When it comes to presenting a case for one of his clients, nobody lays it on any thicker than Scott Boras.
But baseball’s super agent might have actually undersold Carlos Correa’s credentials and potential impact when he riffed on the free agent shortstop during the general manager meetings last month.
Yes, Correa is a World Series-winning shortstop who is terrific both at the plate and in the field and a rock-solid clubhouse leader. But despite hitting free agency for a second straight winter after opting out of his “three-year” deal with the Minnesota Twins, Correa is among the youngest players in this year’s class of free agents — if you want to feel even older than you already feel, Correa turned 28 on Sept. 22, which means he was born on the day in 1994 when “Friends” debuted on NBC — and the youngest player in the majors who can make a case for already being on a Hall of Fame fast track.
Per Baseball-Reference, Correa has accumulated 39.5 WAR through his age-27 season (Baseball-Reference considers a player’s age his age as of July 1 of any season). Only five shortstops have collected more WAR through their age-27 season — Alex Rodriguez, who’s not in the Hall of Fame for obvious reasons, and Hall of Famers Arky Vaughn, Robin Young, Cal Ripken Jr. and Willie Wells.
So on top of everything else, the team that signs Correa not only has a chance to boost itself into consistent championship contention, it might also get the prestige of Correa wearing its hat on his Hall of Fame plaque circa the late 2030s or so. Here are the DraftKings odds for 10 teams to keep an eye on as the Correa sweepstakes heat up with the start of the winter meetings this weekend, followed by our analysis of his potential destinations.
- Cubs +225
- Cardinals +550
- Twins +600
- Phillies +700
- Giants +750
- Yankees +750
- Red Sox +800
- Dodgers +1000
- Orioles +1000
- Tigers +7500
The teardown of their largely young and homegrown 2016 World Series champions meant the Cubs were one of just two teams who didn’t have even a longshot Hall of Fame candidate on their roster last summer. Handing a few hundred million dollars to Correa could solve that problem and win back some goodwill for Cubs management, which has spoken of making big moves this winter while trying to hasten the rebuilding process in an NL Central that’s in a constant state of flux outside the St. Louis Cardinals.
Speaking of the Cardinals, as we noted with the Trea Turner rundown yesterday, they typically trade for their big additions. Signing Correa last winter was atypical of the small-market Twins, who seem committed to making him the type of offer that would keep him in Minnesota for the long-term. The Twins might have to almost double their previous biggest contract, the eight-year, $184 million deal they gave homegrown star Joe Mauer prior to the 2010 season, to get it done. But that could allow the Twins to have one potential Hall of Famer in uniform as the candidacy of another — Mauer is due to hit the ballot next winter — builds.
The Phillies will surely be in the market for one of the star shortstops, but superstar Bryce Harper and general manager Dave Dombrowski, respectively, already have well-established ties with Turner and Xander Bogaerts. The Giants can also be expected to pivot to one of the shortstops if their pursuit of Aaron Judge falls short and Correa offers the type of franchise player shine that the club is seeking in the post-Buster Posey era.
The Red Sox and Dodgers could just re-sign their own superstar shortstops in Bogaerts and Turner, but neither seems particularly likely at the moment, which means a star-for-star swap involving Correa landing with one of the east coast superpowers can’t be ruled out. The problems for the Dodgers, who are specializing lately in short deals with a high AAV, might be Correa’s desire for a long-term deal as well as his association with the sign-stealing Astros, who knocked off the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series.
Speaking of coastal superpowers still smarting over 2017…the idea of Correa, the defiant face of those Astros, signing with the Yankees is back page tabloid gold even before recalling his comments that Derek Jeter didn’t deserve to win all those Gold Gloves. But the latter issue wouldn’t be a hurdle for Brian Cashman, whose relationship with Jeter can most charitably be described as frosty. And with the Yankees in need of a jolt and a different kind of edge than the one provided by last winter’s addition of Josh Donaldson, it’d be amusing to watch New York fans employ their familiar brand of selective morality upon greeting Correa with a standing ovation at the 2023 home opener.
The Orioles reportedly made Correa a $300 million offer last season, when they were coming off a four-season stretch in which they lost 368 games. But the Orioles improved to 83-79 in 2022 and seem ready to establish themselves as a long-term contender post-tank, a la the Astros in the middle of the 2010s. What better way to usher in that era than by signing Correa, who was the first overall pick of the 2012 draft by the rebuilding Astros and won the Rookie of the Year in 2015, when Houston made the first playoff appearance of its current run?
There’s seven teams listed in between the Orioles and Tigers and 13 teams listed after Detroit, all with +10000 odds. The Tigers are certainly a longshot, but they’re an intriguing one as a team managed by A.J. Hinch — Correa’s manager for his first five seasons in Houston — that is looking to end a six-season stretch of sub-.500 finishes and has Miguel Cabrera’s contract coming off the books once he retires following the 2023 campaign. The Tigers already have a $100 million shortstop in Javier Baez, who had a disastrous first season in Motown but can easily be deployed around the infield as a Ben Zobrist type. Maybe the second foray into the deep end of the shortstop market would be the charm for the Tigers.
