Sean Payton is the crown jewel of this year’s coaching cycle, as the former Saints’ head man is looking to get back into the NFL after a year as a television analyst.
Payton is expected to command a big salary and may want control of personnel decisions. The team that hires him would also need to work out trade compensation with New Orleans because Payton is still under contract.
It’s a complicated situation, but Payton seems likely to end up somewhere new for 2023. The question: Where will that be?
Here is a look at Payton’s odds to be the next head coach at four of the five current openings, according to DraftKings on January 10. There are no odds currently available for the Houston Texans, though Payton has not been connected to that job.
This also doesn’t include the Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys or Los Angeles Rams, all of which would seem to be prime Payton destinations if their head coaching position becomes available.
Carolina Panthers’ Odds to Hire Sean Payton: +2000
The Panthers have an owner with a lot of money, and David Tepper is reportedly looking closely at offensive minds as he looks for a Matt Rhule replacement. However, DraftKings does not believe Payton will end up in Carolina, as he has only the 10th-best odds among the candidates.
Interim coach Steve Wilks is the favorite to land the job at +350 odds, followed by Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen at +400 odds and former Colts and Lions coach Jim Caldwell at +500.
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, former Colts coach Frank Reich, Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier and 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans all have better odds than Payton to be the next coach of the Panthers.
Indianapolis Colts’ Odds to Hire Sean Payton: +1000
Indy is almost certainly going to move on from interim coach Jeff Saturday, and while the odds are better than Carolina, Payton is still a longshot to land with the Colts.
Harbaugh is listed as the favorite at +350 odds, followed by Quinn at +600, Ben Johnson at +650 and Aaron Glenn at +750.
Frazier, Ryans, Steichen, Saturday and Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris have the same +1000 odds as Payton to get the Colts gig. If the Colts land a big-name former head coach, it figures to be Harbaugh and not Payton.
Denver Broncos’ Odds to Hire Sean Payton: +350
It’s getting interesting now. Payton has already spoken to the new ownership in Denver, and money would not be an issue.
However, from a competitive standpoint, the Broncos just suffered through a disastrous first season with Russell Wilson. He is signed to a lucrative long-term deal and the Broncos dealt multiple draft picks and players to acquire him, so the outlook is not great.
Payton has the third-best odds to become the coach of the Broncos, behind only Quinn (+225) and Harbaugh (+330). The Broncos already have general manager George Paton in place, so another hurdle would be figuring out who has control of the roster if Payton does sign on.
Arizona Cardinals’ Odds to Hire Sean Payton: +200
The Cardinals look like the front-runner to hire Payton at this stage in the game. He is the clear favorite, as Steichen’s +750 odds are second-best but far behind Payton.
The line has moved since Tuesday morning, when Payton was originally listed at +250 odds to become the next head coach of the Cardinals. Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is also an option at +800 odds, but the Payton possibility makes sense.
There is no GM in place, which means owner Michael Bidwill could give Payton control of the roster without any debate. Bidwill also just swallowed a big financial pill by firing Kliff Kingsbury 10 months into a five-year extension, which may be a sign he is willing to spend big on Payton.
Payton has also had success with a shorter quarterback, as Drew Brees was a Hall of Fame-caliber signal-caller when they were paired up together in New Orleans. Even though Kyler Murray is coming off a torn ACL, he gives Arizona the most attractive quarterback situation among the four openings.
If the Cowboys or Chargers fire their coach, the calculus could change, but as it stands, the Cardinals are in the catbird seat to hire Payton in the coming weeks.
