The three previous full Major League Baseball seasons have further confirmed that Memorial Day weekend — once a pivotal mile marker in separating the haves from the have-nots — is no longer an accurate barometer when it comes to trying to forecast the serious World Series contenders.
Nor is a scan of the standings heading into Memorial Day weekend the most reliable way to project who will finish with the best record in baseball.
Of the last three teams to end the season with baseball’s best record, only last year’s Los Angeles Dodgers entered the Friday before Memorial Day as the no. 1 seed in their league. The Dodgers, who finished 111-51, were 30-14 heading into May 27, 1 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees.
In 2019, the Houston Astros, who would finish 107-55, headed into Memorial Day weekend on May 24 with a 33-18 record, the third-best in the majors behind another pair of American League clubs, the Minnesota Twins (33-16) and the Yankees (32-17).
In between, the San Diego Padres hit the Friday before Memorial Day 2021 with a 32-19 record — and finished the season 79-83 and a whopping 28 games behind the San Francisco Giants, who were 30-20 and tied for the fourth-best record in baseball through the games of May 27.
All of which is to say the Tampa Bay Rays, a robust 36-15 heading into play today and assured of possessing baseball’s best record by the time everyone checks out of the office early tomorrow afternoon, are no guarantee to be the top seed in the playoffs come early October.
But if not the Rays, then who? Here’s three other possibilities — two whose odds rank right behind Tampa Bay and a longer shot — to finish with the best record in baseball. All odds from DraftKings as of May 25.
TAMPA BAY RAYS (+200)
Why the Rays: Well, since baseball expanded to four divisions in 1969, only four teams have had a better record through 51 games. The 2001 Seattle Mariners (39-12 on their way to 116-46), the 1984 Detroit Tigers (39-12 on their way to 104-58) and 1998 Yankees (38-13 on their way to 114-48) all easily finished with the best record in baseball, while the 1998 Atlanta Braves (37-14 on their way to 106-56) had the misfortune of racing out to a torrid start at the same time as the Yankees.
These Rays are a complete team that leads the majors in home runs (97), batting average (.271), on-base percentage (.346) and slugging percentage (.501) as well as ranking fifth in ERA at 3.70. They do everything well.
Why not the Rays? They can’t possibly keep creating starting pitchers out of some lab in Tampa, right? Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery after three sensational starts while Drew Rasmussen, who had a 2.62 ERA in eight starts, is out for at least two months with a forearm injury suffered two weeks ago. They have nine players with an OPS+ north of 110, but among that group, only Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena entered the season with an OPS+ of 110 or better. And the small-market Rays aren’t likely to make the type of splashy deadline acquisition that sparks a surge over the final two months.
ATLANTA BRAVES (+300)
Why the Braves: The perpetual contenders lead the NL in both OPS (.787) and ERA (3.62). Ronald Acuna Jr. (.330 with 11 homers and 20 stolen bases) is channeling his inner Eric Davis circa 1986-87. His closest competition for NL MVP honors might be teammate Sean Murphy (10 homers, 36 RBIs and an OPS+ of 154 while playing catcher). Spencer Strider (2.97 ERA with 97 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings) is the new Chris Sale while the Braves have generated yet another homegrown ace in Bryce Elder (3-0 with a 2.01 ERA in 10 starts). And few general managers are more aggressive at the deadline than Alex Anthopoulos, who went all-in with a sub-.500 team in 2021 and was rewarded with a World Series championship.
Why not the Braves? The pitching is awfully top-heavy with two-fifths of the rotation — Max Fried and Kyle Wright — on the injured list with arm ailments. With Fried and Wright out, the Braves have gone 0-3 in bullpen games over the last two weeks. They lead the NL in ERA despite a 4.05 ERA from their relievers, who have been charged with 10 blown saves. A.J. Minter has a 7.36 ERA as a fill-in closer for Raisel Iglesias, who missed the first five weeks with a shoulder injury. Plus, if anyone knows the crapshoot of the playoffs, it’s the Braves, who won it all after squeaking in with 88 wins in 2021 and then got knocked out in the Division Series after racking up 101 wins last year. Better just to get in than to knock themselves out over six months, right?
LOS ANGELES DODGERS (+400)
Why the Dodgers: They’re the Dodgers, who have won at least 100 games in four of the last five full seasons, went to the World Series off a 92-win season in 2018 and won at a 116-win pace during the shortened 2020 campaign. They started slow-ish (16-13 through April) but are 15-7 this month, tied with the Yankees for the best mark in baseball. And there’s probably more of that to come: The Dodgers are 186-94, a winning percentage of .664, after the All-Star Break in the last four full seasons. No matter how safely ensconced they are in a playoff spot come the trade deadline, team president Andrew Friedman will make moves to upgrade a championship-or-bust roster.
Why not the Dodgers? For once, they might just be very good and not great. The Dodgers rank amongst the top 10 in the majors in just three major offensive categories — they’re second with 82 homers, fourth with a .450 slugging percentage and tied for fifth with a .777 OPS — while ranking 17th with a 4.25 ERA, which would be the franchise’s highest mark since 2005 (4.38). Young starters Michael Grove, Dustin May and Julio Urias are all on the injured list while 2022 breakout star Tony Gonsolin is averaging fewer than five innings per outing. Clayton Kershaw (2.98 ERA in 10 starts) is his usual excellent self but has qualified for the ERA title just once since 2018.
And if we think the Braves recognize the regular season is mostly just a tune-up, how do we think the Dodgers feel after going 111-51 and getting wiped out by the Padres — who won 22 fewer regular season games — in a four-game Division Series last year? With an eminently winnable NL West, it’d be impossible to blame the Dodgers for just doing enough to get into the tournament.
TEXAS RANGERS (+2200)
Why the Rangers: We thought about the Yankees (+750) or Baltimore Orioles (+3000) here, but even with the balanced schedule limiting the number of intradivisional games, the members of a historically tough AL East are likely to beat each other up enough so that none of them finish with the best record in baseball.
But the Rangers? Now they’re an interesting long shot. At 31-18, the Rangers have the second-best record in the majors, just four games behind the Rays. The two teams have yet to play each other this season. The Rangers rank behind only the Rays in batting average (.270), on-base percentage (.339) and OPS (.790). And thanks to Nathan Eovaldi, who is authoring another breakout season at age 33, a pitching staff that has been mostly Jacob deGrom-less is tied for sixth in the majors in ERA (3.77) and fifth in WHIP (1.20).
And a team that can hit and pitch has one of the game’s best managers (Bruce Bochy) calling the shots when he could have easily sat home and prepared to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer. While the Giants never won more than 94 games as Bochy oversaw their every-other-year dynasty in the early 2010s, it’s easy to envision the Rangers remaining unrelenting all season, a la the revitalized New York Mets under Buck Showalter last year, and surging past 100 wins while remaining in contention for the best record in baseball well into September.
