Next in Line: An MLB Hall of Fame Candidate From Each Team

For baseball fans, there’s nothing like a good, hearty Hall of Fame debate. Who is the best of the best? Who should be in? Who shouldn’t be in? Who could have gotten in with a little better fortune?

And with the Class of 2022 — headlined by former Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz — scheduled to be inducted Sunday afternoon in Cooperstown, N.Y., there’s no better time than now to wonder which active players could one day join him in baseball immortality. Here’s our guess at 28 players — one from every team but two— who have the best chances at earning enshrinement. Some are sure things, some are on their way and some are long shots.

Agree or, better yet, disagree? Drop me a line at @jerrybeach73. Now let’s get to debating!

SURE THINGS

Each of these eight stars can start writing their Hall of Fame speeches. For three of them, the biggest challenge between now and then will be figuring out which hat to wear on their plaque.

Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, 1B

Here is the entire list of players to hit .300 with 500 homers and 3,000 hits: Henry Aaron, Willie Mays, Miguel Cabrera. Among that elite trio, Cabrera is the only one to win two MVPs and the Triple Crown. They couldn’t break through in a pair of World Series appearances, but that trade with the Florida Marlins worked out pretty well for the Tigers.

Royals: Zack Greinke, P

As someone who won one Cy Young, never had a 20-win season and led his league in a pitching Triple Crown category just twice (ERA in the AL in 2009 and in the NL in 2015), Greinke would have been a classic one-and-done candidate in an earlier era. But in an era in which the starting pitcher has been diminished, the totality of his resume — 222 wins, a 3.44 ERA, 2,851 strikeouts in 3187 2/3 innings and a WAR of 74.8 — leaves little doubt. The iconoclastic and reticent Greinke might not wear a hat on his plaque and might produce the shortest Hall of Fame speech ever, but he’s going to be enshrined.

Astros: Justin Verlander, P

As someone who spent most of his career with the Tigers, Verlander is probably not the best bet to represent the Astros in the Hall of Fame. Jose Altuve is on the Hall of Fame fast track and likely to wear the Houston uniform for his entire career while Alex Bregman is just 28 and constructing an impressive Cooperstown case. But with two Cy Youngs, two no-hitters, an MVP and a World Series ring in his possession, Verlander was a lock before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2020. At age 39, he’s as good as ever (12-3 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.88 WHIP) and has spoken openly of pursuing 300 wins (he’s 62 shy). It will be fun to watch him delay his enshrinement by mounting that chase.

Angels: Mike Trout, OF

Trout, who is 30 years old but leads active players in OPS, ranks second in WAR at 79.9, and is the only player with 300 homers and 200 stolen bases, is a no-duh selection on a team that features the best two-way player since Babe Ruth. What else can you say other than for the love of all that is holy, Angels management, figure out a way to build a title contender around Trout and Shohei Ohtani while they (and we) are still young?

Mets: Max Scherzer, P

From 2010 through 2014, the Tigers had THREE future first-ballot Hall of Famers in Cabrera, Verlander and Scherzer and didn’t win the World Series. Life is cruel and unfair. With three Cy Youngs, 196 wins, more than 3,000 strikeouts, two no-hitters and a handful of iconic moments on the October stage, Scherzer is the only pitcher who can compete with Verlander as the most complete starter of his generation. He will be the first player to wear a Nationals hat on his Hall of Fame plaque…unless he pulls a Nolan Ryan for the Mets in the home stretch. Would you bet against that?

Cardinals: Albert Pujols, 1B

No duh, part two. An extended sunset phase has dropped Pujols’ career average under .300 and dropped him under 100.0 WAR, but with the third-most RBIs (2,170), fifth-most homers (685) and 10th-most hits (3,333) of all-time, he’s done things we’ll never see again and should join Mariano Rivera as a unanimous inductee in 2027. Pujols might just be the first of a wave of Cardinals, with Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado all completing or building their resumes.

Reds: Joey Votto, 1B

The greatest hitting savant of his generation has led the NL in on-base percentage seven times, a total matched or exceeded only by Ted Williams (12), Barry Bonds (10), Babe Ruth (10), Rogers Hornsby (nine) and Ty Cobb (seven). That’s good company. He’s also batted at least .300 six times, won one MVP and placed in the top 10 five other times. And if his hilarious Twitter account is any indication, we can look forward to a great speech!

