Bad news: Back-to-back losing weeks.
Good news: Still nine games over .500 for the season.
Time to pad the record in Week 7 with some elite NFL picks against the spread. Odds courtesy of BetMGM on October 19th.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Thursday, October 19th, 2023
Trevor Lawrence is expected to play tonight and obviously that is a huge deal. So is the issues the Saints are having at offensive tackle.
The Jaguars have the better quarterback and if they can get pressure on Derek Carr, the defense will make some plays.
I’ll take the points here and would be jumping on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Jaguars 23, Saints 17
Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
I’m not very high on the Raiders this year but I’m not really ready to hitch my wagon to Bears backup quarterback Tyson Bagent of Shepherd College fame.
The Raiders won’t have Jimmy Garoppolo in this game, but their backups Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell inspire a bit more confidence.
Score prediction: Raiders 17, Bears 13
Pick: Raiders -3
Cleveland Browns (-3) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
The Browns’ defense is playing at a historic level right now, and gets a matchup against backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, who threw three interceptions last time out.
Deshaun Watson’s status is still a bit up in the air but he has returned to practice. That gives us some upside on Cleveland, and even without it I like the Browns to bully the Indy offense.
Score prediction: Browns 20, Colts 13
Pick: Browns -3
Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
Are the Bills good or not? They are an enigma, which is frustrating, but the Patriots are just plain horrible.
Mac Jones has struggled mightily this season and now faces an elite defense.
Josh Allen, please get your act together in this one.
Score prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 16
Pick: Bills -8.5
Washington Commanders (-3) at New York Giants
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
The tea leaves suggest it will be Tyrod Taylor starting again for the Giants, which is fine. He’s a solid enough quarterback and his mobility helps since the offensive line is a mess.
The Giants hung tough last week against the Bills and I actually think they pull the upset here at home.
Score prediction: Giants 17, Commanders 16
Pick: Giants +3
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
The Buccaneers are basically a perfectly-mediocre football team. Slightly above average on defense and slightly below on offense.
The Falcons are worse than that, and between the strength of the team and the home field, plus the spread not getting to three points, this is an easy call.
Score prediction: Buccaneers 21, Falcons 16
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
Fun matchup here. The Lions are getting a lot of hype right now but I’m impressed by Baltimore.
The Ravens are at home and have a quarterback that may give the Lions a lot of trouble. Jared Goff has been awesome this season but I expect a step back here against a very good defense.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Lions 20
Pick: Ravens -3
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
I’m surprised this spread is so low. I am not buying the Steelers whatsoever, despite their lucky start to the season. A negative-31 point-differential tells me more than a 3-2 record.
Plus, the Rams look quite solid with Matthew Stafford playing at a high level.
Score prediction: Rams 24, Steelers 16
Pick: Rams -3
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
I’m 5-1 against the spread on Cardinals games this year and I’ve been pretty convicted on all the picks, even with the Cowboys choice being very wrong.
This one is tough, though. I like the Seahawks more than the average person, but the spread makes me wary because a touchdown margin gives Arizona the cover.
In the end, I think the Seattle passing game gets back on track and the Seahawks claim a win that also covers the spread.
Score prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17
Pick: Seahawks -7.5
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
The numbers don’t really back this but for some reason I like the Broncos this week. The defense wasn’t dominated in Kansas City and Russell Wilson should be able to bounce back and have a decent game.
The Packers are a tick below average and the home field advantage means something.
Score prediction: Broncos 24, Packers 21
Pick: Broncos +1
Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
The Chiefs are top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA on the season but still aren’t the same dominant group as years past.
The Chargers boast a top-10 offense and Justin Herbert should bounce back from his poor showing against the Cowboys.
I like this spread because a lot of games end with margins of three or four points, and the Chargers are good enough to stay close.
Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24
Pick: Chargers +5.5
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023
What a treat for Sunday Night Football. I think both offenses will move the ball with ease in this game.
The Eagles have a solid defense but much of that is predicated on stopping the run and getting pressure. The Dolphins are in such a groove that they should be able to combat that.
Philly is a good team again this year, I’m just not sure if they are great. I think part of this line stems from Miami’s struggles against the Bills but I’ll happily take the underdog.
Score prediction: Dolphins 30, Eagles 27
Pick: Dolphins +2.5
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Monday, October 23rd, 2023
The 49ers have some key injuries, with running back Christian McCaffrey, left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel all in doubt for Monday night.
The Vikings are without Justin Jefferson, of course, but it feels like Minnesota should be able to hang around in this one at home.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 21
Pick: Vikings +6.5
Last Week: 7-8
Overall Record: 50-41-2
