The MLB season is coming up on its halfway mark, but even with 80-plus games left, the oddsmakers only see two viable candidates to win National League Rookie of the Year.
Diamondbacks sensation Corbin Carroll remains the heavy favorite to claim the award with -500 odds. The only true challenger, according to BetMGM, is Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz, who has odds of +500, as of June 28th.
Check out the distance between Carroll and De La Cruz compared to the rest of the top-10 candidates:
- Corbin Carroll -500
- Elly DeLa Cruz +500
- Eury Perez +3000
- Mat McLain +6600
- Francisco Alvarez +8000
- Bobby Miller +8000
- Andrew Abbott +8000
- Kodai Senga +8000
- Jordan Walker +8000
- Spencer Steer +8000
Both have been nothing short of phenomenal this season. Carroll, though, gets the nod because he has been with the big league team all season.
Carroll is batting .293 with 17 home runs, 44 RBIs, 60 runs scored and 23 stolen bases. Despite a recent mini-slump, he has an OPS+ of 154 and has accumulated 3.6 WAR, which is No. 2 overall in the National League behind only Ronald Acuna.
Normally those types of numbers would make Carroll the easy winner, but De La Cruz had a ton of hype after a dominant year in Triple-A and has been very good with the Reds.
De La Cruz is batting .299 on the year with three homers, 10 RBIs, 19 runs scored and eight stolen bases in 84 plate appearances. He has an OPS+ of 132 but the issue is that De La Cruz has only played in 19 games this year after being called up about a month ago.
If he can keep it up and Carroll slows down, this could become a legitimate race between the pair. However, De La Cruz has a BABIP of .417 and a strikeout rate of 31%, which suggests regression will be coming.
Carroll’s advanced stats, meanwhile look solid, and while he may not put up these types of numbers all season long there is little reason to believe he will fall off a cliff with his production.
Both players have recently been ranked the No. 1 prospect in MLB by reputable outlets, so it’s not a surprise to see them leading the way in the National League Rookie of the Year race. Carroll is expected to claim the award, and if not, De La Cruz looks like the other only true candidate.
Here is a look at the extreme longshots to win the Rookie of the Year award in the National League, according to BetMGM on June 28:
- James Outman +10000
- Emmett Sheehan +10000
- Joey Wiemer +12500
- AJ Smith Shawver +12500
- Miguel Vargas +12500
- Ezequiel Tovar +12500
- Matt Mervis +12500
- Matthew Liberatore +12500
- Brett Baty +12500
- Alec Burleson +12500
- Ji-hwan Bae +12500
- Casey Schmitt +12500
- Dominic Fletcher +12500
- Patrick Bailey +12500
- Luis Matos +12500
- Michael Busch +15000
- Brandon Pfaadt +15000
- Hayden Wesnewski +15000
- Jared Shuster +20000
- Marco Luciano +20000
- Gavin Stone +20000
- Brice Turang +20000
- Brenton Doyle +20000
