit the over on this prop. Samuel could be guarded by Jalen Ramsey when lining up at receiver, which could limit his touches. Therefore, Shanahan may decide to use Samuel at running back to guarantee his most explosive offensive player a chance at myriad opportunities to have the ball in his hand.
Deebo Samuel in the playoffs:
* 25 snaps as RB, 57 as WR
* 30% of the RB carries
* Meager 15.9% target share— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 24, 2022
The Los Angeles defense is not great against the run and the 49ers don’t want Jimmy Garoppolo throwing the ball too often. All of this evidence adds up to 40 or more rushing yards for Samuel on Sunday.
49ers TE George Kittle (-120) over 52.5 receiving yards
If Ramsey is on Samuel for much of this contest and Los Angeles plays two deep safeties the majority of the time, it could open up the field for Kittle. He generally does his damage in the middle of the field, and it’s the area Garoppolo likes to throw into. Los Angeles does not do a great job stopping teams in that area, so it could lead to a big game for Kittle.
He had seven targets and five receptions in each of the two regular season games between these teams. Kittle only had 60 total yards on those 10 receptions, but he is a dynamic yards-after-the-catch player, and his skillset and history must be considered heading into this game.
If Kittle can break a few tackles, he should be able to rack up some big gains and reach 53 receiving yards in this showdown. Even though Garoppolo isn’t expected to throw the ball a bunch, Kittle may very well be his most popular target against the Rams.
