MLB Betting: Home Run, Stolen Base Predictions for the All-Star Game

The MLB All-Star Game, played by the same rules as a regulation game and almost entirely free of gimmickry, is a refreshing throwback for both baseball — whose commissioner, Rob Manfred, seems bored by the sport — and the concept of all-star games themselves, which have otherwise turned into Calvinball-esque monstrosities. 

But tonight’s All-Star Game will serve as a fascinating lab for the rule changes that have impacted baseball this season.

The over/under of 7.5 runs scored is right in line with recent historical trends. With one terrific pitcher after another trotting in from the bullpen, the American League and National League have combined for fewer than eight runs in 11 of the last 16 All-Star Games, including the last three Midsummer Classics dating back to 2019 (there was no game in 2020 due to the pandemic).

In addition, those that get on base usually stay there: The teams have combined to leave at least 14 runners on base in each of the last two games and in seven of the last 16.

MLB All-Star Game Quick Picks Contest (deadline 8:00 PM ET on 7/11/23)

1. Over or Under 7.5 total runs scored in the game?

2. Will any pitcher in the game record at least 3 strikeouts: Yes or No?

3. Will there be at least 1 run scored in the 1st 2 innings of the game: Yes or…

— 👑 Lord Of Props (@LordOfProps) July 11, 2023

But with so many new rules in place, pitchers may be challenged to turn back the offenses tonight, even at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park — which has the lowest park factor, per Baseball Savant, both this season and over the last three years.

With a pitch clock, the elimination of shifts and a limit on “disengagements” coupled with larger bases, teams are averaging 4.57 runs, 8.39 hits and 0.72 steals on 0.91 attempts per game this season, up from 4.28 runs, 816 hits and 0.51 steals on 0.68 attempts per game last season. Home runs are also up slightly, from 1.07 per game last season to 1.16 per game this season. 

So, too, is the Three True Outcomes — homers, walks and strikeouts — ratio, from 33.4 percent last year to 34.5 percent this year, which suggests nobody’s actually changing their approach, but that’s a rant for another time.

Even with the low-scoring nature of recent All-Star Games, there has been at least one homer hit in each of the last eight Midsummer Classics and in 13 of the last 16 overall (in other words, eventually, the best hitters get to the best pitchers).

Not only does the MLB All-Star Game draw more viewers than any other sport's All-Star Game, but so does the #HomeRunDerby

People love home runs! pic.twitter.com/oDcfAsn1ca

— Lev Akabas (@LevAkabas) July 10, 2023

And teams have combined for 15.9 hits over the last 16 All-Star Games, so a seasonal uptick in hits and a jump-start on the basepaths could turn the over into a winner.

Players, presumably not wanting to risk injury in a fun but ultimately meaningless exhibition game, have basically stopped trying to steal bases in the All-Star Game. Consecutive steal-less All-Star Games have increased the total of All-Star Game without a stolen base since 2003 to seven, equaling the total from 1965 through 2002. The theft-less 2003 All-Star Game ended a streak of 23 straight Midsummer Classics in which at least one base was stolen.

The stolen base has been such an afterthought that the last three steals — Yonder Alonso in the ninth inning of the AL’s 2-1, 10-inning win in 2017 and Pete Alonso and Paul DeJong pulling off a double steal in the eighth inning of the AL’s 4-3 win in 2019 — were produced by players who have combined to steal 58 bases in 2,365 big league games.

Four of the 14 players with at least 20 steals at the break — Wander Franco and Julio Rodriguez from the AL and Ronald Acuna Jr. and Corbin Carroll from the NL — will be in uniform tonight, along with three-time AL stolen base champ Whit Merrifield. 

Since the first MLB All-Star Game in 1933, there have been three players to rack up 15 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and 2 walk-off hits before the All-Star Break in a season:

⚾️ 1973 Bobby Bonds
⚾️ 2011 Matt Kemp
⚾️ 2023 Corbin Carroll

Carroll is the only rookie to do it. pic.twitter.com/ZnYd960QHb

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 8, 2023

Lastly, the composition of the pitching staffs might yield a higher-scoring game. The top two pitchers in the AL in ERA (Framber Valdez and Shane McClanahan) and three of the top five pitchers in the NL in ERA (Clayton Kershaw, Marcus Stroman and Bryce Elder) were selected to the All-Star Game but will not pitch. Nor will the unicorn Shohei Ohtani, who is limited to designated hitter duties due to a blister on his throwing hand.

Of course, since this is the All-Star Game, the starting pitchers — Gerrit Cole and Zac Gallen — rank fifth and sixth in the AL and NL in ERA, respectively, and they’ll be followed by a litany of worthy selections.

Still, the trends of the game circa 2023 have us comfortably leaning to the over tonight. Below are the rest of our picks for outright winner as well as an MVP and a look at the likeliest candidates to hit a homer and/or steal a base. Here’s hoping we fare better than last night (Mookie Betts over Adolis Garcia? Really?)!

