The last time we saw Odell Beckham in an NFL game, he caught a touchdown in the Super Bowl and then tore his ACL.
That was February 13, 2022, and the standout wide receiver proceeded to miss all of last season while recuperating.
The Baltimore Ravens seem convinced Beckham can return to his past form, as they gave him a one-year, $15 million contract in April to become one of Lamar Jackson’s main targets.
Beckham is 30 years old and on the back half of his career, so hopes of a 1,000-yard season, especially in a run-heavy offense, seem dubious.
But DraftKings has unveiled its receiving yardage total for Beckham in 2023, and it’s much more pessimistic than that.
Beckham’s receiving yardage over/under this season? A paltry 575.5 yards.
Which side of the bet should you be on? Let’s take a look at each side of the coin before coming to our conclusion.
Why Odell Beckham Jr. Will Go Over 575.5 Receiving Yards in 2023
First and foremost, let’s acknowledge the talent. Beckham was one of the best receivers in the NFL during his prime and has averaged an impressive 76.7 receiving yards per game during his career.
Run-heavy offense or not, if he suits up for all 17 games in 2023, the over is a virtual certainty. He would need to average only 33.9 receiving yards per game to get there, a number Beckham has cleared in every season of his career.
Even when we toss in a missed game or two or three, the receiving yardage total is eminently attainable. Take a look:
- 16-game average to reach 576: 36
- 15-game average to reach 576: 38.4
- 14-game average to reach 576: 41.1
- 13-game average to reach 576: 44.3
Beckham is not expected to be the No. 1 target of Lamar Jackson; that honor will be bestowed upon star tight end Mark Andrews. He will also have competition in the wide receiver room from Rashod Bateman and rookie Zay Flowers.
But the size of the contract proves that Baltimore has every intention of making Beckham a key piece of the offense. Jackson just signed a lucrative extension, so lowering wear-and-tear on his body could be a point of emphasis this year and beyond.
That would mean more passing, which would give Beckham more opportunities. When he is on the field, there seems little doubt Beckham will be peppered with chances to rack up receiving yardage.
And any time he has a blow-out game of like 70 or 80 yards, it cuts out a huge chunk of yardage needed for the over to hit.
My last point is this: Beckham’s numbers may look worrisome over the past couple years, but the proof was in the pudding during that Super Bowl run with the Rams.
Beckham accumulated 21 catches for 288 yards and two touchdowns in three-and-a-half playoff games, and showed the ability to separate from defenders just like he’d done during his prime.
He was 29 years old at that point, and it’s doubtful Father Time has made a huge run at him in the year-and-a-half since.
Why Odell Beckham, Jr. Will Go Under 575.5 Receiving Yards in 2023
Unfortunately for wide receivers, a cliff can show up when their 30s arrive, especially for those with a history of injuries.
Julio Jones was a dominant force for the Atlanta Falcons through age-31, but has been a shell of himself the past two years with the Titans and Buccaneers.
A.J. Green never reached 850 receiving yards in a season after age-29. Andre Johnson fell off after age-32. Dez Bryant’s last dominant season came at age-26.
When will Beckham’s major decline phase begin – or has it already started? Beckham averaged only 38.4 receiving yards per game while splitting time between the Browns and Rams in 2021.
As mentioned, he was awesome in the playoffs, but Matthew Stafford was dealing that year, and Cooper Kupp was taking a bunch of focus from opposing defenses.
Not only could Beckham be in decline, but he’s coming off a major knee injury that sidelined him all of 2022. There has been ample time to recuperate, but some players never return to past form after an ACL, and it’s now the second time he tore the ACL in his left knee.
I’m pretty confident Beckham will average more than 40 receiving yards per game when suited up, but there is a realistic shot that another injury flares up. If he misses substantial time, it will need to be turn-back-the-clock OBJ on the field for the over to hit.
CONCLUSION
The drawbacks are real, but I keep going back to the $15 million figure the Ravens gave Beckham. This is one of the smartest organizations in the NFL, and even if it was an admitted overpay, it’s clear that Baltimore believes in the talent.
Beckham may no longer be a true No. 1 receiver, but he doesn’t need to be close to that for this wager to hit. Jackson’s recent injury history is a slight concern, because the passing game would take a hit with Tyler Huntley under center.
All that being said, this total feels much too low. Beckham should be able to reach 700 yards in even a pedestrian year, and the over/under gives us a lot of runway.
PREDICTION: Odell Beckham, Jr. over 575.5 receiving yards in 2023 at DraftKings
