There’s no better way to measure the unpredictable nature of the 2023 Major League Baseball season than by looking at the World Series favorites then and now.
Then: Boring, here’s the last three champions (the Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers) and three of the most active teams last winter (the New York Yankees, San Diego Padres and New York Mets).
Now: Exciting and exit stage left the Yankees, Padres and Mets, all of whom are afterthoughts with a little less than a third of the season remaining. Make room inside the inner circle of championship contenders for the long-suffering Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles! And technically you too, Tampa Bay Rays, but…probably not.
With the MLB trade deadline almost two weeks in the rearview mirror, here’s a look at 12 candidates (none of whom are located in New York or San Diego) in an intriguing World Series chase. All odds from DraftKings as of Aug. 14.
Atlanta Braves (now +330, Opening Day +750)
The Braves are the best and most complete team in baseball, but ask them how that tended to work out in the ‘90s. Outside of a historic doubleheader vanquishing of the Mets on Saturday, Atlanta’s starting pitching has been suspect recently, which could of course be an issue in a short series.
Los Angeles Dodgers (now +450, Opening Day +850)
After spending the last decade channeling their inner ‘90s Braves, the Dodgers scaled back last winter. It might have worked! After toying with the NL West in the first half, they’re a major league-best 20-8 since the All-Star Break. A terrific lineup and bullpen will have to do the heavy lifting in the playoffs for Los Angeles, which has just two starting pitchers among its top 12 in Baseball Reference WAR.
Houston Astros (now +800, Opening Day +600)
No one’s won back-to-back championships since the Yankees’ 1998-2000 dynasty. But the Mets’ unprecedented teardown resulted in a reunion between the defending World Series champions and their 2022 ace, Justin Verlander. The Astros now have six starting pitchers for five spots as well as the highest-scoring offense in the AL since the All-Star Break. Sorry America, here they come again.
Tampa Bay Rays (now +850, Opening Day +1900)
These odds might have spiked by the time you read this — and not because the Rays opened the season a record-tying 13-0 and have since joined the 1982 Braves and 1987 Milwaukee Brewers in wondering where the mojo went. Tampa Bay is 58-49 since then but the bigger concern are the absences of Cy Young contender Shane McClanahan, who is out for the regular season with a forearm injury, and budding superstar Wander Franco, who was placed on the restricted list today while MLB investigates some unsettling social media posts centered around Franco. Look anywhere else.
Texas Rangers (now +900, Opening Day +4500)
Verlander vs. Max Scherzer in Game 7 of the AL Championship Series, who says no? Everyone figured the Rangers, who have never won the World Series, weren’t kidding around when they coaxed Hall of Fame-bound manager Bruce Bochy out of retirement, but just in case there was any doubt as to their intentions, they went even more all-in at the deadline by acquiring Scherzer and Aroldis Chapman. Texas is a robust 10-2 since the deadline and has the best postseason bullpen manager of all-time ready for October.
Baltimore Orioles (now +1000, Opening Day +8000)
Ownership seems determined to step on rakes and overshadow one of the best stories in baseball, but the Orioles — who have gone longer without being swept in a series than anyone since World War II and now have the best record in the AL — just keep winning. With ownership seemingly uninterested in adding to its homegrown core — the biggest trade deadline addition was mid-rotation starter Jack Flaherty — this might be Baltimore’s best chance to win it all for the first time since 1983.
Minnesota Twins (now +1300, Opening Day +3500)
Again, someone has to win the AL Central and the opportunity to generate some momentum by hosting a best-of-three wild card series. The Twins seem to be the only team trying in the division and have a solid 1-2 top of the rotation duo in Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray. Stranger things have happened, as those of us who remember the Homer Hankie Twins winning the 1987 World Series can attest.
Philadelphia Phillies (now +1500, Opening Day +1800)
The Phillies didn’t look like World Series contenders last year until October and, at 11 1/2 games behind the Braves in the NL East, will almost certainly have to take the long road again this year. But a veteran core with knowledge of what it takes to win three rounds should not be underestimated. And future Hall of Famer Dave Dombrowski might have done it again at the deadline with Michael Lorenzen, whose no-hitter in front of his crying Mom, wife and infant daughter last Wednesday was the most magical moment of the season.
Seattle Mariners (now +4000, Opening Day +1900)
It’s hard to count out the Mariners, who mounted a stirring comeback in the second half last season to end the longest postseason drought in the four major North American pro sports. But it’s been a strange season for Seattle, which traded closer Paul Sewald at the deadline yet will enter today 1 1/2 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the race for the final wild card spot.
Milwaukee Brewers (now +2500, Opening Day +3500)
The Brewers’ window appeared to close last year, but they’ve been the steadiest team in a wild NL Central and open today with a season-high 3 1/2-game lead. A return to form for Christian Yelich and a healthy Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff joining Corbin Burnes atop the rotation makes Milwaukee an intriguing sleeper.
Chicago Cubs (now +5500, Opening Day +9000)
Management seemed determined to sell off at the deadline, but the Cubs forced a pivot by winning eight straight in late July. If Chicago can emerge from a middling wild card race, the resurgent Cody Bellinger and darkhorse Cy Young contender Justin Steele could generate an interesting October in the Windy City.
Los Angeles Angels (now +30000, Opening Day +4500)
Sorry, force of habit. But we’ll always have that 24-hour period where the Angels said they weren’t going to sell and Shohei Ohtani flirted with a no-hitter in the first game of a doubleheader and then hit two homers in the second game.