How hitting feels sometimes. That’s Lucy reading your stats to you. pic.twitter.com/w9Jj6ydLck

— Joey Votto (@JoeyVotto) April 29, 2022

Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, P

As last season ended, there was a non-zero chance this season would have marked the start of Kershaw’s countdown to Cooperstown, But a winter of rest seems to have healed Kershaw’s elbow and he’s put together a throwback season by going 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and becoming the first pitcher ever to open two starts with seven perfect innings in the same season. He’s done as a workhorse, but the bolstering of the resume — which includes the lowest ERA (2.48) and WHIP (1.00) of any starter to debut after World War II — is not.

ON THE RIGHT TRACK

Of these six players, five are roughly halfway to the Hall of Fame and young enough to endure some hiccups that won’t completely derail their candidacies. The sixth has a lot longer to go, but you’ll see why we included him.

Yankees: Aaron Judge, OF

Due to a late-ish start (he was 25 upon winning the AL Rookie of the Year in 2017) and injury-plagued seasons from 2018 through 2020, Judge (191 homers, 436 RBIs and 667 hits) has some ground to make up in the big number categories as well as in WAR (30.7). One way of doing that: Hitting 50-plus homers in a season. Judge is in the midst of one of the great where-were-you-when seasons — and great contract drives — of all-time, and he might be doing it in his final few months with the Yankees. It’s a strange world in which we’re wondering if a born-and-bred Yankees superstar is going to go into Cooperstown wearing the interlocking NY, but hey, it’s 2022. Wherever he ends up, Judge’s Hall of Fame hopes hinge on the first six seasons or so of his nine-year deal to go like the three peak seasons he’s produced thus far. 

Twins: Carlos Correa, SS

Despite having just two 140-game seasons on his resume and with more than two months to go in his age-27 season — he turns 28 on Sept. 22 — Correa already has more WAR through age-27 (36.4) than Hall of Fame shortstops Derek Jeter, Ernie Banks, Alan Trammell and Barry Larkin, plus Nomar Garciaparra, who looked like he was Cooperstown-bound while he was flirting with .400 during his age-26 season. Correa’s comps through his age-26 season per Baseball-Reference.com — Cal Ripken Jr, at age 22, Francisco Lindor at ages 23-24 and Troy Tulowitzki at ages 25-26 — display the wide range of potential outcomes for the remainder of his career. Splitting the difference by doubling his WAR with a spate of Lindor-esque seasons might be enough to get Correa in.

Guardians: Jose Ramirez, 3B

Despite not turning 30 until September, Ramirez, who has 38.3 WAR, is closer to an ironclad lock than anyone in this group. Every third baseman with at least 70.0 WAR is in the Hall of Fame except the fast-gaining Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltre, who isn’t eligible until 2024. Ramirez is on pace for his third 30-homer, 100-RBI season, a total exceeded by just five third basemen — Nolan Arenado, Troy Glaus and Hall of Famers Chipper Jones, Eddie Mathews and Mike Schmidt — prior to age 30. And Ramirez is also likely to have a fourth 20-homer, 20-steal season. Only one third baseman, Howard Johnson, has ever had five such seasons. In other words: The Guardians picked the right guy to sign long-term.

Phillies: Bryce Harper, OF

For a little while this season, Harper looked like he had a real shot at winning his Hall of Fame-clinching third MVP. A broken left thumb suffered when he was hit by a pitch by Blake Snell ended those hopes and served as a reminder that Harper’s hard-charging style and generally rotten injury luck — he’ll play fewer than 120 games for the fifth time in 10 non-pandemic seasons — are the biggest obstacles between him and Cooperstown. On the other side, only 10 Hall of Famers had more homers prior to turning 30 than Harper (282), who also has 800 RBIs and needs 29 RBIs the rest of the season to surge past the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Rice, Cal Ripken Jr. through their age-29 seasons.