MONEYLINE

Per FanDuel, the NL is the slightest of favorites at -110 (wager $10 to win $9.09) over the AL at -106 (wager $10 to win $9.43). Which reminds us that we’re roughly 800 words in and haven’t mentioned the best and quirkiest thing of all about the Major League All-Star Game: One league has been dominating the other for decades. 

The AL earned its ninth straight win with a 3-2 victory last year, which improved its record since 1998 to 22-2 and 29-7 since 1986. But as those of us of a certain age grew up being reminded about on an annual basis, the AL’s red-hot run was preceded by a 29-game stretch from 1960 through 1985 (there were two games played in 1960, 1961 and 1962) in which the NL went 26-3 and won 11 straight games from 1972 through 1982.

So as was the case last year and most of the last quarter-century: Do you ride the AL until the Junior Circuit gives you a reason not to do so, or do you feel this is finally the NL’s time?

HOME RUNS

Ten of the 13 players to reach the All-Star break with at least 20 homers will be in Seattle tonight. In other words: Park effect schmark effect, at least one fan is going home with a souvenir. As of early this afternoon EST, FanDuel has the home run odds for 18 players:

• Shohei Ohtani +520
• Mookie Betts +540
• J.D. Martinez +600
• Marcus Semien +600
• Ronald Acuna Jr. +600
• Sean Murphy +630
• Randy Arozarena +630
• Nolan Arenado +630
• Freddie Freeman +680
• Corey Seager +680
• Adolis Garcia +680
• Corbin Carroll +700
• Josh Jung +750
• Yandy Diaz +750
• Jonah Heim +750
• Orlando Arcia +800
• Austin Hays +870
• Luis Arraez +900

STOLEN BASES

There have been more than two steals in just two non-extra inning All-Star Games this century (2007 and 2011). And just one player, Starlin Castro in 2011, has stolen multiple bases in an All-Star Game in the last 30 years. (Starlin Castro stolen bases seems like a perfect Immaculate Grid answer)

But things might be different this year. As of early this afternoon EST, FanDuel has the stolen base odds for 12 players:

• Ronald Acuna Jr. +390
• Corbin Carroll +560
• Whit Merrifield +560
• Julio Rodriguez +580
• Wander Franco +600
• Kyle Tucker +680
• Randy Arozarena +790
• Geraldo Perdomo +900
• Adolis Garcia +900
• Ozzie Albies +900
• Jose Ramirez +940
• Shohei Ohtani +980

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

With 66 players in uniform, this is the ultimate crapshoot. FanDuel has 41 players listed as of early this afternoon, from Ohtani at +650 to the trio of Merrifield, George Kirby and Elias Diaz at +6500. (For the record, Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics is at +5500, and what could possibly be cooler than the All-Star representative from one of the worst teams of all-time winning the MVP with a late-inning pinch-hit homer?)

As neat as it would be to see Rooker become baseball’s version of John Scott, the likeliest winner is a position player starter. Giancarlo Stanton, who hit the game-tying two-run homer immediately before Byron Buxton’s homer in the 2022 All-Star Game, became the 61st position player and the 42nd starter to win MVP honors. Eighteen reserves have won, most recently Alex Bregman in 2018.

MLB All-Star Game MVP winners over the last five games 🏆

2022 – Giancarlo Stanton
2021 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2019 – Shane Bieber
2018 – Alex Bregman
2017 – Robinson Cano

Who will take home the honors tonight? pic.twitter.com/LqplPNYyr7

— bet365 US (@bet365_us) July 11, 2023

A pitcher has won the award just seven times, but the only two to do so this century — Cleveland’s Shane Bieber following a perfect inning of relief at his home park, Progressive Field, in 2019 and Mariano Rivera following a perfect inning of relief in his final All-Star Game in 2013 — were sentimental choices. The last true starting pitcher to win the award was Boston Red Sox ace Pedro Martinez, who threw two electric innings at Fenway Park in 1999.

If you’re looking for trends among position players, outfielders (24 winners) are the most-represented among MVP winners third baseman (four or five, depending on how you count Cal Ripken Jr. when he was elected at third base but started at shortstop in his last All-Star Game in 2001). Shortstops have the longest active drought (Miguel Tejada in 2005).

As for #narrative/sentimental choices such as the Mariners’ Rodriguez and Kirby or Seattle-area native Adley Rutschman? In the expansion era, only Martinez and Bieber have won the All-Star Game MVP at their home parks, while four players — Stanton and Rivera as well as best buddies forever Roger Clemens (1986 in Houston) and Mike Piazza (1999 in Philadelphia) have won in or near their hometowns.

THE PICKS

There are two homers and three stolen bases in a game that ends with 10 runs scored. And my 10-year-old daughter will no longer be able to say she’s never seen the NL win an All-Star Game (she doesn’t really care and will be watching something else on her phone or iPad) thanks to MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., who becomes the first player since J.D. Drew in 2008 to homer and steal a base in the All-Star Game as the Senior Circuit attempts to begin its own streak of dominance with a 6-4 win.