Let’s Win Two: Shohei Ohtani Following Ernie Banks’ Unlikely MVP Path

It’s difficult to find any sort of consensus in preseason predictions.

But one bit of common ground as Opening Day approached was that Los Angeles Angels two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani couldn’t possibly put together another season as good or better than the one he enjoyed last season, when he was the unanimous winner of the American League Most Valuable Player award — and if he did, he would certainly do so for a team that was at least in the playoff picture.

Except here we are, with the All-Star Game on the horizon, and Ohtani is…having as good or better a season than he did last year for a squad that is somehow even further from a wild card bid in an expanded field than it was in 2021, when there were only two wild card berths.

Ohtani leads the AL with a 4.9 WAR per Baseball Reference and is hitting .258 with 19 homers, 56 RBIs and 10 stolen bases and an OPS of .843, which is actually well below last year’s mark of .965.

Of course, an .843 OPS is still pretty good — 37 percent above the league average. And as much as Ohtani has “declined” at the plate, he’s ramped up his performance that much on the mound, where he is 9-4 with a career-best 2.38 ERA — which works out to an ERA+ of 166 — and 0.99 WHIP.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on Shohei Ohtani and the 2022 AL MVP award: "This year Ohtani has better numbers than last year. I think he will win it again this season". pic.twitter.com/s95ONMJgr3

— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) July 15, 2022

Each of the latter two figures would rank among the top five in the AL if Ohtani had enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (he’s three shy entering tonight’s games). He is also on pace to shatter his previous bests in strikeouts per nine innings (12.7) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.59).

Alas, Ohtani is putting up these superhuman numbers for a team that has managed to further regress around him. The Angels enter today with a 39-51 record, which has them further out of first place now (20 games behind the Houston Astros) than they were upon finishing 77-85 and 18 games back of the Astros last year.

The Angels are on pace to finish 70-92 and 14 games back of the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, who are tied for the second and third American League wild card berths at 47-43 (an 84-78 pace). Last season, Los Angeles finished 15 games behind the Red Sox and New York Yankees, who tied for the two wild card bids.

All of which leads to a debate that is boiling over even with almost half the season still to be played: Can Ohtani be the AL’s most valuable player over Aaron Judge when his team is likely headed for 90-plus losses and Judge’s New York Yankees are on pace to win more than 110 games?

Ohtani is now the clear favorite, with -105 odds at BetMGM and DraftKings entering today. Judge is at +165 at both books. No other player has odds shorter than +1000.

Despite Ohtani’s easy MVP win last season, history isn’t on the side of players who play for teams that finish .500 or worse. Ohtani was the 13th such player to earn the award (NL winner Bryce Harper became the second player to win the MVP for a team that finished exactly .500, following Robin Yount of the 1989 Milwaukee Brewers).

Only Ernie Banks — with the Chicago Cubs in 1958-59 — has won back-to-back MVPs for teams that finished with a losing record in both seasons. Pretty good company for Ohtani, who gives “Let’s Play Two” an entirely different meaning, but not so much for the Angels, who are the only franchise other than the Cubs to have multiple players win the MVP for a team that finished under .500. Hank Sauer won the MVP for the Cubs in 1952, as did Andre Dawson in 1987. Ohtani’s teammate, Mike Trout, won his second and third MVPs for the sub-.500 Angels in 2016 and 2019.

For a few weeks, it appeared as if Judge’s monstrous season and the accompanying narratives — he’s got a chance to become the first player since the steroid era to hit 60 homers in a season, all while playing centerfield at 6-foot-7 for the record-setting Yankees in his walk year — would remove any suspense from the MVP race.

But Judge has slowed a bit since June 24, a span in which he’s hit .179 with four homers and 13 RBIs in 18 games for the Yankees, who have gone 10-9. The rival Houston Astros have gone 15-4 in the same stretch — during which they threw a combined no-hitter against the Yankees — to pull within 3 1/2 games of New York for the best record in the AL and home field advantage in a potential AL Championship Series.

Since June 24, Ohtani is hitting .250 with four homers and 11 RBIs at the plate while going an eye-popping 3-0 with a 0.48 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 18 2/3 innings on the mound for the Angels…who have gone 5-13, the worst mark in the AL and worse than everyone in the majors except the Washington Nationals (5-14).

Of course, one could say Ohtani’s value is even more apparent as the Angels continue their nosedive. After all, 5-13 isn’t good, but 2-16 is even worse. And eight of Ohtani’s RBIs since June 24 have come in Los Angeles’ wins.

Or one could say the Ohtani-Judge debate inevitably growing more heated over the next 10 weeks is a sign the Most Valuable Player award should be renamed the Most Outstanding Player. Of that, for the second straight season, there is no debate.