Padres: Manny Machado, 3B

It’s hard not to think of Beltre’s steady build towards the Hall of Fame when looking at the stealthily productive Machado — except Machado, with 49.2 WAR, is much further along at age 30 than Beltre, who collected 41.3 WAR prior to turning 30 and 52.2 WAR in his 30s. If Machado does that in his 30s, he’ll have a strong case for supplanting Mike Schmidt as the best third baseman of all-time. Even if he doesn’t have a Beltre-esque finishing kick, Machado can cement his candidacy by having a handful of seasons like his average season from 2015-22 (29 homers, 84 RBIs and an OPS+ of 130),

Nationals: Juan Soto, OF

Sure, he’s about as likely to wear a Nationals hat on his Hall of Fame plaque as the rest of us are to win the Home Run Derby, And sure, Soto is just 23 years old — younger than eight of the 11 players we’ll list in our daydreaming section. But here’s Soto’s similar batters through age 22: Trout, Frank Robinson, Harper, Cabrera, Mickey Mantle, Tony Conigliaro, Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, Giancarlo Stanton and Ken Griffey Jr. In other words, Soto is as far along a Hall of Fame path as anyone has ever been before he could legally rent a car.

HAD A HALL OF FAME-WORTHY FIRST ACT, BUT…

…these three will need either an unexpected resurgence or for their splashy entrances to stand out during the five-year waiting period between retirement and appearing on the ballot for the first time.

Giants: Evan Longoria, 3B

Longoria ranks sixth among active position players in WAR (57.8) and is already just the seventh third baseman to hit at least 300 homers, collect at least 1,200 RBIs and win at least three Gold Gloves. In a reflection of how hard it is to evaluate third basemen, only two — Mike Schmidt and Ron Santo — are in the Hall of Fame, and only Schmidt made it in via the writer’s ballot. Longoria’s contract expires at the end of the year and there’s some conjecture he may retire at age 36 and after battling a litany of injuries since being traded to the Giants by the Rays. Like fellow 300/1,200/three Gold Glove club member Scott Rolen, Longoria’s candidacy may build upon his retirement.

Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner, P

Bumgarner looked like a potential first-ballot Hall of Famer when he recorded 100 wins with a 2.99 ERA by the end of the 2016 season, at which point he was just 27. But he’s 32-48 with a 3.99 ERA in 126 starts since then, which means he’s probably going to need his playoff dominance during the Giants’ three World Series runs to vault him into the Hall of Fame. I am happy to drive that bandwagon, because going 8-3 with a 2.11 ERA in 16 playoff starts — including 2-0 with two shutouts in two wild card game starts and 4-0 with a 0.25 ERA and one save in five World Series appearances — is one of the greatest feats in baseball history.

Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B

Why keep homegrown Hall of Fame-bound third baseman Nolan Arenado when you can just alienate him, pay another team $51 million to take him off your hands and then sign a third baseman who is good but not nearly as good as your aforementioned homegrown Hall of Fame-bound third baseman? Bryant looked like he was on his way after his first two seasons, when he racked up 12.6 in WAR, won the Rookie of the Year and MVP and fielded the final out of the Cubs’ first championship in 108 years. But he hasn’t been quite as transcendent since then (.276 with 106 homers, 298 RBIs, an OPS+ of 127 and 16.4 WAR) and has been limited to 33 games with the Rockies this season due to back woes, which is a concern for someone now in his 30s. With six years left on his deal (Arenado would probably suggest Bryant rent, not buy), Bryant has time to rack up the big power numbers. But as Larry Walker and Todd Helton can tell him, the electorate is skeptical of careers built in Colorado.

GOOD STARTS, BUT A LONG WAY TO GO

These six players are in the early stages of building a Hall of Fame case, but they’ll need many more years of good health and good production to emerge as serious candidates.

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B

Is this the first Hall of Fame father-and-son duo? At 23 and with 11.9 worth of WAR, son is already ahead of Dad, who had 9.1 WAR at the end of his age-23 season. And son would already have an MVP to match his Dad’s if not for Shohei Ohtani’s unicorn-ness last season, when Vladdy Jr. led the AL in runs, home runs on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases. Dad led the league in a category just four times (hits once, runs once and total bases twice). Now Vladdy Jr.’s just got to do what his Dad did for a decade.

Red Sox: Rafael Devers, 3B

We considered putting shortstop Xander Bogaerts or pitcher Chris Sale (seriously, he’s had a rough go of it lately, but he’s far along a Hall of Fame path) here, but when David Ortiz says someone reminds him of him, well, we listen. Devers doesn’t turn 26 until October but already has 134 homers and 422 RBIs, figures Ortiz didn’t reach until his age-28 and age-29 seasons, respectively. Sticking at third base would help Devers’ Hall of Fame chances, but the numbers are strong enough to handle a move across the diamond or to designated hitter.

