Corbin Carroll continued to obliterate the baseball on Wednesday, going 4-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs in the Diamondbacks’ 6-2 win over the Nationals.
Arizona has been one of the most pleasant surprises in Major League Baseball, as it sits two games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the N.L. West after 62 games.
Several different players have played outsized roles for the D-Backs, but no one moreso than the 22-year-old outfielder who is on a fast track to superstardom.
Carroll has positioned himself as the odds-on favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year with -135 odds at DraftKings, but it’s time to think bigger with this kid.
Carroll is batting .300 on the season with 11 home runs, 27 RBIs, 43 runs scored, 18 stolen bases and an OPS+ of 153. He also plays a premium position in center field and does it well.
Carroll has accumulated 2.8 Wins Above Replacement in 59 games this season, which is third in the National League among position players, according to Fangraphs. (Teammate Zac Gallen is actually No. 1, but the best starting pitcher usually wins the Cy Young, not MVP.)
Despite this, his National League Most Valuable Player odds are laughably long.
At BetMGM, Carroll is listed at 150-to-1 to win the award, which is tied for 26th. FanDuel has him at 200-to-1, tied for 31st-best in the N.L. (So, um, yeah, sign up for FanDuel before these odds change.)
Incredibly, Carroll was not even listed among the options to win MVP at DraftKings on Thursday morning. He was finally added, with 200-to-1 odds, later in the day.
It’s clear the market is sleeping on Carroll, but he has the capacity to keep things rolling.
The Athletic’s Keith Law, arguably the most respected minor league analyst in baseball media, named Carroll his No. 1 overall prospect heading into the season, and is one of many scouts who expected greatness.
Carroll has been great so far, and while FanGraphs projects a drop in OPS+ to 118 from here on out, that would still result in an accumulation of 2.3 WAR because of his ability to impact the game on offense, defense and the bases.
Based on that pedestrian forecast, Carroll would finish with 5.1 WAR on the season. Historically, MVP winners have generally accumulated between 7-10 WAR per year, so Carroll would need to outplay that projection to be in the mix.
But if he can continue the current pace? Extrapolating out his current production would get Carroll to right around 7.0 WAR on the year.
Caroll has a BABIP of .342 on the season, which is high and generally not completely sustainable, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both above league average, so something around .330 the rest of the way is not out of the question.
Defensively, he has been given a negative-WAR thus far, but the scouting community has consistently graded him as a plus defender in center field, and it’s expected to help his case, not hurt it, come voting season.
It’s hard to win MVP. Ronald Acuna is the heavy favorite in the National League right now at +115 odds, according to FanDuel.
He has a strong track record and is off to a great start in 2023 with an OPS+ of 156. Acuna is projected to out-hit Carroll the rest of the way, although it is fair to point out his Total WAR of 2.9 is only a fraction ahead of Carroll so far despite 38 more plate appearances.
Acuna has shown no ill effects of the torn ACL that ended his season prematurely in 2022, and if he remains healthy, it will be hard for anyone to catch him for the prestigious hardware.
Even if he does suffer a long-term injury, stars like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Pete Alonso could all be waiting in the wings to take over as the favorite.
But Carroll is clearly not getting his due. The Diamondbacks’ odds to win the N.L. West and to make the playoffs are getting shorter by the day.
For some reason, Carroll’s MVP odds have not taken the same leap. That’s a questionable decision by the sportsbooks, but a potentially lucrative one for bettors who get him at +20000 to win National League MVP.
