MLB Betting: Nine Teams That Could Go From Under .500 To The Playoffs

Trying to identify on Memorial Day the Major League Baseball team that will finish the season with the best record is a challenge. 

But it was easy compared to waiting a few days for the calendar to turn to June and then evaluating which .500 or worse teams might join the aforementioned top overall seed in the playoffs.

The task this season is triply difficult. Were the four teams that made the newly expanded 12-team playoffs after being under .500 through May 31 — the division-winning Cleveland Guardians and Atlanta Braves, the wild card Seattle Mariners and the National League pennant-winning Philadelphia Phillies — a sign of things to come?

Just a brief recap of the last 3 full regular seasons in MLB:
2019: Nationals win WS after being 24-33 after May 31

2021: Braves win the WS after starting 25-26 after May 31st

2022: Phillies make the WS after being 21-29 after May 31

— Bradley Anhouse (@Braddigan89) May 16, 2023

Or was the spate of playoff teams emerging from the back of the early-season pack an unusual but not unprecedented outlier in the wild card era? Four eventual playoff teams were .500 or worse through May 31 in 2007, when there was one wild card team per league, as well as in 2014, when two wild cards per league made the postseason.

The extra wild card from 2012 through 2021 generated a barely perceptible increase in the number of qualifiers who were .500 or worse as the sun rose on June 1. Thirteen such teams, an average of 1.4 per season, made the playoffs in those nine full seasons, up from 20 such teams — an average of 1.3 teams per season — from 1995 through 2011.

(Not surprisingly, when only the four division winners qualified for the playoffs from 1969 through 1993, there were just 17 playoff teams — an average of 0.7 per season — who were .500 or worse through May 31 of their playoff-bound seasons)

The third wrinkle this season is the burst of parity that may or may not be generated by the historic ineptitude of the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals, who ended May a combined 29-85 while lifting everyone else up as they sink further into the morass.

I predicted a 7-2 home stand.

Currently 1-2 with the A’s and Royals on deck.

7-2 still in play

— Peter Pratt 🍷 (@MiamiMarlins_UK) June 1, 2023

As of Wednesday night, 17 teams — including everyone in the AL East — had a winning record, tied for the second-most through May 31 in the wild card era behind 2000 and 2004 (18 teams with a winning record through May 31 apiece).

So there’s a decent chance that everyone in this year’s playoff field is already over .500. But…we haven’t even gotten to the mediocre states of the Central divisions, which will occupy the bulk of our focus as we evaluate the potential .500 or worse teams who could crash the party come October.

Here’s a look at nine potential candidates to emerge from the middle of the pack and our picks as to who will join the playoff field. All odds from DraftKings as of June 2.

Detroit Tigers (26-28, +1100 to make the playoffs)

The Tigers went 16-11 in May to become relevant for the first time since 2014, but the oddsmakers aren’t enamored. Frankly, it’s hard to blame them, with the Tigers ranking 29th in the majors in runs with 204 (just four more than the Athletics) and 20th in ERA at 4.45. It’d be neat to see Miguel Cabrera get one more shot on the October stage, but it’s not very likely.

Cleveland Guardians (25-31, +370 to make the playoffs)

The Guardians, who thought they’d rebuilt their offense with the additions of Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, rank 28th in the majors in runs scored. But the pitching pipeline is as prolific as ever (welcome to the show, Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee) and we’ll always trust in Terry Francona over the second half of a season.

Chicago White Sox (23-35, +1100 to make the playoffs)

A sentimental choice for sure after Liam Hendriks authored the greatest story of this season by coming back to make his debut on Memorial Day, fewer than six months after being diagnosed with Stage 4 non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.

But while the White Sox were better in May (15-14), they probably won’t get anywhere unless Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito rediscover their Cy Young-caliber form and spark a pitching staff that ranks 26th in the majors with a 4.95 ERA.

Philadelphia Phillies (25-31, +160 to make the playoffs)

Well, they did it last year, right? The Phillies are in better position now than in 2022, when they were 22-29 through June 1 before Joe Girardi was fired and replaced by Rob Thomson, and perpetually going-for-it general manager Dave Dombrowski will be active at the deadline if the Phillies are on the periphery of the race.

But even with the same cast of characters as last year, the Phillies — who rank 24th in the majors in both runs scored and ERA and have a run differential of minus-45 — might have dug too deep a hole this time.  

Cincinnati Reds (26-30, +1600 to make the playoffs)

With only one starting pitcher (Hunter Greene) possessing an ERA under 5.00 and a lineup that has just two players with a WAR north of 1.0, the Reds probably need another year of seasoning before contending. But the longer they hang around, the more likely it is they get a boost from minor league sensation Elly De La Cruz and 39-year-old rehabbing first baseman Joey Votto.

St. Louis Cardinals (25-32, +140 to make the playoffs)

A 15-13 May means the unthinkable — a 100-loss season — is no longer realistic and has carved a realistic path back to the postseason for the Cardinals, whose plus-7 run differential is the best in the division.

Future Hall of Famers Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt combined to hit .281 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs last month, though Miles Mikolas, the only starter with an ERA below 4,00, is going to need some help down the stretch. A #CardinalsDevilMagic trade deadline acquisition, anyone?

Chicago Cubs (24-31, +600 to make the playoffs)

Every outcome is in play for the quirky Cubs, who were were 14-13 through Apr. 30 despite a run differential of plus-43 and are in last place even though they’ve got three players (Marcus Stroman, Dansby Swanson and Justin Steele) with a WAR north of 2.0.

Cody Bellinger (1.5 WAR with a 124 OPS+) might be there too if not for the left knee injury that’s sidelined him since May 16. Maybe they’ll win the division, maybe they’ll finish last

San Francisco Giants (28-28, +175 to make the playoffs)

The Giants are appropriately just sort of hanging around after almost but not quite signing Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last winter. They’re 15th in the majors in runs scored and 12th in ERA, so they’re not great but they’re not bad. And with no superteam in the NL and the overachieving Marlins and Pirates hanging on to wild card spots, that might be enough to squeak into the playoffs.

San Diego Padres (26-30, -140 to make the playoffs)

We saved the most intriguing team for last because, well, the Padres are farther from the playoffs than any realistic contender other than the Phillies, who beat San Diego in the Cinderella NLCS last October. While the Padres rank eighth in the majors in ERA, their vaunted offense has yet to click.

Manny Machado is on the IL with a broken left hand and Juan Soto heated up just as Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. cooled off. But the Padres didn’t spend $250 million to sit idly by, so expect general manager A.J. Preller to wheel and deal at the deadline to try and get his team over the finish line.

THE PICKS: The Guardians and Cardinals will emerge from the mediocrity of the Central divisions and present quite a challenge for a 90-plus win team in the first round. And with room for only one of last year’s NLCS combatants in the playoffs, lean to the Padres, who are run by the guy who probably has to get to the postseason to save his job.