Rangers: Corey Seager, SS

Seager’s WAR is surprisingly low (24.1) for a player who just signed a 10-year deal, but he’s played more than 100 games just three times in his first six full seasons. If he can stay healthy for the bulk of the next decade, the red-hot run he’s on in his first season in Texas (22 homers and 52 RBIs in 88 games) could provide him a track to Cooperstown.

Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr., OF

Speaking of needing good health: Acuna nearly went 40-40 as a 21-year-old in 2019 — and then posted an OPS+ of 156 in 2020-21, when he played just 128 games due to the pandemic and a torn ACL. He’s still rounding into form after missing most of the first month of this season but still has eight homers, 20 stolen bases and a 115 OPS+ in 59 games. There’s plenty of time for him to craft a no-doubt Hall of Fame career in Atlanta a la Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones (don’t get me started on how Andruw should already be in).

Marlins: Sandy Alcantara, P

There’s nothing riskier than projecting greatness for a starting pitcher, but it’s hard not to hope Alcantara — a true workhorse — can buck the odds and produce a Pedro Martinez-esque run of brilliance that’ll build his Hall of Fame case. Alcantara’s 1.76 ERA this season works out to an ERA+ of 233. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, only Martinez (1999-2000) and Greg Maddux (1994-95) have produced a better ERA+ in a season of 100 games or more.

Brewers: Josh Hader, P

Actually, projecting sustained greatness for a relief pitcher might be an even riskier endeavor than trying to do it for a starter. Picking Hader here is as much an acknowledgement that Christian Yelich — who has an MVP and a career WAR of 35.0 but has been an average player since 2020 — might not regain his Cooperstown-caliber form. It’s also an acknowledgment that at age 28, Hader has 123 saves — more than Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera as well as potential inductee Billy Wagner — and is averaging 15.4 strikeouts per nine innings, the most ever by a pitcher through his age-28 season.

DAYDREAMING OF THE 2030s

Remember what we said about the previous group? Double that here. 

Rays: Wander Franco, SS

Collecting 5.2 WAR in his first 508 career at-bats is a reminder we were all not doing that at age 21.

Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C

Want to hear the craziest stat of all? Rutschman is older than Juan Soto! But Rutschman, 24, has plenty of time to build a Buster Posey-esque case by remaining a 20-homer hitting catcher and plus-defender into his early 30s.

White Sox: Tim Anderson, SS

At 29, Anderson is a little (OK, a lot) old to be in this group, but with no other obvious short- or long-term Hall of Fame candidates on the White Sox, we’re willing to take a chance he can carry his mid-to-late 20s production (he’s hitting .320 with an OPS+ of 124 since 2019) well into his 30s.

Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, OF

With a rare combination of skills and personality, Rodriguez sure looked like baseball’s next breakout superstar during All-Star Week. Can the budding 30-30 threat be the one to break the Mariners’ curse? The top six players in franchise history per WAR — Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson, surefire Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, potential Hall of Famer Felix Hernandez and we-all-know-why-he’s-not-in-the-Hall-of-Fame Alex Rodriguez — played in exactly zero World Series games. Which makes sense since the Mariners have played in exactly zero World Series games. 

Pirates: Oneil Cruz, SS

The Mariners are the only team that’s gone longer without playing in a World Series than the Pirates. It’s impossible to trust Bob Nutting to not screw things up, but what do we have if we can’t envision Cruz — also older than Juan Soto! — not only leading the Pirates to the promised land but becoming the first Hall of Fame position player with his Statcast readings on his plaque?

YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS OURS

No, seriously. This is where we wave our hand across the room, a la Lyle Lanley searching for a monorail conductor, and settle on the first player we see.

Cubs: You could not try to screw things up as badly as the Cubs have since winning the World Series in 2016. Back then, the roster was filled with 20-somethings with a projectable Hall of Fame path (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez) and 30-somethings (Jon Lester, Ben Zobrist). Now? The next Cubs Hall of Famer is in the minor leagues somewhere, or maybe a Little League field. (Here’s where we lament Andrelton Simmons, an Ozzie Smith-esque defender in his prime, falling off a cliff)

Athletics: At any point in the last three years, we could have suggested Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman or Starling Marte — all Cooperstown long shots, but all legitimate stars — for this spot. But nothing is more consistent in baseball history than Athletics ownership — wherever the team is located — crying poor and tearing things down. Perhaps things will be different in Las Vegas.